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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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Marvelous EC tonight with High pressure heralding the start of June..

Game changer? Hope so 🙂

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Posted (edited)

The ecm doesn't amplify a la gfs thus the upper trough tracks east rather than SE by S and thus the UK is not plunged into the cold northerly. Merely frontal systems tracking east around the subtropical high

t120.thumb.png.538fc55db387eb90994cefe4c538d3a1.pngt144.thumb.png.4d6316711ebdd8fb73ea4959c3ea4dc1.pngt169.thumb.png.84fd24ce2ac1b65ac1358ab908228e7b.png

Edited by knocker

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31td7h.thumb.gif.a0df72c7d29e5bd687411d38c5a76394.gif31td7h.gif2.thumb.gif.1c168e70a7c9af1009977c9fc05761a2.gif

Summer incoming!

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Posted (edited)

I thought the Gem 12z was really good but the Ecm 12z has raised the bar!!..stunning turnaround from cool and unsettled early next week to hot and sunny by the end of the week..hope so!!🔥🌞👍

192_thickuk.png

192_mslp850.png

 

216_mslp850.png

216_thick.png

216_thickuk.png

240_thickuk.png

240_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.

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I think we have a full house! image.thumb.png.3193ba9e44377285967eeb9308ed118e.png :yahoo:

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Posted (edited)

Slight difference in 850s on the GFS 12z and the ECM 12z at day 8 . Is the ECM leading you summer lovers up the garden path ? It leads us up the garden path in winter lol . 

9839B2C8-13FA-4676-BD86-22037110F7BD.png

D63F731E-9DCF-4F22-9180-27105081AA3A.png

Edited by ICE COLD

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Slight difference in 850s on the GFS 12z and the ECM 12z at day 8 . Is the ECM leading you summer lovers up the garden path ? It leads up the garden path in winter lol . 

9839B2C8-13FA-4676-BD86-22037110F7BD.png

D63F731E-9DCF-4F22-9180-27105081AA3A.png

Aye, still FI, but summer weather in summer way more likely to come off in FI, than cold in winter

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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, still FI, but summer weather in summer way more likely to come off in FI, than cold in winter

Your correct with that statement... GFS does take longer to warm us up, but boy does it end well... 👍

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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, still FI, but summer weather in summer way more likely to come off in FI, than cold in winter

And, don't forget, we also have the background signals working in our favour, this time? Oh, hang on!:shok:

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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And, don't forget, we also have the background signals working in our favour, this time? Oh, hang on!:shok:

on that, hopefully they will suggest wet and windy summer

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7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean was never going to be as extreme as the operational but it's trending to a much more summery further outlook all the same, especially further south!!👍

Love it Karl, and especially has your from up North its good to see how you always flag up the better conditions further South... Certainly no bias on your behalf mate... Good stuff 👍

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Posted (edited)

ICON 18z at T120:

image.thumb.jpg.0c4eac46692eb22a5944b6958a8e5e15.jpg

Compared with 12z at T126:

image.thumb.jpg.37baaa512f29f992c3fdf84bd7dd8be7.jpg

Latest run looks  more aggressive with the ridge, The connection of this ridge with the heights to the north is what gives us the UK high later, more details of course from the pub run and the FV3 pub run, but others will have to commentate on those, as I am knackered (busy week), but maybe it's good on two counts that May is nearly out.  Roll on June....

Edited by Mike Poole

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38 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 18z at T120:

image.thumb.jpg.0c4eac46692eb22a5944b6958a8e5e15.jpg

Compared with 12z at T126:

image.thumb.jpg.37baaa512f29f992c3fdf84bd7dd8be7.jpg

Latest run looks  more aggressive with the ridge, The connection of this ridge with the heights to the north is what gives us the UK high later, more details of course from the pub run and the FV3 pub run, but others will have to commentate on those, as I am knackered (busy week), but maybe it's good on two counts that May is nearly out.  Roll on June....

May went earlier today 😉

(That been done already?)

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18z GFS offers hope for first week of June

Will bank the 18z 

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Pretty respectable 00z runs again this morning - the first weekend of June is shaping up to be fairly warm by the looks of things. Hard to say what happens after, but the cool weather is disappearing!

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12 hours ago, knocker said:

The ecm doesn't amplify a la gfs thus the upper trough tracks east rather than SE by S and thus the UK is not plunged into the cold northerly. Merely frontal systems tracking east around the subtropical high

t120.thumb.png.538fc55db387eb90994cefe4c538d3a1.pngt144.thumb.png.4d6316711ebdd8fb73ea4959c3ea4dc1.pngt169.thumb.png.84fd24ce2ac1b65ac1358ab908228e7b.png

is the ecm in error then? or is it progressive ? the ecm is supposed to be the most accurate model but surely it has brought on the hot blast rather early.
of course the noaa charts do not agree with such a hot blast quite so early, and the ecm appears to be alone in its timing of any potential hot blast.

 

610day.03 june.gif

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Using the 500 mb anomaly charts is less than normally consistent at the moment. A few days ago they suggested troughing as the main feature, today/last evening they suggest a flattish ridge as being the main feature around the UK, see below.

In each scenario the flow is from the Atlantic.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

In each case the pattern suggests no longish spell with any summer heat yet showing. Well that is how it seems to me.

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On the face of it, it looks like summery weather will be on the way back next week at least to the south according to the Ecm 00z ensemble mean!👍🌞

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM0-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM0-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM0-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

EDM0-240.gif

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No complaints about the 00Z, this morning:

image.thumb.png.daf4d09d1e7d4fc2360515a3f806905a.pngimage.thumb.png.0cc5450ae11f220bd82a82dbc071281d.png 

 

Though the FV3 (crap model!) has found yet another bogey:

image.thumb.png.2d115830d4396c1260d2b408b761494b.pngimage.thumb.png.75641c7dae9f21519a3e81a13dbd0905.png

 

00Z ensembles are fine:image.thumb.png.ee966943bec508758444675332706fa0.pngimage.thumb.png.0e60736ad8a0e54e57a40a366cd0985f.png

image.png

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Yes the updates keep the warming trend with a plume of warm air, or push of warm air from the south. 

And considering the patterns we have been having were stagnant, we could be in a plume setup that lasts for several days (reserve that excitement for now)

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A chance of some intense thundery downpours come Tuesday...We certainly need some rain!:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.b089ad6d59966dd3c43d6da1f5d2c4f1.pngimage.thumb.png.c0933bd694cb5b5cbcf5cbf2fa116411.png 

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