Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

Recommended Posts

Those stating this summer is likely to be on par with 2007 and 2012 are clearly doing so based on a guess (or troll). Yes, the first week of June looks unsettled but anything beyond that is up for grabs. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So this is how it ends:image.thumb.png.ac85ef767fb246daca1da71dda5edfa6.pngimage.thumb.png.350026b2d93b00ae58a810b138b5177e.png Nae bad?:oldgood:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Lots to enjoy for the rest of this week according to the ukmo 0h, especially for the s / se with increasingly warmer weather, could reach 27c in the most favoured spots on saturday!👍🌞

UW48-21.gif

UW48-7.gif

UW72-21.gif

UW72-7.gif

UW96-21.gif

UW96-7.gif

UW120-7.gif

Doubt any summer warmth lovers who live in North of Birmingham really care about the upcoming one day wonder for the SE, especially the Scots they will be delighted at reading your posts.

Next week and beyond is really looking poor, funnily some of poorest Junes on record have happened in the past 20 years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I don't understand why all the focus is on next weeks unsettled and cool when it's only wednesday and it's just starting to warm up!!..just enjoy it while it lasts (unless you're in cool gloomy manchester!)😜..summery weather will be back again and again and again etc..unless you're in gloomy manchester!!👍

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here are some rank charts from previous early Junes that have all led on to better weather shortly after. Conversely, there are plenty of instances of fine weather for most of June only to go rapidly downhill later in the month, setting the tone for the rest of the summer. No bad thing seeing unsettled charts for next week - to be honest it looks rather similar to this week. 

archives-2017-6-6-12-0.png archives-2015-6-2-12-0.png gfs-2014060400-0-6.png archives-2010-6-8-12-0.png

archives-2005-6-4-0-0.png archives-2003-6-10-12-0.png

In Spain there is a saying 'hasta la cuarenta de mayo, no se quite el sayo' - until the 40th May, don't take off your coat. Rather fitting for this year perhaps.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, danm said:

Those stating this summer is likely to be on par with 2007 and 2012 are clearly doing so based on a guess (or troll). Yes, the first week of June looks unsettled but anything beyond that is up for grabs. 

Looks more akin to the start of the summer of 2011 - a lot of UK troughing in the first half of June. I was having soem external work done at home at that time, and I am having all my guttering, soffits and facias done next week!

What happens beyond then, who knows.  The early part of June '07 was actually quite pleasant.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, MP-R said:

 

In Spain there is a saying 'hasta la cuarenta de mayo, no se quite el sayo' - until the 40th May, don't take off your coat. Rather fitting for this year perhaps.

My god  MP R they have a long May in Spain... Wish I lived there 😉

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, the FV3 ends with the UK in something of a no-man's-land; but, nothing out of the ordinary::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.f6a455ff5f1f781a757243ee23894995.pngimage.thumb.png.4fc4a194b45030a4855852ef00a77ec2.png 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

My god  MP R they have a long May in Spain... Wish I lived there 😉

Haha. Everything lasts longer than it should in Spain... 😂 Then again, given how November lasts four months here, we shouldn't gloat lol.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean clearly next week is trough dominated, especially further n / w whereas the southeast may have some better spells but for most it looks cool and showery but beyond next week and because I'm not a doom merchant!!..I'm seeing signs it could become much warmer again with a trough anchored out west and heights to the east with the uk, especially further s / e enjoying a continental airflow at least for a time and even further ahead it looks a slack pattern and generally on the warm side..anyone agree with that? 👍

The signs are there, the key will be on the regression of the trough westwards and the splitting of the blocking stretching from Greenland down through the central Atlantic, models seem slightly more keen on this in the 7-10days range.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, 38.5*C said:

Doubt any summer warmth lovers who live in North of Birmingham really care about the upcoming one day wonder for the SE, especially the Scots they will be delighted at reading your posts.

Next week and beyond is really looking poor, funnily some of poorest Junes on record have happened in the past 20 years.

Isnt this an imby post. Frosty posts wherever the good weather is regardless of where he is from and it just so happens that the southeast will have a one day wonder. He doesnt cherry pick the scenario's he posts the scenario as it as a whole.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean clearly next week is trough dominated, especially further n / w whereas the southeast may have some better spells but for most it looks cool and showery but beyond next week and because I'm not a doom merchant!!..I'm seeing signs it could become much warmer again with a trough anchored out west and heights to the east with the uk, especially further s / e enjoying a continental airflow at least for a time and even further ahead it looks a slack pattern and generally on the warm side..anyone agree with that? 👍

GFSAVGEU06_300_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_300_2.png

GFSAVGEU06_378_1.png

Yes just my thoughts too. Good post. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The UK under a blanked of cloud and the vert broad view of the two troughs and fronts

geo.thumb.JPG.9e9de87725e0944240adf8731b5edf6d.JPGPPVA89.thumb.gif.c55b63dce7dd935ffe05be014315d5b5.gifgfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9131200.thumb.png.0aa6dba700084e52aa56a5817ceee543.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

I'm seeing signs it could become much warmer again with a trough anchored out west and heights to the east with the uk, especially further s / e enjoying a continental airflow at least for a time.

This highlights what I said earlier regarding the GEFS 6z..we could see a big warm up again possibly by the end of next week (P20) or more likely the following week..and of course we are undergoing a warm up this week!!👍😉

GFSP01EU06_294_2.png

GFSP04EU06_294_2.png

GFSP10EU06_294_2.png

GFSP11EU06_294_2.png

GFSP12EU06_294_2.png

GFSP17EU06_294_2.png

GFSP20EU06_252_2.png

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pressure looks to stay stubbornly low across and around the UK right out until the 8th.A very damp start to meteorological summer. 

_20190529_144733.JPG

_20190529_144824.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This evening and overnight the shallow wave and double warm front structure will continue to track east into the North Sea.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.5837484ab9ae449e357bf482c5ced879.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.07063943ee8ff8d353929b396c967b46.gif

The belt of, sometimes moderate, rain/drizzle will do the same but the cold front trails back across the north of the country to the mid Atlantic low and thus rain will continue in the vicinity of this, long after the initial precipitation has arrive in the North Sea, with some stronger pulses. The area south of the cold front is in the warm sector with warmer and humid air creeping north, thus cloudy and quite humid with a marked temp contrast to northern Scotland

min.thumb.png.284436a26ebc2ebdf03e9117f6a0c239.pngr20.thumb.png.b92741451ecddab6474ee0943cbe47e3.pngr22.thumb.png.8459afe658299083fd1c457c246db708.pngr02.thumb.png.e4e775486cc429ef61d09c66a44b3b45.pngr04.thumb.png.9754abd6a07afcb364e40214d00443d9.pngr07.thumb.png.b3105b730727aaa17dcd0b5c799e824e.png

rhpanel_d02_16.thumb.png.0a692a9f4cf7ed16986b652f62637075.pngrhpanel_d02_20.thumb.png.fc0a8505650a45fb819830b3b2264717.pngrhpanel_d02_24.thumb.png.74ea4222facd8f9e1824bdb465570ab4.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Pressure looks to stay stubbornly low across and around the UK right out until the 8th.A very damp start to meteorological summer. 

_20190529_144733.JPG

_20190529_144824.JPG

Well I guess we need the rain as everyone is so quick to remind us !! That aside they do look unpleasant charts slow moving low pressure is a rain maker !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Well, Monday's breeze should blow away the cobwebs!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.441419ca862651d05cca17da065e8e32.pngimage.thumb.png.8abcc8226b212d549ed897259b631d6f.png

And, anyway, there are always better things to look at, than low-pressure areas!

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Norrance

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ukmo 12h is snot looking so good next week🤪

UW144-7.gif

UW144-21.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

A bit of warmth, a bit of sun, a drop of rain and the chance of some decent thunderstorms...What more could one want from a British summer?:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.9e7802bdf9234fd6fab740c4fbad6312.pngimage.thumb.png.4bb629bbc40480b5b007d306afc975dc.png

Edited by Ed Stone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS 12z is just unsettled through the entire run and shows that whilst the 06z offered an improvement towards the back end of next its by any means a sure thing. Some of the Synoptics around the 264hrs stage are unusual in that the Shetlands are sat under 850s approaching 15c while mainland uk is 10c lower under a cold pool. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

A bit of warmth, a bit of sun, a drop of rain and the chance of some decent thunderstorms...What more could one want from a British summer?:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.9e7802bdf9234fd6fab740c4fbad6312.pngimage.thumb.png.4bb629bbc40480b5b007d306afc975dc.png

As in my previous post these Synoptics are unusual however I think they support poor conditions for the majority of the UK, a lot of cloud and really not all that warm at the surface so I think we could want a lot more to be honest but that’s just IMO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

A bit of warmth, a bit of sun, a drop of rain and the chance of some decent thunderstorms...What more could one want from a British summer?:yahoo:

 

Average temperatures, average rainfall and average sunshine would suit me fine.

Shouldn't be too hard to come by, surely?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

At least there won't be anyone moaning about a lack of rain next week..see I found a positive right there!!!😜

And another positive, the Gem 12z warms up again later so the rain would therefore be warmer..especially if you're on a boat in the north sea.👍

gem-1-240.png

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...