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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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Absolutely no doubt this is a very fluent pattern. 

But with a more general southerly and south-westerly component to the patterns I'd suggest warm to very warm humid on that note thundery breakdowns become a very real possibility with such different patterns setting up around the world. 

Id punt that summer this year will hold some severe weather events for the uk. 

But in general amplifed patterns are more likely that not. 

I'd wouldn't be surprised if warm to very warm spells more often than not. 

Ecm and gem love the heights and are more than likely to be close in the long run. 

The fluid movement by the ukmo is likely to be more in-between the focus on recent months has given me a insight into progressive to slow each model has its given strengths its working out what's more likely by using combined model analysis. 

Id expect the met Office to be pretty close to actual outcomes. 

Although I don't rate the ukmo in these current set ups. 

But the human analysis is a different story. 

Like the noaa anomaly charts ect ect. 

Absolutely nothing terrible on the horizon pretty straight forward june by the looks of things. 

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I must say after a cooler unsettled blip for a time next week there is a gradual return to summery weather with high pressure and warmer temperatures according to the GEFS 12z mean! 👍

And here's my evidence!!!👍😜

I can see there being rinse and repeat summery spells interspersed by a few cooler unsettled days but I'm hoping we will then see more sustained summery spells!!!🌞

GFSAVGEU12_318_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_342_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_342_2.png

GFSAVGEU12_378_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_384_2.png

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Posted (edited)

Sunday looks hot further s / e on the Ecm 12z..hot weekend further south..Saturday warm / very warm..Sunday hot!👍🔥

So, essentially the Ecm has slowed things down compared to the Ukmo which had the cooler air across most of the uk by sunday.

144_thickuk.png

144_mslp850.png

144_thick.png

Edited by Frosty.

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17 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Absolutely no doubt this is a very fluent pattern. 

But with a more general southerly and south-westerly component to the patterns I'd suggest warm to very warm humid on that note thundery breakdowns become a very real possibility with such different patterns setting up around the world. 

Id punt that summer this year will hold some severe weather events for the uk. 

But in general amplifed patterns are more likely that not. 

I'd wouldn't be surprised if warm to very warm spells more often than not. 

Ecm and gem love the heights and are more than likely to be close in the long run. 

The fluid movement by the ukmo is likely to be more in-between the focus on recent months has given me a insight into progressive to slow each model has its given strengths its working out what's more likely by using combined model analysis. 

Id expect the met Office to be pretty close to actual outcomes. 

Although I don't rate the ukmo in these current set ups. 

But the human analysis is a different story. 

Like the noaa anomaly charts ect ect. 

Absolutely nothing terrible on the horizon pretty straight forward june by the looks of things. 

image.thumb.png.a838f0ee5b92314e2994f4e9ccf15cd9.png

Looks absolutely horrible for my neck of the woods.

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12Z ensembles are here: image.thumb.png.fad66f00822f53b8d0de08c0c6223197.pngimage.thumb.png.fcb32ae88d348cc641c3d9d45f8ad585.png

  And they look better for rainfall:                      image.thumb.png.c73fd773fc02bc66e39e19a7c5f5e731.png

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.a838f0ee5b92314e2994f4e9ccf15cd9.png

Looks absolutely horrible for my neck of the woods.

I sympathise NWS, in a NW/SE split, your neck of the woods wouldn't be ideal... Hopefully something better for you real soon, on a more positive, some serious heat possible in the SE on Sunday... High 20s no problem. 

ECM0-144.gif

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Posted (edited)

A poor set of 12z’s across the board, you can have all the knowledge in the world but a warm start to June bar the 1st day, maybe the second in the extreme south east looks unlikely. A very unwelcome and relatively deep fetching northerly becoming likely into next week, that was the forecast for this week off course so it could, and probably will be watered down somewhat. 

Gfs ensembles now progging the 3-10th comfortably below average, 48hrs the mean was pretty much 10c @ 850pha through to the end of run. 

It might alright people saying ‘summer doesn’t really start until late June’ but in a country where at least 9-10months of the year is cold and dull every downgrade 1st May - 1st October is frustrating. 

Edited by Alderc

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.a838f0ee5b92314e2994f4e9ccf15cd9.png

Looks absolutely horrible for my neck of the woods.

how is that chart "absolutely horrible" ??

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

12Z ensembles are here: image.thumb.png.fad66f00822f53b8d0de08c0c6223197.pngimage.thumb.png.fcb32ae88d348cc641c3d9d45f8ad585.png

  And they look better for rainfall:                      image.thumb.png.c73fd773fc02bc66e39e19a7c5f5e731.png

or worse Ed! depends how you view it, but for the majority they look better, I;m in minority wanting it dry/settled, wouldn't say no to an evening thunderstorm though!

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The ecm has the Atlantic trough in close attendance by Friday with fronts pushing rain across the north of the country. After a brief ridge a similar scenario on Saturday before a more generally unsettled day on Monday as a shallow low settles over the UK. This evolution does advect warmer, and very moist,  air into the country on the quite long south westerly fetch but how far north this gets is still up for debate, but it does suggest the distinct possibility of thundery outbreaks.

t102.thumb.png.9de0620c9a29ab12876460cb270e8cc7.pngt126.thumb.png.b42ec8edbfb0c3ce1d8d3ed6aff60b6a.pngt150.thumb.png.92395b4bce7b5551ce6d8757e2f3bda5.png

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You just couldn't make it up.... Go straight to the naughty corner ECM. incoming - 12 uppers.... Its so ridiculous I could cry 😂

ECM0-192.gif

F1E4CD7A-ED68-496F-9C37-A166975CEDAA.gif.b4e6f22aad13edd1c74905175d85f0e3.gif.244e76a445f1b7fe98d7c9dfe621c1c6.gif

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3 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

how is that chart "absolutely horrible" ??

I’d say a strong low (for June) with unsettled weather, wind rain and 850s between 0-2c in the first week of June fits the bill pretty well!

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Posted (edited)

I imagine a risk of thunderstorms on sunday further s / e with hot sticky air in place on the Ecm 12z.

ECM0-144.gif

Edited by Frosty.

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5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I sympathise NWS, in a NW/SE split, your neck of the woods wouldn't be ideal... Hopefully something better for you real soon, on a more positive, some serious heat possible in the SE on Sunday... High 20s no problem. 

ECM0-144.gif

High 20’s? 850’s are sliding through quickly and only around 10-12c, maybe under a slack pattern with several days heat built up you’d sneak 28c but given the pattern 22-25c for most, maybe London might sneak a 26/7c. I’m not saying it won’t be warm but unless something changes it won’t be wildly hot even in the SE.

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6 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

how is that chart "absolutely horrible" ??

Because it would likely be very supressed temps and heavy showers on a north westerly.

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7 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

how is that chart "absolutely horrible" ??

How can you think it’s not horrid? 

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2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

How can you think it’s not horrid? 

Some people love green snot..each to their own 👍

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44 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

That's a fair point, but I can't see the logic in an unsettled summer, if that's the case we go into winter with hardly any sun at all. Then we follow it up with 4 or 5 months of more gloom. What a depressing year that would make for. 

We've had plenty of sun and usable days thus far and likely there will be many more to come before August is out. Last year was extreme for a good couple of months in terms of dryness. 

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Some people love green snot..each to their own 👍

Prefer it to blue, maybe wintry showers in Scotland here

ECM0-240.GIF?27-0

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6 minutes ago, Alderc said:

How can you think it’s not horrid? 

this would be what i call horrid for June

archives-1985-6-12-6-0.png

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Well that ecm goes down as one of the worst early summer runs seen. 144-240 is tragically bad, wouldn’t be surprised to see mountain snow in the highlands by day 10.

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Roger J Smith and Gavs weather vids are hinting at more of a back loaded summer this year, so don’t fret at this stage!

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That ECM is one of the most vile summer runs of all time. It’s so extreme, it’s very unlikely to verify.

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