When do you think the first proper night time storms will arrive?

[Sunny76]

My prediction is late May/early June, when the first proper blast of summer heat hits us, and the air becomes more humid with warmer nights.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

17th May, models looking better from 12th

[Met.]

Up here, July gets the most of this type of thing going by my records. In fact I've almost never seen storm overnight in June or August here.

[Roger J Smith]

Watch for a stormy period around 2 to 4 June. Whether they come at night or otherwise luck of the draw. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

No guarantee really. Some years are brilliant, whilst others can be very poor and we get unlucky and see them miss us entirely and end up over Holland. We saw that happen 5 years on the trot between 2007 and 2012, and reading topics that had the title “are overnight MCS’s a thing of the past”? Before they made a recovery during 2013-14. For this year, I’d say June. May is looking to be Very Northerly block themed this year. A complete reversal to last year. June should hopefully see a recovery. 

[Sunny76]

14 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

No guarantee really. Some years are brilliant, whilst others can be very poor and we get unlucky and see them miss us entirely and end up over Holland. We saw that happen 5 years on the trot between 2007 and 2012, and reading topics that had the title “are overnight MCS’s a thing of the past”? Before they made a recovery during 2013-14. For this year, I’d say June. May is looking to be Very Northerly block themed this year. A complete reversal to last year. June should hopefully see a recovery. 

I’m going with early June in the London, and south/south eastern areas of England, Midlands and east anglia. Maybe mid to late June for northern areas. 

I really think a widespread severe thunderstorm, or thundery period could happen next month, once we start to see temperatures approached the 27-28c mark.

[MP-R]

The 2007-2012 period really was pants for overnight thunderstorms, save for the 11th/12th August down here, but since then normality has returned with 2013 onwards producing at least one per year, 2017 being the best. May and July were best that year.

May can often be the most thundery month here so I wouldn't be surprised if later in the month we get the first episode.

Some of the best night storms I remember are as follows, and almost all were from plume events:

July 19th 2017 / May 27th 2017 / September 18th 2014 / July 18th 2014 / July 23rd 2013 / August 12th 2012 / June 25th 2009 / May 09th 2008 / September 24th and 30th 2006 / August 18th 2006 / July 06th 2006

A fair even spread of dates it would seem.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

7 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I’m going with early June in the London, and south/south eastern areas of England, Midlands and east anglia. Maybe mid to late June for northern areas. 

I really think a widespread severe thunderstorm, or thundery period could happen next month, once we start to see temperatures approached the 27-28c mark.

I hope so. I’d love a day/night of supercells and multicells enveloping the entire country. But I’ll take anything, certainly here in the U.K. where we aren’t often blessed with guaranteed humdingers year in, year out. Unlike places such as Texas, Colorado, all across the mid west and even places such as Italy and France. 

[Sunny76]

Just now, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I hope so. I’d love a day/night of supercells and multicells enveloping the entire country. But I’ll take anything, certainly here in the U.K. where we aren’t often blessed with guaranteed humdingers year in, year out. Unlike places such as Texas, Colorado, all across the mid west and even places such as Italy and France. 

I’m calling a 1980/82,83, or 1999 summer with a number of storms. Maybe even a 1987 summer with thundery periods mixed with cool days. 

[Sunny76]

4 minutes ago, MP-R said:

The 2007-2012 period really was pants for overnight thunderstorms, save for the 11th/12th August down here, but since then normality has returned with 2013 onwards producing at least one per year, 2017 being the best. May and July were best that year.

May can often be the most thundery month here so I wouldn't be surprised if later in the month we get the first episode.

Some of the best night storms I remember are as follows, and almost all were from plume events:

July 19th 2017 / May 27th 2017 / September 18th 2014 / July 18th 2014 / July 23rd 2013 / August 12th 2012 / June 25th 2009 / May 09th 2008 / September 24th and 30th 2006 / August 18th 2006 / July 06th 2006

A fair even spread of dates it would seem.

I think May 26th 2018 was quite severe, and we had a number of thundery days over that bank holiday and into early June, in and around the London area.

We got the late May storm of 2017, although it was a few rumbles, but I still noticed it as it still managed to wake me up lol.

July 2017 was very thundery, and it seemed to coincide with the deterioration of summer weather from that point on. Summer 17 was half decent until that point, but the storms heralded in a new cooler regime for the remainder, bar a few hot days in late August. 

June 2016, was also good for overnight storms. They seemed to last for a few hours, with one storm after another. 

I’ll predict the first Saturday of June will bring us a thundery spell. Just a prediction

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

4 minutes ago, MP-R said:

The 2007-2012 period really was pants for overnight thunderstorms, save for the 11th/12th August down here, but since then normality has returned with 2013 onwards producing at least one per year, 2017 being the best. May and July were best that year.

May can often be the most thundery month here so I wouldn't be surprised if later in the month we get the first episode.

Some of the best night storms I remember are as follows, and almost all were from plume events:

July 19th 2017 / May 27th 2017 / September 18th 2014 / July 18th 2014 / July 23rd 2013 / August 12th 2012 / June 25th 2009 / May 09th 2008 / September 24th and 30th 2006 / August 18th 2006 / July 06th 2006

A fair even spread of dates it would seem.

Even these most recent storms, which weren’t bad at all. 27th July last year saw incredible Multicellular complexes drift up from the S and up the east coast, and of course late May last year where London saw that epic storm come up from France/Belgium, still don’t stack up that close to what I recall seeing all through my 90’s childhood. Some of them lasted a good 10 hours or more throughout the entire night, and were in the category of frightening at their peak. We certainly have not seen the like for the best part of nearly 20 years. 1999 was the last time I can remember such an event. 

[Sunny76]

6 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Even these most recent storms, which weren’t bad at all. 27th July last year saw incredible Multicellular complexes drift up from the S and up the east coast, and of course late May last year where London saw that epic storm come up from France/Belgium, still don’t stack up that close to what I recall seeing all through my 90’s childhood. Some of them lasted a good 10 hours or more throughout the entire night, and were in the category of frightening at their peak. We certainly have not seen the like for the best part of nearly 20 years. 1999 was the last time I can remember such an event. 

Yes I remember the period of late May 1999, early July being very thundery. About 3-4 thundery overnight storms hit London back then. That summer was a rather mixed affair, but I do recall a hot July or every warm one. May was warm and sunny, and quite humid towards the end, but June was very poor. I think the mix of temps produced more unstable thundery spells. Perhaps 2019 is heading that way.

[MP-R]

45 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Yes I remember the period of late May 1999, early July being very thundery. About 3-4 thundery overnight storms hit London back then. That summer was a rather mixed affair, but I do recall a hot July or every warm one. May was warm and sunny, and quite humid towards the end, but June was very poor. I think the mix of temps produced more unstable thundery spells. Perhaps 2019 is heading that way.

Funny you should both bring that up. I vividly remember May 1999. It was a good summer for storms overall but May copped it again. First the humdingers of the 27th that came overnight into the 28th, then batch 2 on the 29th - daytime darkness in Bristol preceded by electric green sky as it rolled in. At the age of 7 it was scary stuff, and probably when I started becoming interested in thunderstorms. 

[Sunny76]

6 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Funny you should both bring that up. I vividly remember May 1999. It was a good summer for storms overall but May copped it again. First the humdingers of the 27th that came overnight into the 28th, then batch 2 on the 29th - daytime darkness in Bristol preceded by electric green sky as it rolled in. At the age of 7 it was scary stuff, and probably when I started becoming interested in thunderstorms. 

Ah to be a 7 year old, must have made it more scary. 

I remember when I was 5 in August 1981, and we had a severe storm, which made the sky turn completely dark. We had to turn the lights on at 11am because it was like night time. Since then, I think 1999 was the only year that came close to producing anything like that again. 

1980-84, 87, 89, 1992, 1994 and 1999 bring back memories of severe thunderstorms.

I still think late May 2018 was pretty impressive as well. 

[MP-R]

15 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Ah to be a 7 year old, must have made it more scary. 

I remember when I was 5 in August 1981, and we had a severe storm, which made the sky turn completely dark. We had to turn the lights on at 11am because it was like night time. Since then, I think 1999 was the only year that came close to producing anything like that again. 

1980-84, 87, 89, 1992, 1994 and 1999 bring back memories of severe thunderstorms.

I still think late May 2018 was pretty impressive as well. 

Very much so! Sadly I missed the 2018 storms being abroad but the videos I've seen look amazing.

[Azazel]

Not for a very long while looking at the models

winter has arrived in time for summer 

[Sunny76]

8 hours ago, Azazel said:

Not for a very long while looking at the models

winter has arrived in time for summer 

Sometimes poor summers produce more storm activity, especially if it’s changeable. 

 

[Sunny76]

Looks like it will be June at this rate. One year ago this weekend we had those severe nighttime storms over London and the south.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

24 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Looks like it will be June at this rate. One year ago this weekend we had those severe nighttime storms over London and the south.

Will never forget it. I went chasing into the Home Counties a night ago this time last year. The continuous flickering getting more intense as you bear in on the storm is one of the best feelings ever as a chaser! 

Oklahoma and Texas during May is a must! 

[Sunny76]

18 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Will never forget it. I went chasing into the Home Counties a night ago this time last year. The continuous flickering getting more intense as you bear in on the storm is one of the best feelings ever as a chaser! 

Oklahoma and Texas during May is a must! 

I think it was one of the worst storms for the long region, along with the mid July overnight storms of 2017. On both occasions we had storms between 10pm and midnight, and more storms came along later in the night. 

[Met.]

Night time thunderstorms seem to be rather more common in the South East of England but I don't count on seeing one in South Yorkshire, in fact last time was probably 2015. 

When i lived in Berkshire we had a beast of a storm on 3rd July 1999 with constant flickering lightning, continuous thunder and squalls of wind and rain for two hours. Dramatic as anything except most of the lightning was in the clouds and not CG so it wasn't very loud.

But that year I went to France in August and we had a terrifying thunderstorm at night with regular CG lightning at close range which blew everything up. Intense loud thunder, so bad it shook the building, had to put fingers in ears, and even a lamp blew up, the light bulb went flying across the room. Power blown up for miles around. Never seen that in the UK or anything close.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

28 minutes ago, Thundershine said:

Night time thunderstorms seem to be rather more common in the South East of England but I don't count on seeing one in South Yorkshire, in fact last time was probably 2015. 

When i lived in Berkshire we had a beast of a storm on 3rd July 1999 with constant flickering lightning, continuous thunder and squalls of wind and rain for two hours. Dramatic as anything except most of the lightning was in the clouds and not CG so it wasn't very loud.

But that year I went to France in August and we had a terrifying thunderstorm at night with regular CG lightning at close range which blew everything up. Intense loud thunder, so bad it shook the building, had to put fingers in ears, and even a lamp blew up, the light bulb went flying across the room. Power blown up for miles around. Never seen that in the UK or anything close.

France does indeed do very well mostly every year for some awesome storms. 9th and 10th June 2014 delivered some of the most photogenic supercells I’ve probably seen in Europe ever. If they get a good feed off the Pyrenees and Spanish plateau, their storms can literally train for hours on end. Similar with Texas, except they always get a sharp dryline off the rockies and SW states to help with explosive convection and tornadogenesis. No pesky Atlantic for them to deal with! 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

20 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

France does indeed do very well mostly every year for some awesome storms. 9th and 10th June 2014 delivered some of the most photogenic supercells I’ve probably seen in Europe ever. If they get a good feed off the Pyrenees and Spanish plateau, their storms can literally train for hours on end. Similar with Texas, except they always get a sharp dryline off the rockies and SW states to help with explosive convection and tornadogenesis. No pesky Atlantic for them to deal with! 

Pentecost storms - check out this strange video from a storm that week:

No idea why they thought to add fake thunder to the video, nor why they chose to add the whimsical village fair music - but that’s Europe for you  

[The PIT]

Storms here are now a thing mainly of the past. We get the odd rumble in a shower ever so often. Can't remember the last storm we had it's that long ago.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Storms here are now a thing mainly of the past. We get the odd rumble in a shower ever so often. Can't remember the last storm we had it's that long ago.

Last year we had some decent storms, certainly better than years gone by. The days of decent night-time storms are long gone though, it seems   I still remember excellent lightning displays from plume-fired storms tracking northwards overnight. Juicy beasts they were!

We've had 2 thunder days so far this year so far, consecutively IIRC. Typical pulse-type spring affairs, though.