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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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Major models now backtracking away from recent suggestions of an arrival of summer only the GFS seems to be taking slower steps in eroding away any fine spell. ECM wipes it away as quickly as it appeared and HP getting shunted northwards keeping on to the threat of cool Northerlies once more.    

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20 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

No drama folks, it ends well... But it's GFS and it always ends well.. 👍

gfs-0-384.png

gfs-1-384.png

Well, the FV3 really does end with a stonker!

image.thumb.png.158ed3813e6913f01fe5e2fbc87ba79f.pngimage.thumb.png.8f44eabc3e2405478ff2dbb7d48f3f84.pngGreat model!:oldgrin:

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The GEFS 6z mean isn't looking too healthy at T+204 hours if you want it hot next week but towards the end of this week still looks great further south if you're a fan of heat and sunshine.👍

GFSAVGEU06_204_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_204_2.png

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All gone a bit rubbish. I hope these mid Atlantic ridges aren't going to be a feature of the Summer.

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, the FV3 really does end with a stonker!

image.thumb.png.158ed3813e6913f01fe5e2fbc87ba79f.pngimage.thumb.png.8f44eabc3e2405478ff2dbb7d48f3f84.pngGreat model!:oldgrin:

Great model this one!! 😄200w_d.gif

Edited by TomW

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3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

All gone a bit rubbish. I hope these mid Atlantic ridges aren't going to be a feature of the Summer.

Still early days but those pesky ridges along with the associated trough that is usually planted over the UK has given some dreadful summer in the past 15years and something once anchored can hang around a while. The gfs mean at t204 is just awful. Need to get these lows up to our NW and higher pressure of Greenland collapsing. 

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The good news is the GEFS 6z mean becomes much more summery longer term 👍

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To much summarising going on the back of  a couple of operational runs! Seeing a dodgy day 8 or 9 and then trying to make comparisons with previous rubbish summers is pretty pointless.. The ensembles ain't to bad, it looks relatively dry beyond a short lived cooler unsettled blip. And the FV3 was a very warm run. 

graphe3_1000_287_71___.png

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8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The good news is the GEFS 6z mean becomes much more summery longer term 👍

I think next week is too early for summer weather, may be on the right track for later in June, Summer here dosen't start really until just before Wimbledon

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Posted (edited)

A big pile of straws would be needed to hope the likes of the NAVGEM 00Z run comes off, lol!

DC878969-797D-4393-B2E0-7EC0D38235FE.thumb.png.04bbca1e9836526c8cd418bcae2fec58.pngB385874F-4599-4A42-89E7-EF91F26E87F3.thumb.png.fd815cb33a979122c06bb28fe881cfed.pngA8043751-8E9A-4831-AF0D-0BB9BF325AC8.thumb.png.6e2297e0a9b1f24709404ee55788a294.pngB7AE4086-6DBC-4910-AF06-A230836A9E18.thumb.png.2214fccb450be191275f230a77940857.pngA130B9BC-E3A5-4495-8451-395C05222673.thumb.png.aaa04d78e5d42116e2f70087d917c252.png1C69B429-5BF8-4927-8D14-A259ED3066F7.thumb.png.007866e0c0d951d0111329974e59359f.png928FC418-2F7A-4597-B2B3-BC86C66AD608.thumb.jpeg.3347483d49b1fb74e25ba181983a87ca.jpeg

Not perfect, but compared to quite a number of other operational models, it shows a fair amount of ridging over the UK between 120 hours to 180 hours. Albeit with the strongest heights generally over Southern and South-Eastern UK. Low Pressure a little more influential over North-Western areas at times with the odd bit of rain at times, but probably nothing too disturbed. 

What would actually be the chances of this model coming off? Becomes a serious straw clutching moment when the likes of the NAVGEM gets dished out! 😂

Not impossible it could be right. Depends I guess whether some of the other runs, such as the 00Z ECMWF, are suddenly being too aggressive with Low Pressure and troughing over the U.K next week. While it looks plausible and the likes of the ECMWF is likely reacting to new signals its picking up on, it could very well be over-doing Low Pressure. 

May just be worth placing yourself on top of one of these until the picture for next week becomes (somewhat) more clearer.

8C45F7A7-98D7-48E4-842D-8F5C22B7294F.thumb.jpeg.e132f867a724794f72f69fe526966596.jpeg

Bearing in mind, the certainty of the weather a week or two away is never always that clear, really. Still looking likely the weather will settle down later this week (maybe still breaking down during the late part of the weekend), especially over Southern areas and becoming warmer too with a flow between the South and West.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine

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Nae a bad set of 06Z ensembles:image.thumb.png.e4dd00beb70be5cf662bae3c3f4a7d7d.png                                                                                                             image.thumb.png.8947c80e84d5b083593d82c5045e2eaa.png

                                                     image.thumb.png.a7b159c1d92124b0de8f621ab854f358.png 

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The clusters are certainly supporting the det runs idea of the Atlantic trough, with no little help from the north becoming very influential from t120

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052700_120.thumb.png.afda589f14d857370e8e4982e787966b.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052700_144.thumb.png.c51369842e399bb8162d8ea9f31b249f.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052700_168.thumb.png.7a3be1a6a378da45dd1d9179b66bcabf.pngt120.thumb.png.5cb348de522b67d870af2989afd7c55b.pngt144.thumb.png.52f85f22268dedbb52cb00c3eb48f5e0.pngt168.thumb.png.7f58e5962dd1d54c6ff6804faadfedae.png

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3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I think next week is too early for summer weather, may be on the right track for later in June, Summer here dosen't start really until just before Wimbledon

It wasn't to early last year though!! I think it's irrelevant wether it starts before or after Wimbledon. Unless of course the weather is a Serena Williams fan.... 😂

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CFS also highlights low pressure by day 7/8.but beyond day 10 it really delivers the goods with strong ridging.... And it has been for a few days now. 

cfs-0-168.png

cfs-0-192.png

cfs-0-240.png

cfs-0-264.png

cfs-0-300.png

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5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

It wasn't to early last year though!! I think it's irrelevant wether it starts before or after Wimbledon. Unless of course the weather is a Serena Williams fan.... 😂

I’d sacrifice the first 2 weeks of June for a decent August. It’s only been a 16 year wait!

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1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

I’d sacrifice the first 2 weeks of June for a decent August. It’s only been a 16 year wait!

Your location good for August, best summer month isn't it in SE, where as full on autumn in Scotland

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Looking increasingly likely the 1st week of June is going to be cack.

Hoping things improve thereafter.

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14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looking increasingly likely the 1st week of June is going to be cack.

Well this is the uk, not the mediterranean...PS..Great post again from Tamara.👍

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well this is the uk, not the mediterranean...PS..Great post again from Tamara.👍

Yes as always an excellent read.... But to nail down that post is what I myself keep harping on about... You just can't start making bold predictions on the back of a couple of operational runs!! Especially when they are not like for like runs. It's just that Tamara puts it so much better than me, and I always feel that bit more reassured when she posts!! Because as you will be aware, it doesn't take very much for the positivity to be thrown out the Netweather window here. 

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well this is the uk, not the mediterranean...PS..Great post again from Tamara.👍

Yes quite right karl, but 13 degrees and heavy rain tomorrow round these parts is bad even for the UK..

Atleast a nice weekend beckons, esp for the south.

Maybe i was a tad pessimistic, i allowed myself to be seduced by charts in the unreliable.

🙂

Edited by northwestsnow

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Thanks Tamara: I do love summers in which we are 'on the cusp', the 'borderline', or even in the space where the separate parts of a Venn diagram overlap...Whatever the metaphor, variety is the spice of weather-watching, IMO?:oldgood:

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Thanks Tamara for your thoughts..

 

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Posted (edited)

She had a good teacher in me folks... 🤣 Eyes down for something more positive in this evenings runs... Oh the joys of model watching... Trainspotting would be far less stressful... Enjoy the rest of your Bank Holiday folks... Still looking good for an end of week warm up, let's just hope the signal intensifies... 👍👍

Edited by Mattwolves

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