Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

The ukmo 12h starts to improve from next wednesday but then really accelerates towards a return of summery weather further south by friday..I would expect things to just continue improving thereafter with temperatures next weekend into the mid 20's celsius across southern uk!👍

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The FV3 12z becomes incredible..great model!!:whistling:...charts incoming!😉

GFSPARAEU12_312_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_336_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_360_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_360_17.png

GFSPARAEU12_384_17.png

GFSPARAEU12_384_1.png

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

FV3's fine: still plenty of sunshine and feeling much more comfortable:

image.thumb.png.54d16b42c2d5d0290ce14d95f6335671.pngimage.thumb.png.01fe660b05a48c1ccc4a66fe3f10841b.png :oldgood:

PS: Great model!:oldgrin:

Edited by Ed Stone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow! Looking like a proper spell of settled anticyclonic weather is on its way, that low pressure west of Biscay would pump some seriously warm air our way! I bloody love synoptics like this in June!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gfs12z seems to have a downgrade on the temps for NW and Scotland with the heat confined only to the South only while Northern and Western England continue to eagerly await decent heat.  This is normal for late August never mind early June. .

 

 

ukmaxtemp2.png

ukmaxtemp3444.png

ukmaxtemp14.png

ukmaxtemp4.png

ukmaxtemp3.png

ukmaxtemp.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wowzer just look how close +16uppers are getting to our shores!! This as the potential to melt the tarmac... May improve the potholes.... 😉

gfs-1-228.png

gfs-1-240.png

gfs-1-288.png

gfs-1-300.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

For a while the Gem 12z is sensational, mid to high 20's celsius and gorgeous plentiful sunshine under big high pressure to the E  / SE  importing hot continental air into the uk..hopefully setting up a rinse and repeat beyond day 10..what a start to summer this could be!👍

gem-0-144.png

gem-1-144.png

gem-0-168.png

gem-1-168.png

gem-0-192.png

gem-1-192.png

gem-0-216.png

gem-1-216.png

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The FV3 12z becomes incredible..great model!!:whistling:...charts incoming!😉

GFSPARAEU12_312_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_336_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_360_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_360_17.png

GFSPARAEU12_384_17.png

GFSPARAEU12_384_1.png

Amazing that It was described as crap this morning (not by you) when it didn't show what some people wanted what a fickle bunch some are

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

Amazing that It was described as crap this morning (not by you) when it didn't show what some people wanted what a fickle bunch some are

Regular posters are aware of inherent problems with the FV3, I don't know if the issues have been resolved yet but anyway it's light hearted mockery of this model which I'm sure it doesn't mind since it's not human!...  no complaints about the 12z though..it's a cracker!👍

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mon Dieu! What an ensemble!:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.ce1dbc20ad5513707dc2c6ac065333a2.pngimage.thumb.png.5e4148c4569ed5989d295c8c91fd459e.pngimage.thumb.png.d487c2af3d5a6cd2980cbdd1f32af243.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Longer term the GEFS 12z mean is fantastic..waves goodbye..actually sticks 2 fingers up at the green snot as it departs for greenland!!!:oldp:

GFSAVGEU12_312_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_336_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_360_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_384_1.png

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

ECM is looking like it's gonna be on the money out to day 6.....in the name of greace lightning..... Summer loving had me a blast.... Summer loving its happening so fast...  

Plenty of warmth out to day 10,low pressure to the NW as well at this stage.... But long way off.. 

ECM1-96.gif

ECM1-120.gif

ECM1-144.gif

ECM0-144.gif

ECM0-168 (1).gif

ECM0-192.gif

ECM0-216.gif

ECM0-240.gif

ECM1-240.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
Adding charts

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM 12z out to T144, and summer is arriving.  Properly.  

image.thumb.jpg.6ea2c8eb9c1e81038a3eee06619571ef.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.0a5a39f31fd4014020292fa1412f3d69.jpg

When the models start to flock together in favour of an outcome to the extent of today, they rarely backtrack. The corollary of this of course is that often seen in winter when the models back away from a cold solution and no way do they come back!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Every day, summer's getting closer; going faster than a rollercoaster, come what may...

image.thumb.png.b76228014d848ad5a53334a125afc0ca.png:yahoo:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

dosen't look as good to me, still good though away from the NW, a chart more typical of August, than early June

ECM1-192.GIF?25-0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nae bad!!👍😁🔥

168_thickuk.png

168_mslp850.png

168_thick.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Nae bad!!👍😁🔥

168_thickuk.png

168_mslp850.png

168_thick.png

Tis a little warm, is that! image.thumb.png.ce9203b6201fdf4e69548a77930ea352.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

ECM 12z mean, well at T144 supportive of what we think we already know, high pressure ridging from the south to the UK:

image.thumb.jpg.4154eb4101e36639e2c970b49d0f164c.jpg

By T240, uncertainty gets in the mix:

image.thumb.jpg.a75c218f6466a60ad0876b603010ee3a.jpg

But it remains a healthy set up for settled warm weather further into summer.  Would be interesting to see the clusters if anyone wants to post them.  (The link is on my work computer, so I go into this long weekend clusterless!)

Edited by Mike Poole

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good Evening All! Hints of a Spanish Plume next week ...I'm getting Excited 👍

ecmt850.168.png

h850t850eu-1.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Decent day of model watching, here are the ensembles... More ups and downs than a day in my head... . 

graphe_ens3.png

Edited by Mattwolves

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean indicates a north / south split developing next week with summer returning to the south following a brief cooler changeable blip but more mixed  / meh further north.

EDM1-144.gif

EDM0-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM0-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM0-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM0-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

EDM0-240.gif

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Certainly for the south later next week looks warmer and drier far more uncertain for the north where low pressure and remain remains 

ecm2.2019053112_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.1a3df527c33255d2c0fc7c5d83799ed6.pngukm2.2019053112_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.44b5ab9bcbb93536552fdeab9f01db04.pnggfs2.2019053112_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.60bf0b99687c5afb3e610f82e034de46.png

ecm2.2019060112_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.2fd0b1828dd8482cc8eb0d19b0d41aa1.pngukm2.2019060112_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.80f138fa8acba3a74156b4a0f31129f5.pnggfs2.2019060112_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.fa0ca7fa9b0e9f40c3efb41282b022db.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just love seeing these charts. June is my favourite month. I am a extreme heat lover but June trumps the lot for its long days and blissful evenings. There’s nothing better than 25c+ and low wind on a June evening. 

Looks a very promising start for the Summer. Really really hoping for a 2018 repeat. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...