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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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19 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

A very cold and snowy night in parts of the Scottish Highlands...get the Christmas tree’s back up! ??

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Spring really is the most wonderful time of the year! 

I am looking forward to a glorious Summer filled with heat and thunderstorms - hopefully the long range models and thoughts of respected members on here come true! 

Have a good weekend everyone! 

 

Thanks Mr frost, awesome picture. I stated earlier how the higher parts of scotland would resemble an Inuit village... Enjoy it while you can ?

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Extracts posted last week on closed thread:   The other part of the equation is the seasonal transition within the stratosphere from its winter default vortex position to its summer state. T

Greetings to you all! ? A glistening new thread for the month of May and early Summer! As we head deeper into Spring and into Summer (though I guess for some, May could be classed as a Summer

There are no apologies for self quoting a significant extract of the post the other day because its central focus becomes more primary to how NWP evolves in the remainder of this month and into the st

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Superb synoptics on offer if you like deep rooted arctic air, perfect northern alignment from other side of the Pole par excellence. Alas a cold lovers dream, but perhaps not in May..

Will take a fair while to shake us out of the colder spell, a slow climb in temperatures next week but with added rain and strong winds, it will take probably until next weekend before we see a return to average temps, a chance we could swing to something substantially warmer with a plume effect - but quite probably shortlived.

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2 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Just wait and see the cold spell has not started yet:cold:

It already has started though! The cold front moved south yesterday and we have been stuck in colder air here in the NE since then. I also don't get why you are criticising people who are looking at the model output thread given this cold spell was picked up on a few days ago. Also kinda defeats the purpose of the model output thread not to... telling weather forecasters to ignore the models because its a good idea to just randomly guess is like telling people brexit is a good idea because we don't need Europe.

A more realistic forecast would be a cold bank holiday weekend followed by a rise in temperatures towards the middle of the week ahead of the low coming from the west.

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Then s thundery showers and perhaps strong winds as the low passes through leaving colder air in its wake

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Finally signs it may settle down with perhaps some warmer air from the south .. but that is a long way off.

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Edited by Quicksilver1989
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7 hours ago, Don said:

If only that were the case, winter would have been great! ?

I got 2 good snow events here to each to their own....

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It may not seem like it over the next week or so, but my god summer is a coming, thanks Mr 18z...it was well worth the wait, now I can watch my z nation in peace, so it's goodnight from him, and its goodnight from me.... 

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For the next couple of days the strong blocking high to the east forestalls any great eastward movement so the upper trough sits over the UK  But upstream there are developments as a quite intense upper trough develops in the western Atlantic which promotes amplification of the subtropical high in the vicinity of the UK over the weekend, This portends drier and warmer weather

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The portends are good from the GEFS 00z mean, indeed other output too for a switch to high pressure beyond next week!?

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Edited by Frosty.
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The Man From Day 10, he say 'YES'! image.thumb.png.33f46e47823416585a40d56038f11358.png:oldgood: 

 

    image.thumb.png.1578718ec1aaa21d9b64971d80bbd1d6.pngimage.thumb.png.9b3965bc89ef448562c323e0f7ab47fe.png   

The FV3 needs to try harder:image.thumb.png.959a84d306bc2035bcc7636066fc8bdb.pngimage.thumb.png.13d47233ec679cc413ba2f3edf1c6575.png 

The Temp Ensemble says:    image.thumb.png.b9cd229df871b87ed28906caf19a9568.png:oldgood:

And the precip says, 'don't put out your washing from 9/5 to 11/5':image.thumb.png.1d21da899772264562e48458133ac873.png                

Edited by Ed Stone
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The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows a marked improvement towards the end with high pressure building northwards through the uk, much as the operational did earlier..the portends are good!???

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Edited by Frosty.
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The Gfs 6z operational looks reasonably fine but chilly during the next few days before turning much more unsettled from next midweek but then starts to dry up generally from the end of next week as the uk shows a strong ridge replacing the cool trough (s) although the best of the sunshine would be further west along with the most pleasant surface conditions. I think at this range the most important thing is a change from unsettled to settled and the finer details regarding the position / orientation of the ridge / high pressure will chop and change for a while yet but hopefully it will set up favourably to bring warmer and sunnier conditions to all!!? 

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Edited by Frosty.
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Looking into the mid range onwards the GEFS 6z mean indicates a switch from unsettled to settled from around the end of next week and even further ahead there is potential for high pressure and warmth!?

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6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Don't look at the mean! image.thumb.png.b0adcea08073c8f4aab6ab2e35dc2087.png:shok:

Precipitation:                 image.thumb.png.82e3a5f83d299cfa1c6c62bf5b11916a.png

Try a rain dance Ed ???

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There were indications from yesterday's models that we may exchange the northerly then trough dominated pattern to something warmer and ridge related or indeed southerly related towards next weekend and into middle of the month. Today less than convinced this will happen, yes indications again a ridge will travel up from the south, but quickly through the UK and heading north, hence an easterly flow off a not particularly warm continent and N Sea could occur and with cut off low to the SE, chance heights may migrate NW again and we come under the auspices of further northerly episode. We may be about to see a very northerly/easterly May.  

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22 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

There were indications from yesterday's models that we may exchange the northerly then trough dominated pattern to something warmer and ridge related or indeed southerly related towards next weekend and into middle of the month. Today less than convinced this will happen, yes indications again a ridge will travel up from the south, but quickly through the UK and heading north, hence an easterly flow off a not particularly warm continent and N Sea could occur and with cut off low to the SE, chance heights may migrate NW again and we come under the auspices of further northerly episode. We may be about to see a very northerly/easterly May.  

Looking at it today, the ridge scenario looks transient as unlike last year, it seems to ultimately serve as reinforcement of N blocking rather than being held as a mid latitude feature. 

Maybe Tamara will be on the money with the thought of a general plume-trough scenario as we enter summer? 

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