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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Forget next week it might not happen..enjoy this week's warm up..unless you're in gloomy manchester!

UW48-7.gif

UW72-7.gif

UW96-7.gif

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Even a chance that June 13th might get close to 30C?:shok:

image.thumb.png.e628614206d3365cde8562543e0932b4.pngimage.thumb.png.8b75164da6c46f68930488db9d29ef9c.png 

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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted
7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Forget next week it might not happen..enjoy this week's warm up..unless you're in gloomy manchester!

UW48-7.gif

UW72-7.gif

UW96-7.gif

next week will definitely happen unless there is an end of the world event I am not aware of

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Even a chance that June 13th might get close to 30C?:shok:

image.thumb.png.e628614206d3365cde8562543e0932b4.pngimage.thumb.png.8b75164da6c46f68930488db9d29ef9c.png 

Surely that's not the FV3? ..it's an imposter..like it though!!:shok:

Edited by Frosty.
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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted

Some strong winds over Ireland/Irish sea and into Wales Monday and again for the S/W coast Tuesday, Plenty of rain especially for the North as shown by the Netwx-Model. 

920540847_viewimage-2019-05-29T183220_944.thumb.png.19fbfbe498ebbe616967ce5623694352.png1924308416_viewimage-2019-05-29T183242_344.thumb.png.35d68d2370227575274aa3f83d9da2af.png122121203_viewimage-2019-05-29T183956_738.thumb.png.4fa7292cdc9cef0a00b53b92367869ee.png

 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

Some strong winds over Ireland/Irish sea and into Wales Monday and again for the S/W coast Tuesday, Plenty of rain especially for the North as shown by the Netwx-Model. 

920540847_viewimage-2019-05-29T183220_944.thumb.png.19fbfbe498ebbe616967ce5623694352.png1924308416_viewimage-2019-05-29T183242_344.thumb.png.35d68d2370227575274aa3f83d9da2af.png122121203_viewimage-2019-05-29T183956_738.thumb.png.4fa7292cdc9cef0a00b53b92367869ee.png

 

Yes it may actually feel quite autumnal next week further n / w with all the heavy rain, strong winds and unseasonably cool temperatures.

Edited by Blessed Weather
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

It's not all doom and gloom as some would have you believe yes its unsettled next week, before then some warmth for the weekend, from the midlands south I would say mid to high 20s possible in decent sunny spells. The FV paints a potentially fantastic spell beyond 10 day's... Yes its a long way off, but being as this model has been hinting at this on the ensembles for a few days, it could be onto something.... In the words of Mike Poole.... We shall see... 

gfs-0-240 (1).png

gfs-0-264 (1).png

gfs-0-300.png

gfs-0-324.png

gfs-1-288 (1).png

gfs-1-300 (1).png

gfs-1-324.png

gfs-1-348.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Surely that's not the FV3? ..it's an imposter..like it though!!:shok:

I can confirm those FV3 charts Ed posted are authentic!!..wetter concurs so das ist gut..ja

GFSPARAEU12_360_2.png

GFSPARAEU12_360_17.png

Edited by Frosty.
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

The 12z ensembles again highlight the very warm run from the FV3... My only current concern is the overall disappointment of the mean!! Hopefully it can only get better further down the line. 

graphe3_1000_273_99___.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The 12z ensembles again highlight the very warm run from the FV3... My only current concern is the overall disappointment of the mean!! Hopefully it can only get better further down the line. 

graphe3_1000_273_99___.png

The longer term 12z mean looks interesting, from around T+240 hours we could tap into a continental air mass as was the case with the 6z..Following next week's action it looks a slack warm pattern with potential for heat and storms as well as fine conditions.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

The longer term 12z mean looks interesting, from around T+240 hours we could tap into a continental air mass as was the case with the 6z..Following next week's action it looks a slack warm pattern with potential for heat and storms as well as fine conditions.

Yes this is possible Karl, it's interesting to see the FV3 yet again going very warm, for now at least, it seems to have dropped its cold bias! It's also quite surprising to see not many on here are making reference to this model even though it will soon to be replacing the old model..

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

ECM bringing a warm weekend to a good chunk of England and Wales. That's me sorted.. Time to hit the coast in me new caravan..

ECM0-72.gif

ECM0-96.gif

PoisedAccurateAmericanbadger-max-1mb.gif

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

ECM showing gale force winds into early next week. Could be an absolute horror show, one to keep an eye on.

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

The ecm still looking to develop a low in the baroclinic zone along the north  eastern flank of the ridge at t120 and track it into the southern Irish Sea 986mb 48 hours later

t120.thumb.png.faffc26d03739a5d15ceb817b087cb74.pngt144.thumb.png.87e66137de2dcd1f602f3fcfe1137047.pngt168.thumb.png.ab4c8acd4596d0d9fb2ff337d3412c69.png

Edited by knocker
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Looks like some welcome rain next week..cross model support!☔☔☔☔☔☔

144_mslp500.png

168_mslp500.png

192_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM showing gale force winds into early next week. Could be an absolute horror show, one to keep an eye on.

Aye, Idris next isn't it, likely to be named

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

These ensembles really do look very good; and, given the current state of the background signals, it's hard to imagine what could go wrong!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.900a6b4b08ca86e163444d8f260b663e.png It's a lot easier to comprehend than NW's policy on images!:help:

Edited by Ed Stone
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looks like some welcome rain next week..cross model support!☔☔☔☔☔☔

144_mslp500.png

168_mslp500.png

192_mslp500.png

But at least it will be mild, mainly S'ly breezes on those, and hope more sunshine/showers? could feel decent while no shower in progress

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

But at least it will be mild, mainly S'ly breezes on those, and hope more sunshine/showers? could feel decent while no shower in progress

Indeed the uppers don't look bad at all and T+240 looks a much better chart, shows heat returning to the SE.  

240_thickuk.png

240_mslp850.png

240_mslp500 (1).png

Edited by Frosty.
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Mr Frost Maestro

Mr Frost

Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
Posted (edited)

Hot in the South this weekend and crap up North - standard for Summer! 

Rain all day here...same tomorrow...same again Friday...abysmal! (We really are getting the skid marks on the underpants of the default UK Summer weather for the next few days and next week up North)

Hopefully by mid June things start to look better for us up here! I am just glad the most accurate and reliable supermodel of them all is showing this in a few weeks time...

0F40F1E8-A625-4164-BB89-DBC1CC9B1058.thumb.png.e7f55e9385bed249bbb9df90cb1303b6.png

The good old CFS...about as useful as a cat-flap on a submarine, hand-break on a canoe, concrete trampoline...you get the point! 

Hope everyone in the South enjoys the warmth/heat this weekend - hopefully in a few weeks myself and many others will be joining in on it! 

Cheers! 

Edited by Mr Frost
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

That's more like it ECM... boooooommmmmmmm shaka lak.... 

ECM0-240.gif

ECM1-240.gif

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

That's more like it ECM... boooooommmmmmmm shaka lak.... 

ECM0-240.gif

ECM1-240.gif

few miles further West would be very interesting, possible maybe something to watch?

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

That's more like it ECM... boooooommmmmmmm shaka lak.... 

ECM0-240.gif

ECM1-240.gif

Agreed, however  it was woefully wrong at 144-168 only a few days ago so i wont be getting seduced by nice charts at day 10..

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