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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Looking good. Portents pending! Sunny starts, lightish winds, good convection, lovely cloudscapes, reasonable temperatures...What more could one want?:oldgood:

    image.thumb.png.a05ff9564f6848c8fdf8c80a347c983d.pngimage.thumb.png.347609c3803675e5fbf74dc905c438d7.png 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

    Yes nws, good point, this month perhaps a tale of two halves! I've come across a few quotes saying the chances of a repeat of last summer or persistent heat are a little lower due to the atmosphere looking a little more chaotic, but perhaps good for very warm spells followed by thundery rinse and repeat episodes.... And that will sure to please many. 

    Lets hope the 2nd of May is better then the first half!

    The first half looks dreadful!

    EC is better at day 10 than GFS but the Atlantic looks very active at this juncture.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
    44 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    So it's a coldish bank holiday period to come, especially up North.

    Set to be the coldest on record currently. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    Just now, Polar Maritime said:

    Set to be the coldest on record currently. 

    Amazing, and this time last year it was the complete opposite! And this is why the British weather always makes for compulsive talking points. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    Amazing, and this time last year it was the complete opposite! And this is why the British weather always makes for compulsive talking points. 

    Indeed, I think it reached 29c 84f..this year it could struggle to reach 13c 55f!:shok:

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Indeed, I think it reached 29c 84f..this year it could struggle to reach 13c 55f!:shok:

    Yeh that's about right Karl. On a positive note and like Summer Sun pointed out yesterday there is heat building to our South... I noticed in seville temps above 80 the other day, it's not going to take much to drag this heat Northwards, high pressure to the East will do for a start, I can see the 84f you just mentioned, being challenged come months end! And what a contrast this month would have been if that comes off! 10c at the beginning, and 28/29 come the end.... They used to say the phrase.... Only in America!!! Well it should be changed to.... Only in the UK! ?

    Edited by Mattwolves
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Again there are signs that the azores high could start to play a bigger part as far as the uk is concerned from around mid month according to the GEFS 6z mean.?

     

    21_300_500mb.png

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Could this be it: +15C uppers incoming!:yahoo:

    image.thumb.png.1a0dd073142d835328a1dadc9ed220bd.pngimage.thumb.png.4a2047e716d17558c4517f2b4a2e3c62.png Yabbadabbadoooooo!

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Impressive stuff from the 6z FV3.. didn't know it had it in it!!!!.. it's a plume jim but not as we know it!!!..?

    GFSPARAEU06_228_1.png

    GFSPARAEU06_228_2.png

    GFSPARAEU06_240_2.png

    giphy (2).gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Could do without a Greeny High though?

    image.thumb.png.ad16285885146e5ab2acf2bcc3fc599d.pngimage.thumb.png.6fa2dc91d281a36951e4fac6f9de7898.png 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Could do without a Greeny High though?

    image.thumb.png.ad16285885146e5ab2acf2bcc3fc599d.pngimage.thumb.png.6fa2dc91d281a36951e4fac6f9de7898.png 

    Let's get the plume in first Ed.????

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Who would have thought after the recent very warm spell, we could be thinking of a late bit of skiing in the Scottish mountains! Truelly amazing, it's gonna feel brass monkeys for sure.... The place is gonna resemble an Inuit village this weekend! 

    06_12_preciptype.png

    06_18_preciptype.png

    06_78_preciptype.png

    06_24_uk2mtmp.png

    06_30_uk2mtmp.png

    giphy.gif

    3843583F-AFF3-4E24-8600-46B08F7A510C.thumb.gif.874639288d74cc852342ae838631a243.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    54 minutes ago, coldie said:

     

    13968917952_171b7cf07f_b.jpg

    I dont think it's straw clutching coldie! There are plenty of positive signs for a much warmer and settled 2nd part of the month... It just depends on wether you want to look for them or not! ?

    Edited by Mattwolves
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    There's still a signal for an improvement mid month, how long it lasts is another matter but we already seem to have had plenty of summer, starting in late february and it's still almost 4 weeks away!!!??

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    Posted
  • Location: Wales 215m asl.
  • Location: Wales 215m asl.
    16 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    I dont think it's straw clutching coldie! There are plenty of positive signs for a much warmer and settled 2nd part of the month... It just deponds on wether you want to look for them or not! ?

    The same thing happened in winter matt, we all got sucked into fantasy island charts that never failed to materialise. I just have a feeling the same will happen this summer also, don't get me wrong I actually don't mind a bit of sun and warmth from time to time just as long as doesn't get past 25c with high humidity and warm sticky nights!

    Edited by coldie
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    2 minutes ago, coldie said:

    we all got sucked into fantasy island charts that never failed to materialise. 

    Don't you mean always failed to materialise ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    06Z GEFS ensembles:    image.thumb.png.6ef48fe953692ec5e9e8f0c83c00d357.pngimage.thumb.png.a2d0cf7426a36d5f777276f627d76600.png

    Still shows a nice precip spike!:oldgood:

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    Posted
  • Location: Wales 215m asl.
  • Location: Wales 215m asl.
    3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Don't you mean always failed to materialise ??

    Haha yes frosty I'm still feeling the effects from all that chasing last winter! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    26 minutes ago, coldie said:

    The same thing happened in winter matt, we all got sucked into fantasy island charts that never failed to materialise. I just have a feeling the same will happen this summer also, don't get me wrong I actually don't mind a bit of sun and warmth from time to time just as long as doesn't get past 25c with high humidity and warm sticky nights!

    I see where your coming from coldie, but the chances of very warm plumes during summer are much more likely than very cold blasts In winter. Baring in mind the summer we had last year, and the 2 very fine warm spells we have already endured this year... We should be slightly more optomistic of exciting times ahead... Well at least if you favour them kind of conditions. ?

    Edited by Mattwolves
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    Posted
  • Location: Wales 215m asl.
  • Location: Wales 215m asl.
    13 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    I see where your coming from coldie, but the chances of very warm plumes during summer are much more likely than very cold blasts In winter. Baring in mind the summer we had last year, and the 2 very fine warm spells we have already endured this year... We should be slightly more optomistic of exciting times ahead... Well at least if you favour them kind of conditions. ?

    To be honest I don't think it's more likely to have plumes in summer than cold blasts in winter( speaking from an imby point of view) I really think it depends on location and altitute when it comes to cold and snow in winter, winter 09-10, 10-11, 12-13 and 17-18 brought plenty of snow here in the valleys heck even winter just gone there were 2 snow events and one of those was in april! Plus in the past 5 years there has been 2 red warnings for snow here in south wales. Last year brought the first heatwave that I can remember since 2006! No doubt there has been warm spells in summers gone since then but last summer was truly exceptional which I can't see being repeated for a long time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    12 minutes ago, coldie said:

    To be honest I don't think it's more likely to have plumes in summer than cold blasts in winter( speaking from an imby point of view) I really think it depends on location and altitute when it comes to cold and snow in winter, winter 09-10, 10-11, 12-13 and 17-18 brought plenty of snow here in the valleys heck even winter just gone there were 2 snow events and one of those was in april! Plus in the past 5 years there has been 2 red warnings for snow here in south wales. Last year brought the first heatwave that I can remember since 2006! No doubt there has been warm spells in summers gone since then but last summer was truly exceptional which I can't see being repeated for a long time.

    Fair point, but I would say with all the extra heat being generated around the globe, hot plumes will become 2 a penny. Its impossible to make projections of how long it will be before a repeat of summer 2018,we could argue that a repeat of the cold December 2010 may not be experienced for a lifetime!! Personally I would agree, a repeat of 2018 is unlikely, but numerous Heat plumes I would say are greater than a 50% chance. One thing I will say is, it's gonna be totally unreasonable to write off summer 2019 in May! Hopefully all weather types fans will be happy these next few weeks, namely cold and unsettled, followed by much warmer settled conditions, post mid month.... I for one am excited this summer!!! ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    This morning down here was quite sunny with varying amounts of semi developed Cu. Around late morning a lot of Cs and Ac encroached before clearing again bout and hour or so ago, It shows up very well on the midday sounding and I assume was courtesy of one of those bits and pieces of fronts lingering just to west.

    2019050312.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.391ffa7515f8f1957b267f68a2fb11a6.gifchart.thumb.gif.e4461c7014365cda47e6a6e821c08788.gif

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    2 hours ago, coldie said:

    The same thing happened in winter matt, we all got sucked into fantasy island charts that never failed to materialise.

    If only that were the case, winter would have been great! ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Out to T+120, and the cold uppers have all-but lifted out of the UK...But for how long?

    image.thumb.png.5d4f376c1645c6221a85f8bcf90656bf.pngimage.thumb.png.4ee136fe1962a219433f29fba765e3ed.png 

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