Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

[Mike Poole]

GFS has the low too T192 although not as significant:

But 24 hrs later all is looking peachy, T216:

From what I've seen so far we are in upgrade territory this afternoon.

Edited June 1, 2019 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

That's more like it.... Come to poppa GFS.. definitely signs of improvement... Over to you ECM. 

[Methuselah]

GFS 12Z doesn't end too bad: 

Does it ever end badly?

[Methuselah]

The FV3 also ends well! 

Warmth has only been put-back by a couple more days!

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z  in the mid / longer term it's very much a mixed bag, there is some support for a summery spell but equally there is some support for cooler more unsettled conditions although the mean itself doesn't look bad with azores ridging into the uk, at least the southern half so perhaps we could be looking at a typical north / south split further ahead but of course next week it's unsettled and cooler for all with the southeast probably doing a bit better than the rest of the uk.

Edited June 1, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

Aaaaaaaaand -- the 12Z ensembles are nae bad!

 

Beware the ninth of June: 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Icon and ECM at 168...i think icon had been on the Stella this afternoon. 

Out to 216hrs and we are still not quite there, looking like day 11 or 12 before the improvement really sets in... 

Its getting there slowly but surely anyway that's my shift done... Enjoy the final folks 

Edited June 1, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240 and it looks like whichever way you roll it, the good times may come eventually:

But need a few more runs to confirm that the ridge will progress over the UK, it should do, but uncertainty remains at 10 days out...we will see.

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean at T192;

For me this strongly suggests that the dartboard low scenario is very low likelihood, and here T240:

As a mean chart I think it sums up a shift to more positive summery output on the models today.   I think,for reasons given earlier,  that this will firm up quickly over the next two days.  

Just to add in, JMA 12z at T192:

I am sure those who want to wait up until 11pm will await the next frames, but I think high pressure moving over the UK is a decent bet!

Edited June 1, 2019 by Mike Poole

[summer blizzard]

Tonights Euro can only be described as poor. Cyclonic throughout with a couple of shortwaves.

[northwestsnow]

22 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Tonights Euro can only be described as poor. Cyclonic throughout with a couple of shortwaves.

But we already knew that?

Its going to be beyond day 10 before much hope of improvement.

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

But we already knew that?

Its going to be beyond day 10 before much hope of improvement.

And it is still showing that and my earlier comments on this chart cover it as it is very similar to this morning

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The ECM operational this evening was very much on the cool side of the ensembles. So perhaps even more signs we could be heading in the right direction. 

[B87]

This is what WO has forecast for London, based on the GFS. Looks pretty typical for June, not sure where all the doom and gloom is coming from now (as opposed to a few days ago when it looked dreadful).

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

11 minutes ago, B87 said:

This is what WO has forecast for London, based on the GFS. Looks pretty typical for June, not sure where all the doom and gloom is coming from now (as opposed to a few days ago when it looked dreadful).

 

Those weather symbols can be quite misleading though, a bit like looking at a weather app. Looking at those graphs seems to indicate it hardly rains at all in the SE. And my other concern would be its only being based on 1 model and GFS at that. Weather online I take it, Dr Simon keeling, he used to do the weather on midlands today years back, pretty good forecaster tbh. But yes I could agree with the fact there could be a general improvement out beyond day 10.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Feast your eyes on this beyond 10 day's and yes out of the reliable.. But beyond day 10 we see high pressure gaining control and a real push of continental heat approaching the South... Temps would be pushing 30c, even a tad above. 

The 20c uppers being breached here. 

Edited June 1, 2019 by Mattwolves

[StormChaseUK]

18z doing its T-800 act again.

There were hopeful signs in earlier run it really looked like summer was about to take hold around the 10th June onwards. Maybe it will shift back but also maybe we will be here on 1st September still waiting for summer. We reached 26C today top temp but that doesn't mean much at the moment if green machine sits over us 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

18z doing its T-800 act again.

There were hopeful signs in earlier run it really looked like summer was about to take hold around the 10th June onwards. Maybe it will shift back but also maybe we will be here on 1st September still waiting for summer. We reached 26C today top temp but that doesn't mean much at the moment if green machine sits over us 

Your obviously not viewing the FV3 model.. 

And the old GFS is most definitely improving out to day 10.

Edited June 1, 2019 by Mattwolves

[StormChaseUK]

Yeah, taking it with pinch of salt it does look really good. But it also looked really good for now 10 days ago.

[TJS1998Tom]

Just for fun seeing as it's two weeks away but wouldn't mind this at all  

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Bit of an warm outlier,  you could never find better looking charts. Scandi and the Azores coming face to face and merging together. Shame this will gone tomorrows run.

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

12 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Yeah, taking it with pinch of salt it does look really good. But it also looked really good for now 10 days ago.

I wouldn't stress so much, at the end of the day the uk is in a decent location to get heat in... This is nothing like winter when a cold snap literally has to be  counted down to 48hrs to get it in. Warm and very warm spells are two a penny in the UK these days. I mean look at febuary, when we reached over 20c..its something we will probably need to get used to. As much as I love searching for proper winter, we are getting to the stage where we are relying on major SSWs just to get a cold snap. I can see temps like we had back in February becoming more the normal in the future. The future is bright, the future is orange. Most definitely looking good for a major mid month warm up. 

[knocker]

Outlook - Today marks the transition to period of cooler and more unsettled weather but hopefully the indications of a rather quick transition to more settled conditions later gain more traction over the next few days

Meanwhile the NH 500mb profile and the North Atlantic analysis for midnight and the 0400 UTC UK chart

A quick glance at the chart  shows two things. How mild it is and the moderate rain in the north. The latter is associated with the the fronts, which in turn are associated with the low west of Ireland that is tracking slowly north east, Whilst everywhere to to the south is dry at the moment the rain from the cold front will very shortly effect western regions and track east through the day reaching the east by late afternoon.. Consequently a marked temp contrast with again it becoming quite hot in the east before the arrival of the cloud.

During the evening the low continues to track NE and by midnight is 988mb over the Western Isles, so the rain will continue over N. Ireland and Scotland and becoming quite windy with coastal gales in western areas. Elsewhere a clear night with just the odd shower.

By Monday the low is now south east of Iceland but the north is still within it's circulation in which a stray occlusion is embedded so staying windy with frequent showers in N. Ireland and Scotland with just the odd shower in western regions further south.

Over Monday night and through Tuesday amplification in the Atlantic has a knock on effect on the UK trough forcing it south. So although the surface low is now NE of Iceland perturbations in the south quadrant of the now elongated trough, in the form of troughs and fronts, are littered over the UK. Thus sunny intervals with frequent heavy showers, with perhaps thunder in the mix.

w

With the upper trough still in residence a shallow, unstable, area of low pressure,lies over the UK through Wednesday and Thursday resulting in sunny intervals with frequent showers. which could be thundery. and longer periods of rain where they coalesce. Of course where these occur is in the lap of the gods.

Edited June 2, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

Over the next five days although the UK stays under the auspices of the upper trough the centre is moving west as it becomes more negatively tilted. This is good news as it's broadly in line with the later indications from the EPS.

Anyway on th surface the very slack area of low pressure continues to influence the UK weather so sunny intervals and showers with temps around average

Edited June 2, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm has a low developing in the base of the upper trough next saturday as this becomes stretched courtesy of the subtropical high amplifying in mid Atlantic. This brings some wet and windy weather to the country.

The amplification continues over the next couple of days leading to a relaxation of the showery activity as the trough is forced south and the ridge nudges in. The detail in this period still to be resolved

 

Edited June 2, 2019 by knocker