Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

How can I put this..ermm, the Ecm 12z is snot looking very good next week!

This weekend isn't a scorcher either, the uppers have been, shall we say toned down..apart from that it's all looking great!!

I'm hoping this backs down a tad Karl, I'm also noticing TV forecasts for the midlands still predicting 27c the weekend... So let's just see

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

I'm hoping this backs down a tad Karl, I'm also noticing TV forecasts for the midlands still predicting 27c the weekend... So let's just see

Aye, can see 27C off this, does look good on UKMO

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

How can I put this..ermm, the Ecm 12z is snot looking very good next week!

This weekend isn't a scorcher either, the uppers have been, shall we say toned down..apart from that it's all looking great!!

 

It's a downgrade jim, but not as we know it!!!

Tentative signs of improvement @ T+240 hours with an azores / atlantic ridge building in.

Edited May 28, 2019 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

ECM is a horror show at 192 hours! At the moment it has a feel of a fair few summers in the 2000s where the UK sat under the trough for weeks while Eastern Europe went into the furnace. Moscow - for example - is forecast to be 25-30c every day for the next 10-14 days.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is a horror show at 192 hours! At the moment it has a feel of a fair few summers in the 2000s where the UK sat under the trough for weeks while Eastern Europe went into the furnace. Moscow - for example - is forecast to be 25-30c every day for the next 10-14 days.

But its only 1 week, and summer is not even starting til Saturday! The pattern would have to be like this for several weeks to assume this. 

[Wimbledon88]

The latest output would tend to suggest that the SE will do well to hit 27c on Saturday. The Midlands northwards 20c max. All downhill then from Sunday. One day wonder hot spell. 

[Wimbledon88]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is a horror show at 192 hours! At the moment it has a feel of a fair few summers in the 2000s where the UK sat under the trough for weeks while Eastern Europe went into the furnace. Moscow - for example - is forecast to be 25-30c every day for the next 10-14 days.

Yes, the trend is certainly there now in the latest outputs. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Wimbledon88 said:

The latest output would tend to suggest that the SE will do well to hit 27c on Saturday. The Midlands northwards 20c max. All downhill then from Sunday. One day wonder hot spell. 

Have to disagree with that 20c for midlands... I would expect this with largely cloudy conditions, any length of sun, and sure to be 25-26c. One day wonder hot spell, never mind we only have 3 or 4 months to get another one..

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is a horror show at 192 hours! At the moment it has a feel of a fair few summers in the 2000s where the UK sat under the trough for weeks while Eastern Europe went into the furnace. Moscow - for example - is forecast to be 25-30c every day for the next 10-14 days.

Yep if that heat dome gets going over the east we could be a spot of bother....

I watched the live Meto Broad/podcast earlier and they said that acceleration of the front and associated trough appeared more likely than it slowing and it could clear all the warm air from the UK by early Sunday. Again the timing from ECM would give almost nothing from a connective element in the way of a breakdown. ECM for next week is just the dogs dinner.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Have to disagree with that 20c for midlands... I would expect this with largely cloudy conditions, any length of sun, and sure to be 25-26c. One day wonder hot spell, never mind we only have 3 or 4 months to get another one..

Some of the models still have a large amount of cloud trailing round the northern extent of weak ridge building from the south. Blue skies are no means a certainty so don’t be surprised if there is a fair bit of cloud suppressing temps, as usual it’s going to be borderline for some to even get one warm sunny day out this setup. Personally I really wouldn’t want to north of brum or west of Bristol. Even on the south coast I’m worried about sea fog given the humidity moving over a cold sea. 

[Frosty.]

It's all about the timing of Sunday's trough, the ukmo is a tad slower, therefore the S / SE has a very warm and increasingly humid sunday but on the Ecm it freshens up, cools down from the west quicker..time will tell!!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Yep if that heat dome gets going over the east we could be a spot of bother....

I watched the live Meto Broad/podcast earlier and they said that acceleration of the front and associated trough appeared more likely than it slowing and it could clear all the warm air from the UK by early Sunday. Again the timing from ECM would give almost nothing from a connective element in the way of a breakdown. ECM for next week is just the dogs dinner.

This - I fear - is a very likely outcome. Thundery breakdowns are all too rare in the south these days and it’s would need a very fine balance to keep everything needed in place and at the right time - especially from this far out.

Expect cloudy with *some* light showers.

[Methuselah]

30 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

How can I put this..ermm, the Ecm 12z is snot looking very good next week!

This weekend isn't a scorcher either, the uppers have been, shall we say toned down..apart from that it's all looking great!!

If only the ECM had a Kleenex...the future is Green!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Some of the models still have a large amount of cloud trailing round the northern extent of weak ridge building from the south. Blue skies are no means a certainty so don’t be surprised if there is a fair bit of cloud suppressing temps, as usual it’s going to be borderline for some to even get one warm sunny day out this setup. Personally I really wouldn’t want to north of brum or west of Bristol. Even on the south coast I’m worried about sea fog given the humidity moving over a cold sea. 

I'm not saying there will be cloudless sky's. I pointed out 25 was a possibility if we get any length of sun, and closer to 20 without it. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Have to disagree with that 20c for midlands... I would expect this with largely cloudy conditions, any length of sun, and sure to be 25-26c. One day wonder hot spell, never mind we only have 3 or 4 months to get another one..

for the member you quoted, wish we could get charts like this, day 1, and the winners, Edberg and Graf

[StormChaseUK]

21 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is a horror show at 192 hours! At the moment it has a feel of a fair few summers in the 2000s where the UK sat under the trough for weeks while Eastern Europe went into the furnace. Moscow - for example - is forecast to be 25-30c every day for the next 10-14 days.

Big landmass though, Russia is usually 25-30C in June/July 

[Djdazzle]

It won’t be anything like as bad as the ECM is showing. Those outcomes always get moderated as we approach the timeframe. We see it all the time in winter.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, StormChaseUK said:

Big landmass though, Russia is usually 25-30C in June/July 

Not really Moscow averages 22c in June and 24c in July so only a touch warmer than London. Additionally it’s the expanse of heat further north and west and up towards the Arctic.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I thought I would cheer myself up such is the negativity running through the thread again, and just to prove that CFS doesn't always show just warm weather in summer and cold in winter, as the day 7 charts will show. But there are certainly signs of improvement beyond that.... For any guests viewing right now and thinking.... Omg... What's happened to the British summer.... Fear not, its just around the corner... 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

While ECM looks like a gory horror show I think it might just be going over the top with the LP just like it went over the top on the warmer spell. ECM often tones down gory outlooks run after run. It probably wont look as bad tomorrow (fingers crossed)

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Not really Moscow averages 22c in June and 24c in July so only a touch warmer than London. Additionally it’s the expanse of heat further north and west and up towards the Arctic.

But, between 2006 and 2016, July's max averaged 25.8C...?

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean is interesting, at both T192 and T240:

It does look as there's a fair few bad boys in the mix on the 51 member ensemble suite at T192.   At T240 however this looks be supportive of an increase in pressure over the continent to the east, and either warm and settled or warm interspersed with thundery breakdowns the likely weather here.   Much uncertainty in the output at the moment, however.

Edited May 28, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

While ECM looks like a gory horror show I think it might just be going over the top with the LP just like it went over the top on the warmer spell. ECM often tones down gory outlooks run after run. It probably wont look as bad tomorrow (fingers crossed)

Agreed and T+240 looks a lot less threatening with azores ridge building in and the Atlantic low / trough has less venom compared to next midweek..next week's trough could turn out to be a much more shallow feature with light winds and sunshine & showers the main theme.

[knocker]

12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM mean is interesting, at both T192 and T240:

It does look as there's a fair few bad boys in the mix on the 51 member ensemble suite at T192.   At T240 however his looks be supportive of an increase in pressure over the continent to the east, and either warm and settled or warm interspersed with thundery breakdowns.   Much uncertainty in the output at the moment, however.

It did this on previous runs. The upper low fills quite rapidly and the trough retrogresses west as the east European high pressure ridges quite strongly

Edited May 28, 2019 by knocker

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But, between 2006 and 2016, July's max averaged 25.8C...?

That’s because it includes a whole host of the hottest summer months on record and the data is skewed away from the 30yr mean, those hottest months nearly always coinside with unsettled weather / troughing over the UK.

Edited May 28, 2019 by Alderc