Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The one thing I hate most is boring weather, and this would hardly be boring!

 

No Pete it would be a nightmare

[Frosty.]

Just now, Mattwolves said:

No Pete it would be a nightmare

It's snot all that bad!!

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The one thing I hate most is boring weather, and this would hardly be boring!

 

Jim Bowen would be happy with that, but not sure I’m liking the look of Bulley’s special prize with that low especially as I have works event planned on the beach for 600 people next Friday evening......GFS 12z is just awful through next week and wouldn’t be out of place in late October. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Joking asides guys the icon is trying to build heights at the end of its run... And let's not forget this model was the first to latch onto that failed big Estly back in January.. So perhaps one to follow with a bit more gutso

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Alderc said:

Jim Bowen would be happy with that, but not sure I’m liking the look of Bulley’s special prize with that low especially as I have works event planned on the beach for 600 people next Friday evening......GFS 12z is just awful through next week and wouldn’t be out of place in late October. 

Good job your on the beach then, you won't no the difference already being surrounded by water.. Seriously though Alderc I feel GFS is overplaying this situation, and currently ECM to, I expect a we bit of upgrading over the coming few days.... Perhaps its a feeling in me water...

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Joking asides guys the icon is trying to build heights at the end of its run... And let's not forget this model was the first to latch onto that failed big Estly back in January.. So perhaps one to follow with a bit more gutso

ICON never really builds the greeny heights as much as GFS, you can see towards the end of GFS those heights collapse allowing lower pressure to retreat westwards and a heat low SW of Iberia allowing a furnace to develop over much of Europe and eventually the UK. 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Good job your on the beach then, you won't no the difference already being surrounded by water.. Seriously though Alderc I feel GFS is overplaying this situation, and currently ECM to, I expect a we bit of upgrading over the coming few days.... Perhaps its a feeling in me water...

Have no fear, the cfs says summer is coming!!

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

No Pete it would be a nightmare

But it does lead to this: 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

GFS 12z says there's likely to be lots of cloud and cool temps once more next week meaning the current gloomfest is likely to continue for the foreseeable           

Edited May 28, 2019 by 38.5*C

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, 38.5*C said:

GFS 12z says there's likely to be lots of cloud and cool temps once more next week meaning the current gloomfest is likely to continue to for the foreseeable           

Like I said expect GFS to upgrade shortly. 

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Like I said expect GFS to upgrade shortly. 

Et voila! Zut alors! Merde alors! Brexit alors!

 

[Frosty.]

22 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

GFS 12z says there's likely to be lots of cloud and cool temps once more next week meaning the current gloomfest is likely to continue for the foreseeable           

Gloom fest in manchester...isn't it always cool gloomy and or wet in manchester?

hot and sunny in the south!

Edited May 28, 2019 by Frosty.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Here's those cfs charts i was gushing about!!

 

Would the outputs in your post result in warmth without excessive humidity, Karl?  I'm thinking that, given the Iberian cut-off low holds high pressure over central parts of the UK, the flow down here would be a gentle Easterly off a dry-ish continent rather than a southerly/south-westerly draw.

Edited May 28, 2019 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Woud the outputs in your post result in warmth without excessive humidity, Karl?  I'm thinking that, given the Iberian cut-off Low holds high pressure over central parts of the UK, the flow down here would be a gentle Easterly off a dry-ish continent rather than a southerly/south-westerly draw.

I think you're right, it looked very anticyclonic and warm / very warm but with relatively low humidity.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, Frosty. said:

I think you're right, it looked very anticyclonic and warm / very warm but with relatively low humidity.

I think I'm getting the hang of this LOL!

[mb018538]

Last summer we had repeated lows down over Iberia supporting the extended dry and hot weather in the UK with the low humidity - hence the wildfire outbreaks etc. It can be a useful feature for UK warmth!

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean, no real change from earlier, next week indicates a trough over the uk with a mixture of sunshine and heavy, slow moving thundery showers with temperatures back down close to average, perhaps a bit better across the southeast and longer term there are suggestions of a trough anchored out to the west in the atlantic and high pressure to the east with a probable continental flow into the uk, ergo, warmer and more humid with sunshine and a risk of thunderstorms but plenty of fine weather too..just my take on things!

Edited May 28, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

13 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I think I'm getting the hang of this LOL!

I thought you was an expert  Chris...

[Methuselah]

GEFS 12Z ensembles are nowhere near as catastrophic as some posters have claimed:                        

                    

There's even some much-needed rain on offer: 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

35 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I thought you was an expert  Chris...

Note the "nottheweatherman" part of my username!  It's there to differentiate me from the American chap of the same name who's a forecaster at UEA for Weatherquest, but it might as well say "chrisbell-weatheridiot"

Back to the models - I'm liking the 12z ensembles - warmth but rain down here which will be popular with frowers and farmers.

 

Edited May 28, 2019 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[MATTWOLVES 3]

10 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Note the "nottheweatherman" part of my username!  It's there to differentiate me from the American chap of the same name who's a forecaster at UEA for Weatherquest, but it might as well say "chrisbell-weatheridiot"

Back to the models - I'm liking the 12z ensembles - warmth but rain down here which will be popular with frowers and farmers.

 

Haha Chris... Yes the ensembles are decent. The FV3 is again a warm run, and the mean is also running at a respectable level..

[MATTWOLVES 3]

My god..... I only hope that ECM is overplaying this low!! 

Seriously, this wouldn't look out of place in November 

Edited May 28, 2019 by Mattwolves

[knocker]

The ecm is rushing the trough through much quicker this weekend with the surface low centred over Scotland at midday Sunday

It does scoot it through but the next trough is waiting in the wings

Edited May 28, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

How can I put this..ermm, the Ecm 12z is snot looking very good next week!

This weekend isn't a scorcher either, the uppers have been, shall we say toned down..apart from that it's all looking great!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

My god..... I only hope that ECM is overplaying this low!! 

Seriously, this wouldn't look out of place in November 

not unusual, as I said earlier, Early June sucks, 2 years ago was the same, roll on summer approx 4 weeks from now