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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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37 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.a838f0ee5b92314e2994f4e9ccf15cd9.png

Looks absolutely horrible for my neck of the woods.

That's if that particular chart is correct yes. 

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3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

That ECM is one of the most vile summer runs of all time. It’s so extreme, it’s very unlikely to verify.

don't tell the express, or it'll be 4 inches of snow on the way, where the reality is snow above 300m in Scotland, temps between 10-12C elsewhere

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29 minutes ago, Alderc said:

High 20’s? 850’s are sliding through quickly and only around 10-12c, maybe under a slack pattern with several days heat built up you’d sneak 28c but given the pattern 22-25c for most, maybe London might sneak a 26/7c. I’m not saying it won’t be warm but unless something changes it won’t be wildly hot even in the SE.

We got up to 25 a few days ago with a cooler air feed... Its easily achieved in lengthy sunny spells. Also I don't take every model run has gospel.... That's why I have a tad of sanity left in me young man.... 😉

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3 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

That's if that particular chart is correct yes. 

But then also it depends on depth of warmth already established. 

Also warmth in the wrap around. 

But warm very warm plenty of moisture and thundery activity into June. 

 

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31 minutes ago, Alderc said:

How can you think it’s not horrid? 

He is from Canada.... - 10 is positively barmy for cheeky monkey.. 🤣 Seriously guys let's not get to disheartened by a bad day at the office... Things could look completely different this time tomorrow.... We should all no after the winter we just had how things can and will quickly upgrade and downgrade... 👍

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12 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

We got up to 25 a few days ago with a cooler air feed... Its easily achieved in lengthy sunny spells. Also I don't take every model run has gospel.... That's why I have a tad of sanity left in me young man.... 😉

Too many knee-jerk reactions, to single runs, and netweather will be offering free cruxiate-ligament treatment on NWXtra!:oldgood:

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Posted (edited)

Are we seeing a super delayed reaction to the SSW back in Jan??? The model trends and actual synoptics have been way to easterly for it to be chance.....

been away for to long, I’m sure this has been discussed. But it looks likely IMO. 

Edited by chris55

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36 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Well that ecm goes down as one of the worst early summer runs seen. 144-240 is tragically bad, wouldn’t be surprised to see mountain snow in the highlands by day 10.

Gfs @ 240hrs isn’t that dissimilar alarmingly you’d only need the mid Atlantic block reinforced a touch and you’d have a northerly from the North Pole straight down to Western Sahara via the UK. 

I’m really don’t want to sound negative but I really don’t won’t to start seeing a significant heat dome building over western Russia (Moscow) and up into the lower Arctic say near Murmansk which is exactly what could happen, that pattern and heat can be hard to shift leaving us stuck in trough central. Still too early to worry about that but as someone else said ECM sat 240hrs is just so dreadful it can’t possibly verify. 

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Posted (edited)

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean trends more troughy and cooler from sunday onwards so a return to sunshine and heavy thundery showers if it's right.

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

Edited by Frosty.

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Looking at the progression of the mean EPS anomalies over three days it looks like events over the Pole are involved with the current evolution. With the breakdown of any block over northern Greenland a cross Polar  flow is established with colder air plunging south over Iceland with a strong upper flow swinging south of the trough. This would go some way to explaining the det run. Whether this be repeated is a matter of conjecture

7-12.thumb.png.107dd60a514ebedda8bcf243df89c29e.png4-9.thumb.png.a1d74943b2e1258ab81c41f083b122fc.png9-14.thumb.png.b9ac9dae24593315b3b1a3c7e700e3ac.png

NOAA in the same ball park

610day_03.thumb.gif.5fada3bb3789ddb5e462da1a889d730c.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.869d01092b9c90a519375dba6e249dcd.gif

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Good Evening All!  The brefiest of Plumes but looking at the profile could be some serious rainfall with that brief plume across central and southern Britain

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My suspicions were correct, a plume next Sunday with overnight or evening storms. Breaking the weather for a week before a reload.

Typical summer weather cant complain 

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Posted (edited)

Slight slowdown of the heat moving away. Small steps. Both charts are same time Monday morning from gfs12z and gfs18z gfs18z has the low thurther west like I say small steps. Below is 12z Monday morning

h850t850eu.png

h850t850eu (1).png2

h850t850eu.png

Edited by weathermadbarnsleylad
Missed text

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image.thumb.png.5f789f82bf14d94afe27992537c58529.png

18z GFS...overnight thunderstorms...please stay the same, please stay the same!

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

image.thumb.png.5f789f82bf14d94afe27992537c58529.png

18z GFS...overnight thunderstorms...please stay the same, please stay the same!

Some absolute stonkers would occur under that setup. Just about every ingredient thrown in there to breed a supercell or a big MCS or MCC. Moisture, very strong instability, trough/front for a trigger, and some wind shear in the form of the SW’ly jet combined with Southerlies and even SE’ly components at the surface. 

If the same charts are still showing at the 72hr timeframe, I’ll start to prepare. 

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Posted (edited)

The North Atlantic 500mb analysis for 0300 and the surface analysis for midnight

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-9012400.thumb.png.1ea9acdf5520c17e4848a28b9116677b.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.c105fe1e14e890b4e080f98d52b32a23.gif

Showers have continued through the night in many areas and this will be the story again today. They will tend to be more intense and prolonged in the vicinity of any troughs or the fading occlusion but will tend to die out in western areas as the day progresses. Generally a rather cool day with temps a tad below average

PPVE89.thumb.gif.ff091dd6f6ee59f3bc1671d619ac618e.gif1240115708_maxtu.thumb.png.3ba2efc4e8e76fb7dccb70fa9a254c29.pngps_reflec_d02_15.thumb.png.6c0994624cc1b67081939f51331f13e6.pngps_reflec_d02_18.thumb.png.52af287629ca1b363d6d8615c7d5999d.pngps_reflec_d02_21.thumb.png.92c3c4284a198a33dc2085bbe3e2f41a.pngps_reflec_d02_24.thumb.png.d20b23817b07bf86926287a28b787239.png

The showers will continue through the evening in the east and even pep up a tad in the far north where they could be of snow on the mountains, Clearer elsewhere but by the early hours cloud and rain will effect the south west as the warm front associated with the Atlantic trough approaches

PPVG89.thumb.gif.9944be697f53393e17e3ab4454abcc10.gifp01.thumb.png.1d1fb6dabecc331971daedd3327f5f0e.pngp06.thumb.png.5aca453e5c2d181d7e9eff4ed97f3274.png

The front will track north east through Wednesday bringing outbreaks of rain in many areas, skipping the south east where it will warm up a tad (still might be the odd heavy shower in East Anglia). But this frontal system is quite complex and waves on it will bring more concentrated rain into N. Ireland by 1800

PPVI89.thumb.gif.c8d7beccd17155a1a3d26f48d6edc7a0.gif1545317575_maxwed.thumb.png.865366f094e19698e2bd66f6f996d583.pngr10.thumb.png.96812862c82c24df04124a17965dc6bf.pngr13.thumb.png.b44cc05628e87b18eb884c5db749a0d6.pngr18.thumb.png.934abac81d9763a30fe283bc5c63b5b4.png

Over Wednesday night and through Thursday this complex double frontal structure will bring a fair amount of rain to northern and western regions. And the movement of the Atlantic trough in conjunction with the subtropical high have started to advect warmer air in from the south west

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9217600.thumb.png.6c8919d8e62f61c53004eebb339b6a13.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.0f9fdbcb4c375896beb4d4010f7c6c7f.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.2ae311577f4f8edbbf2d9e41b825aacd.gif

1215853501_rainthu.thumb.png.93099c675f45902b7453d08bb097e8cf.png1293198089_maxth.thumb.png.93b05464a456dea5c6fd7297118e9b7a.png

 By Friday most of the country is in the warm sector but still a lot of rain around in the north and and even parts of the south courtesy of a stray trough which complicates matters. But despite all this quite warm day.

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9304000.thumb.png.7bd732088d509ce03fd59a08e104dae6.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.f0e0d1b277ec871c6f33844227713ccb.gif

1698648791_maxfr.thumb.png.55bff5833768f478c25c0223bb775e5a.png1206443970_rainfr.thumb.png.e010568169d3706be00c895758a65125.png

 By Saturday a weakening warm front straddles the country marking the boundary between the cooler air to the north where there will still be some rain, and the warm, moist air to the south.

gfs-natl_wide-t850_anom_stream-9390400.thumb.png.a8abf9d7c90401b507dce99c415e7b34.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.f24250da083d28a4405d509855638950.gif

590801248_rainsat.thumb.png.72765de1c22d5d35d4837f6a50b77b5c.png1004087771_maxsat.thumb.png.79562fac8f78ad37f9df34324d198e67.png

 

 

Edited by knocker

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Posted (edited)

From here this is according to the gfs.

Over Sunday it continues to push the Atlantic trough east which results in the very warm air being advected north over the whole of the country

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9498400.thumb.png.4ecf3799b9803baaf1ee2c79e62baeb7.pnggfs-natl_wide-t850_anom_stream-9498400.thumb.png.1a902c3d5744de4426c5d2279c58d46d.png

But as the trough starts racking north, courtesy of the blocking ridge, colder air is introduced on Monday

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9574000.thumb.png.5ebb98211cfa288b8b86471fcaaf1754.pnggfs-natl_wide-t850_anom_stream-9563200.thumb.png.e780b0bc5bfee3deac28601d59ed7f6f.png

This is not set in stone and fairly obviously the movement of the trough is crucial, not only for this period but later in the week

Edited by knocker

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The GEFS 00Z ensembles tell their own story:

image.thumb.png.8477587471303fd72aad72e717fe0ffc.pngimage.thumb.png.02ae1dbe8755afde3c0d62cc63213192.pngimage.thumb.png.4640fb008ea64d26173b896d10c572a3.png

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The GEFS 00Z ensembles tell their own story:

image.thumb.png.8477587471303fd72aad72e717fe0ffc.pngimage.thumb.png.02ae1dbe8755afde3c0d62cc63213192.pngimage.thumb.png.4640fb008ea64d26173b896d10c572a3.png

Following a cooler more showery spell next week the mean trends much warmer and more humid with some continental influence with sunshine and a risk of thunderstorms... I love a story with a happy ending!!!!!!!!!!!👍😜

Edited by Frosty.

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Two main observations from this mornings GFS 00z.

1 and mostly obviously it further accelerates the intrusion of fronts from the west during Sunday, timing seems reasonable to initiate strong home grown TS assuming there is enough heating, given there’s no real elevated plume storms would be surface based probably north of the M4 moving north east.

2. With high pressure only weakly building in GFS keeps it pretty cloudy right through Friday, Saturday & Sunday so while there will be breaks it could be a gloomfest for western areas and TS activity could be limited. 

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Posted (edited)

By 1800 Sunday the ecm has the front aligned SW > NE down the country

t138.thumb.png.ba6fb73f67d5eda20df631d37c3e51e3.png65368820_t138t.thumb.png.5f80af13defcec3fcc12ad86191d0475.png

And over the next 24 hours shifts the trough and colder air east

index.thumb.png.663ab403047ab823385764c09c539553.png

And what is the significance of the trough sneaking east over the north of Greenland?

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-9520000.thumb.png.f9d16e8f2eac6842db23ff125dfff3c7.png

Edited by knocker

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Regarding the last comment the 6-11 EPS mean anomaly

6-11.thumb.png.7b66a572dee942e5a9affd6ef0ff5f6d.png

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I suppose for those who like the rain, then the models this morning look interesting for next week with many of them showing Low Pressure systems ganging up on the U.K! Especially Northern parts! Probably quite showery at times too with the risk of thunder with some low(ish) upper heights invading us at times, too!

Though as Tamara highlighted yesterday, not advisable to take the operational runs, including their ensembles at full certainty, beyond a certain period - certainly a week or more away, as they can be liable to big swings at times. For now, it seems the weather could be quite changeable/unsettled next week with many runs showing similar ideas. Could be quite cool too. Especially for Northern UK areas. 

Probably though still enough time for the trough(s) next week to become less influential and/or not as long lasting. 

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16 minutes ago, knocker said:

Notwithstanding the words of wisdom from the south coast my understanding is that this has always been so and caution has always been advisable . But at the end of the day this is the model discussion thread so we lower orders have to make a stab at it.

Yeah, that’s a fair point I guess. Certainly it has always been the case to be cautious. I think also, it’s fine to analyse any of the models, even within the FI zone (as you say this is the Model Discussion). The operational models and ensembles can be good to seek out any possible trends (the anomaly charts, particularly, being good for trend spotting and looking for consistency). It can also just generally be interesting seeing what each and every new run will produce. 

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