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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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Extracts posted last week on closed thread:   The other part of the equation is the seasonal transition within the stratosphere from its winter default vortex position to its summer state. T

Greetings to you all! ? A glistening new thread for the month of May and early Summer! As we head deeper into Spring and into Summer (though I guess for some, May could be classed as a Summer

There are no apologies for self quoting a significant extract of the post the other day because its central focus becomes more primary to how NWP evolves in the remainder of this month and into the st

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3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

That ECM is one of the most vile summer runs of all time. It’s so extreme, it’s very unlikely to verify.

don't tell the express, or it'll be 4 inches of snow on the way, where the reality is snow above 300m in Scotland, temps between 10-12C elsewhere

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29 minutes ago, Alderc said:

High 20’s? 850’s are sliding through quickly and only around 10-12c, maybe under a slack pattern with several days heat built up you’d sneak 28c but given the pattern 22-25c for most, maybe London might sneak a 26/7c. I’m not saying it won’t be warm but unless something changes it won’t be wildly hot even in the SE.

We got up to 25 a few days ago with a cooler air feed... Its easily achieved in lengthy sunny spells. Also I don't take every model run has gospel.... That's why I have a tad of sanity left in me young man.... ?

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3 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

That's if that particular chart is correct yes. 

But then also it depends on depth of warmth already established. 

Also warmth in the wrap around. 

But warm very warm plenty of moisture and thundery activity into June. 

 

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31 minutes ago, Alderc said:

How can you think it’s not horrid? 

He is from Canada.... - 10 is positively barmy for cheeky monkey.. ? Seriously guys let's not get to disheartened by a bad day at the office... Things could look completely different this time tomorrow.... We should all no after the winter we just had how things can and will quickly upgrade and downgrade... ?

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12 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

We got up to 25 a few days ago with a cooler air feed... Its easily achieved in lengthy sunny spells. Also I don't take every model run has gospel.... That's why I have a tad of sanity left in me young man.... ?

Too many knee-jerk reactions, to single runs, and netweather will be offering free cruxiate-ligament treatment on NWXtra!:oldgood:

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Are we seeing a super delayed reaction to the SSW back in Jan??? The model trends and actual synoptics have been way to easterly for it to be chance.....

been away for to long, I’m sure this has been discussed. But it looks likely IMO. 

Edited by chris55
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36 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Well that ecm goes down as one of the worst early summer runs seen. 144-240 is tragically bad, wouldn’t be surprised to see mountain snow in the highlands by day 10.

Gfs @ 240hrs isn’t that dissimilar alarmingly you’d only need the mid Atlantic block reinforced a touch and you’d have a northerly from the North Pole straight down to Western Sahara via the UK. 

I’m really don’t want to sound negative but I really don’t won’t to start seeing a significant heat dome building over western Russia (Moscow) and up into the lower Arctic say near Murmansk which is exactly what could happen, that pattern and heat can be hard to shift leaving us stuck in trough central. Still too early to worry about that but as someone else said ECM sat 240hrs is just so dreadful it can’t possibly verify. 

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Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean trends more troughy and cooler from sunday onwards so a return to sunshine and heavy thundery showers if it's right.

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

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EDM1-240.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Looking at the progression of the mean EPS anomalies over three days it looks like events over the Pole are involved with the current evolution. With the breakdown of any block over northern Greenland a cross Polar  flow is established with colder air plunging south over Iceland with a strong upper flow swinging south of the trough. This would go some way to explaining the det run. Whether this be repeated is a matter of conjecture

7-12.thumb.png.107dd60a514ebedda8bcf243df89c29e.png4-9.thumb.png.a1d74943b2e1258ab81c41f083b122fc.png9-14.thumb.png.b9ac9dae24593315b3b1a3c7e700e3ac.png

NOAA in the same ball park

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Good Evening All!  The brefiest of Plumes but looking at the profile could be some serious rainfall with that brief plume across central and southern Britain

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

image.thumb.png.5f789f82bf14d94afe27992537c58529.png

18z GFS...overnight thunderstorms...please stay the same, please stay the same!

Some absolute stonkers would occur under that setup. Just about every ingredient thrown in there to breed a supercell or a big MCS or MCC. Moisture, very strong instability, trough/front for a trigger, and some wind shear in the form of the SW’ly jet combined with Southerlies and even SE’ly components at the surface. 

If the same charts are still showing at the 72hr timeframe, I’ll start to prepare. 

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From here this is according to the gfs.

Over Sunday it continues to push the Atlantic trough east which results in the very warm air being advected north over the whole of the country

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9498400.thumb.png.4ecf3799b9803baaf1ee2c79e62baeb7.pnggfs-natl_wide-t850_anom_stream-9498400.thumb.png.1a902c3d5744de4426c5d2279c58d46d.png

But as the trough starts racking north, courtesy of the blocking ridge, colder air is introduced on Monday

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9574000.thumb.png.5ebb98211cfa288b8b86471fcaaf1754.pnggfs-natl_wide-t850_anom_stream-9563200.thumb.png.e780b0bc5bfee3deac28601d59ed7f6f.png

This is not set in stone and fairly obviously the movement of the trough is crucial, not only for this period but later in the week

Edited by knocker
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12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The GEFS 00Z ensembles tell their own story:

image.thumb.png.8477587471303fd72aad72e717fe0ffc.pngimage.thumb.png.02ae1dbe8755afde3c0d62cc63213192.pngimage.thumb.png.4640fb008ea64d26173b896d10c572a3.png

Following a cooler more showery spell next week the mean trends much warmer and more humid with some continental influence with sunshine and a risk of thunderstorms... I love a story with a happy ending!!!!!!!!!!!??

Edited by Frosty.
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Two main observations from this mornings GFS 00z.

1 and mostly obviously it further accelerates the intrusion of fronts from the west during Sunday, timing seems reasonable to initiate strong home grown TS assuming there is enough heating, given there’s no real elevated plume storms would be surface based probably north of the M4 moving north east.

2. With high pressure only weakly building in GFS keeps it pretty cloudy right through Friday, Saturday & Sunday so while there will be breaks it could be a gloomfest for western areas and TS activity could be limited. 

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By 1800 Sunday the ecm has the front aligned SW > NE down the country

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And over the next 24 hours shifts the trough and colder air east

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And what is the significance of the trough sneaking east over the north of Greenland?

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-9520000.thumb.png.f9d16e8f2eac6842db23ff125dfff3c7.png

Edited by knocker
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I suppose for those who like the rain, then the models this morning look interesting for next week with many of them showing Low Pressure systems ganging up on the U.K! Especially Northern parts! Probably quite showery at times too with the risk of thunder with some low(ish) upper heights invading us at times, too!

Though as Tamara highlighted yesterday, not advisable to take the operational runs, including their ensembles at full certainty, beyond a certain period - certainly a week or more away, as they can be liable to big swings at times. For now, it seems the weather could be quite changeable/unsettled next week with many runs showing similar ideas. Could be quite cool too. Especially for Northern UK areas. 

Probably though still enough time for the trough(s) next week to become less influential and/or not as long lasting. 

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16 minutes ago, knocker said:

Notwithstanding the words of wisdom from the south coast my understanding is that this has always been so and caution has always been advisable . But at the end of the day this is the model discussion thread so we lower orders have to make a stab at it.

Yeah, that’s a fair point I guess. Certainly it has always been the case to be cautious. I think also, it’s fine to analyse any of the models, even within the FI zone (as you say this is the Model Discussion). The operational models and ensembles can be good to seek out any possible trends (the anomaly charts, particularly, being good for trend spotting and looking for consistency). It can also just generally be interesting seeing what each and every new run will produce. 

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