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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

BlueHedgehog074
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Mr Frost Maestro

Mr Frost

Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
Posted (edited)

GFS 12z is a bit meh...a few days heat in South East England and spreading to other parts for a couple of days.

It looks as though June could be a month of waxing and waning...few days of hot weather for the usual parts and then a week of some average temps/bit of rain...rinse and repeat until July? 

95DD2F89-04E6-4D5D-9182-34BA0EDC2AA8.thumb.png.9b5add68318661baa8e81fe4658d26f6.png

01D0DF18-73DF-4E89-8ED5-1122B4B9A59F.thumb.png.32e49bc8ffb3e820b1485cde67369960.png

Are we going to see a backloaded Summer? We shall see - all look different in a few hours anyway! 

Edited by Mr Frost
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StormChaseUK Community Regular

StormChaseUK

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
Posted

1976 actually did something similar in late May/early June.  It was all a bit Meh then locked into a pattern of heat.

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StormChaseUK Community Regular

StormChaseUK

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Model-watching this summer:

D768C6A8-AFBE-43EE-92D2-72D97C7B0988.thumb.jpeg.4d0ea3a71959f0e1dc6c2ef90bc9a138.jpeg

Perfect representation.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

At least the FV3 ends with very little in the way of sub-0C air...anywhere!:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.975db7a7ba9400d9ef53f0edd4688d44.pngimage.thumb.png.885328c84b6f5001c89b57a059a2a322.png 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
7 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Interesting Gem 0z..what a nice finish!

gem-0-240.png

And now the 12z..what a s#@t finish

gem-0-240.png

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StormChaseUK Community Regular

StormChaseUK

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
Posted
8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

And now the 12z..what a s#@t finish

gem-0-240.png

That's actually good because Europe has cool northern flow and there is high coming in to our west. 

We need Europe to have cool sh*tty weather = helps us longer term.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Captain: we have an outlier::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.9a23958b62184b65c2c5d9c73fcead97.pngimage.thumb.png.49666a57d530ed5b4249052a0c071bc6.png 

image.thumb.png.6a220eda350156ab9c33aad9bc599ca7.pngimage.thumb.png.3ba4ce3f884cba7a4f8330693f903779.png

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Fear not, I have it on good authority that the model output is about to swing dramatically....It will be baking hot, very oppressive, bone dry with the most amazing elevated heat storms.....Sadly I'm talking about the forecast on Venus for the next 4 billion years :crazy:

back here in Blighty, the 12z suites for the forseeable future can be summed up in one word... "Changeable"

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The GEFS 12z longer term shows very mixed signals, no real sign it will settle down and warm up beyond the next 7-10  cooler unsettled days and nights. Of course that doesn't preclude a significant improvement but makes it unlikely as things stand. The mean actually improves a bit in the extended range but that isn't really saying much considering how it's looking during the week ahead.

Edited by Frosty.
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The GEFS 12z longer term shows very mixed signals, no real sign it will settle down and warm up beyond the next 7-10  cooler unsettled days and nights. Of course that doesn't preclude a significant improvement but makes it unlikely as things stand. The mean actually improves a bit in the extended range but that isn't really saying much considering how it's looking during the week ahead.

Have to disagree there Karl, I think most definitely signs of improvement by day 10 and beyond and also warmer conditions, the operationals keep hinting at it, exeter keep hinting at it also. The ensembles are just as much all over the place has the ops currently. I'm not going to discount a much improved situation on the back of the GFS 12z runs.

Edited by Mattwolves
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Mr Frost Maestro

Mr Frost

Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
Posted (edited)

ECM 12z out to 192 hours.

I think we all know by now that there is nothing much happening regarding UK and Ireland wide sun and warmth before the 10th June.

anim_wdk7.gif

Hopefully it’s what comes after that starts to show improvements!

Edited by Mr Frost
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Have to disagree there Karl, I think most definitely signs of improvement by day 10 and beyond and also warmer conditions, the operationals keep hinting at it, exeter keep hinting at it also. The ensembles are just as much all over the place has the ops currently. I'm not going to discount a much improved situation on the back of the GFS 12z runs.

It's been the same since last November. Signs of improvement at day 10; whether that be cold weather in winter or hot weather in summer.

Can we just do away with the NWP past day 5?

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Have to disagree there Karl, I think most definitely signs of improvement by day 10 and beyond, I'm not going to discount a much improved situation on the back of the GFS 12z runs.

I hope you're right, as I said to me it's showing mixed signals, there is some great stuff in there but some absolute filth too..and everything in-between.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

The ensembles show the chances of pressure rising beyond mid month with the decreasing amount of spikes. I'm not so sure the mean has got the detail on temperatures so correct though. 

graphe3_1000_264_81___.png

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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's been the same since last November. Signs of improvement at day 10; whether that be cold weather in winter or hot weather in summer.

Can we just do away with the NWP past day 5?

27c/28c and sunny the last two days here and some other parts so not always showing at day 10. Granted, any prolonged warmth isn’t showing within the next 10 days. 

Edited by danm
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The ensembles show the chances of pressure rising beyond mid month with the decreasing amount of spikes. I'm not so sure the mean has got the detail on temperatures so correct though. 

graphe3_1000_264_81___.png

What I will say is the mean improves slightly longer term but only for southern uk, that's probably being charitable as the uk looks like it's in no man's land really.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's been the same since last November. Signs of improvement at day 10; whether that be cold weather in winter or hot weather in summer.

Can we just do away with the NWP past day 5?

Do you mean do away with it in general crewe? I suppose it's beneficial for picking up on trends but the ridiculous amount of swings beyond a week is for all to see. The GFS for me is far to inconsistent beyond a week. I mean even the FV3 never agrees with it. I get your point regarding cold as well, but let's face it..... Its usually much more simplistic to get heat plumes than cold shots in. Even in a bog average summer, we will have very warm spells, but in a bog average winter we can struggle to get several days of severe frosts. 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

And here comes the improvement from ECM.... GFS go back to bed...

There you go, you guys up North.... ECM sending some warmth your way... 

ECM1-216 (2).gif

ECM1-240 (2).gif

ECM0-240.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

It was a difficult decision but on balance the Ecm 12z ends better than the Gem..

ECM1-240.gif

gem-0-240.png

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Model-watching this summer:

D768C6A8-AFBE-43EE-92D2-72D97C7B0988.thumb.jpeg.4d0ea3a71959f0e1dc6c2ef90bc9a138.jpeg

It’s been the same theme since late November.......

Edited by Don
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Don said:

It’s been the same theme since late   November.......

It's been the same theme since I joined in 2005..and before.

Anyway, a good finish to the Ecm 12z if it's fine and warmer weather you want.

240_mslp500 (1).png

Edited by Frosty.
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It was a difficult decision but on balance the Ecm 12z ends better than the Gem..

ECM1-240.gif

gem-0-240.png

You made the correct choice, Karl:   image.png.c0d2e6c79ede4cb048eaf3eb0bc1c22e.png

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

ECM is much more like what youd want to see by day 10 - collapsing polar and Greenland heights, Azores high nosing in.

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