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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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Yes Pete rather worrying thing about the FV3 is it's persistence at some point to place a cold pool over the UK, just Imagine how this models is gonna drive all the coldies crazy come winter!! Anyhow ECM still painting a rather nice picture come end of next week and has summer sum as posted, very respectable temperatures. Anywhere South of Northern England potentially nudging mid 20s I would have thought! So not a bad start today folks if you like a bit of warmth! Anyhow have a great Bank Holiday if you can.. 👍

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ECM0-144.gif

ECM0-192 (1).gif

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gfs-0-174.png?6

Lovely ridge of high pressure just in time for the start of meteorological summer!

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Posted (edited)

Looking at the Gem 0z the south is barely affected by the cool unsettled few days during the first half of next week, it just becomes a bit cooler with a few showers for a time before temperatures are on the rise along with high pressure / strong ridging..we could be seeing mid 20's celsius later next week across southern uk with plenty of sunshine.

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Edited by Frosty.

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Good enough for me!:yahoo:image.thumb.png.12fed940019cc8bc054d25ac6791b404.pngimage.thumb.png.1a7b26a5bc51f6cf05542a69b46832c9.png

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Thank you, not, FV3! I blame May, for putting Chris Grayling (The Man With The Reverse Midas Touch) in charge of the weather?:oops:

image.thumb.png.aeef69b81e3c65320c056532a8c76aaa.pngimage.thumb.png.fcecd4ed89090b70294d0997937bed65.png 

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GFS 6z has UK under an anticyclone at T144.

image.thumb.jpg.d3d1185007e08efc8589e353a1c5c24e.jpg

Warm and settled through to T192, and thereafter:

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This looks to a good setup to be in at the very start of summer, potential for reloads a plenty.  And the 0z output was very promising also.  

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Thank you, not, FV3! I blame May, for putting Chris Grayling (The Man With The Reverse Midas Touch) in charge of the weather?:oops:

image.thumb.png.aeef69b81e3c65320c056532a8c76aaa.pngimage.thumb.png.fcecd4ed89090b70294d0997937bed65.png 

Crap model, unless it shows high pressure that is😉..still, I'm not concerned about the FV3 since there is plenty of good stuff showing elsewhere!!👍

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Posted (edited)

Fabulous GEFS 6z mean, especially for southern uk beyond the cooler unsettled blip next week..!!!👍

GFSAVGEU06_156_1.png

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Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)

Not sure if anyone has mentioned the ukmo 0h but it does show a gradual improvement, especially further south beyond T+72 hours, warming up nicely by T+144 hours..further south!👍

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

Edited by Frosty.

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If a picture paints a thousand words, three pictures ought to paint a thesis...GEFS 06Z ensembles::shok:

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So I'll let the data speak for themselves?:oldgood:

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Model output today beyond this weeks chilly episode it looks like summer is going to come crashing in bang on time for June, temperatures hitting mid to high 20s in SE and finally warming up in the North too with the suggestion of a plume...Finally the minions in the GFS headquarters are using red crayon on their 2m temp charts. Maybe they ran out of green crayon.  🤣

 

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I'll reserve judgement on how things might pan out start of summer proper.. end of spring looks rather mixed, cool in the north, some welcome rain for some. Not much to talk about at the moment. I'm just dipping in and out of model watching.. 

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Some right continental heat breaking out as we go into June. Looks like the turning point for regular heat source to spew out in europe and we seem to be in a great position with the output in last 48 hours. Hottest days of the year look likely to be coming as we move towards next weekend or slightly earlier 

 

MT8_London_ens.png

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Posted (edited)

Markyo won't like this but the majority will..the GEFS 6z shows some support for a hot spell in early June!!👍🔥😜

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Edited by Frosty.

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I'm looking forward to it, Karl, but I do have some sympathy with Markyo: very short, hot and humid plumes (such as the one that hit on 16/6/16) can cause folks to commit acts of long-lasting self-harm.

Otherwise, here in June, the sea-breeze removes most of the discomfort after, say, 11 am. And mostly quite calm conditions, like those being signalled, are ideal.:oldgood:

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Posted (edited)

Positive signs at only 72hrs from the Icon, high pressure already beginning to ridge from the SW... In the words of take that.... Could it be magic now.. 😉

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Edited by Mattwolves
Adding charts

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Posted (edited)

Another chance for some slow-moving heavy showers...away from Scotland?

image.thumb.png.b19e94f6026cf1e0753731b8385bbe92.pngimage.thumb.png.a00aa6af6261707169e96659d2b61ed6.png 

Well, I very-much hope so; unless things change, we mightn't be seeing any more for a while...

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Edited by Ed Stone

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Posted (edited)

Looking ever more like a plume of sorts is incoming:

image.thumb.png.d8553bf79caa9761db89e116dedbb762.pngimage.thumb.png.607fd579bbc68e2c64cccf62e47ddd6f.png 

Edited by Ed Stone

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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Looking ever more like a plume of sorts is incoming:

image.thumb.png.d8553bf79caa9761db89e116dedbb762.pngimage.thumb.png.607fd579bbc68e2c64cccf62e47ddd6f.png 

Indeed, to be honest I'm hoping that high pressure builds in strongly rather than a blink or miss it plume followed by cooler fresher atlantic air.

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To misquote Enter The Dragon: a plume of extwaordinawy pwoportions!:shok:

image.thumb.png.3b02648a19524cb9421cc5efdd534f35.pngimage.thumb.png.0a6ae2f786adcf32cf8f6ffa1f2de576.png 

Hopefully the first of many potentially very-thundery, transient 'breakdowns'!:yahoo:

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Yes the plume is holding on each run..  And perfect time of year to have one too !

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The Fv3 goes high pressure crazy!!!🌞

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