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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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Extracts posted last week on closed thread:   The other part of the equation is the seasonal transition within the stratosphere from its winter default vortex position to its summer state. T

Greetings to you all! ? A glistening new thread for the month of May and early Summer! As we head deeper into Spring and into Summer (though I guess for some, May could be classed as a Summer

There are no apologies for self quoting a significant extract of the post the other day because its central focus becomes more primary to how NWP evolves in the remainder of this month and into the st

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6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The GFS has been a lot more more consistent with what it’s showing post 7 days whereas the ECM has been flip flopping around.

That's true, as far as the op goes; but, look what happens to the T850s, post the June 9th bottleneck?:shok:image.thumb.png.e2eeaa0646224705963a5073fafc9ac1.png 

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12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That's true, as far as the op goes; but, look what happens to the T850s, post the June 9th bottleneck?:shok:image.thumb.png.e2eeaa0646224705963a5073fafc9ac1.png 

Quite - on the 13th you've got anything from cool and slightly below average to temperatures in the 80's F. All depends on which side of the various pressure systems we end up on....don't think a settled anticyclonic spell will appear though. Best bet would be bog standard summer weather - the odd nice day, the odd rubbish day, temperatures not too far from average either way. 

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