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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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Looking good. Portents pending! Sunny starts, lightish winds, good convection, lovely cloudscapes, reasonable temperatures...What more could one want?:oldgood:

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes nws, good point, this month perhaps a tale of two halves! I've come across a few quotes saying the chances of a repeat of last summer or persistent heat are a little lower due to the atmosphere looking a little more chaotic, but perhaps good for very warm spells followed by thundery rinse and repeat episodes.... And that will sure to please many. 

Lets hope the 2nd of May is better then the first half!

The first half looks dreadful!

EC is better at day 10 than GFS but the Atlantic looks very active at this juncture.

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44 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

So it's a coldish bank holiday period to come, especially up North.

Set to be the coldest on record currently. 

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Just now, Polar Maritime said:

Set to be the coldest on record currently. 

Amazing, and this time last year it was the complete opposite! And this is why the British weather always makes for compulsive talking points. 

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8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Amazing, and this time last year it was the complete opposite! And this is why the British weather always makes for compulsive talking points. 

Indeed, I think it reached 29c 84f..this year it could struggle to reach 13c 55f!:shok:

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8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, I think it reached 29c 84f..this year it could struggle to reach 13c 55f!:shok:

Yeh that's about right Karl. On a positive note and like Summer Sun pointed out yesterday there is heat building to our South... I noticed in seville temps above 80 the other day, it's not going to take much to drag this heat Northwards, high pressure to the East will do for a start, I can see the 84f you just mentioned, being challenged come months end! And what a contrast this month would have been if that comes off! 10c at the beginning, and 28/29 come the end.... They used to say the phrase.... Only in America!!! Well it should be changed to.... Only in the UK! ?

Edited by Mattwolves
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Again there are signs that the azores high could start to play a bigger part as far as the uk is concerned from around mid month according to the GEFS 6z mean.?

 

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Edited by Frosty.
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Impressive stuff from the 6z FV3.. didn't know it had it in it!!!!.. it's a plume jim but not as we know it!!!..?

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4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Could do without a Greeny High though?

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Let's get the plume in first Ed.????

Edited by Frosty.
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Who would have thought after the recent very warm spell, we could be thinking of a late bit of skiing in the Scottish mountains! Truelly amazing, it's gonna feel brass monkeys for sure.... The place is gonna resemble an Inuit village this weekend! 

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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Could this be it: +15C uppers incoming!:yahoo:

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54 minutes ago, coldie said:

 

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I dont think it's straw clutching coldie! There are plenty of positive signs for a much warmer and settled 2nd part of the month... It just depends on wether you want to look for them or not! ?

Edited by Mattwolves
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There's still a signal for an improvement mid month, how long it lasts is another matter but we already seem to have had plenty of summer, starting in late february and it's still almost 4 weeks away!!!??

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16 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I dont think it's straw clutching coldie! There are plenty of positive signs for a much warmer and settled 2nd part of the month... It just deponds on wether you want to look for them or not! ?

The same thing happened in winter matt, we all got sucked into fantasy island charts that never failed to materialise. I just have a feeling the same will happen this summer also, don't get me wrong I actually don't mind a bit of sun and warmth from time to time just as long as doesn't get past 25c with high humidity and warm sticky nights!

Edited by coldie
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2 minutes ago, coldie said:

we all got sucked into fantasy island charts that never failed to materialise. 

Don't you mean always failed to materialise ??

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Don't you mean always failed to materialise ??

Haha yes frosty I'm still feeling the effects from all that chasing last winter! 

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26 minutes ago, coldie said:

The same thing happened in winter matt, we all got sucked into fantasy island charts that never failed to materialise. I just have a feeling the same will happen this summer also, don't get me wrong I actually don't mind a bit of sun and warmth from time to time just as long as doesn't get past 25c with high humidity and warm sticky nights!

I see where your coming from coldie, but the chances of very warm plumes during summer are much more likely than very cold blasts In winter. Baring in mind the summer we had last year, and the 2 very fine warm spells we have already endured this year... We should be slightly more optomistic of exciting times ahead... Well at least if you favour them kind of conditions. ?

Edited by Mattwolves
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13 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I see where your coming from coldie, but the chances of very warm plumes during summer are much more likely than very cold blasts In winter. Baring in mind the summer we had last year, and the 2 very fine warm spells we have already endured this year... We should be slightly more optomistic of exciting times ahead... Well at least if you favour them kind of conditions. ?

To be honest I don't think it's more likely to have plumes in summer than cold blasts in winter( speaking from an imby point of view) I really think it depends on location and altitute when it comes to cold and snow in winter, winter 09-10, 10-11, 12-13 and 17-18 brought plenty of snow here in the valleys heck even winter just gone there were 2 snow events and one of those was in april! Plus in the past 5 years there has been 2 red warnings for snow here in south wales. Last year brought the first heatwave that I can remember since 2006! No doubt there has been warm spells in summers gone since then but last summer was truly exceptional which I can't see being repeated for a long time.

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12 minutes ago, coldie said:

To be honest I don't think it's more likely to have plumes in summer than cold blasts in winter( speaking from an imby point of view) I really think it depends on location and altitute when it comes to cold and snow in winter, winter 09-10, 10-11, 12-13 and 17-18 brought plenty of snow here in the valleys heck even winter just gone there were 2 snow events and one of those was in april! Plus in the past 5 years there has been 2 red warnings for snow here in south wales. Last year brought the first heatwave that I can remember since 2006! No doubt there has been warm spells in summers gone since then but last summer was truly exceptional which I can't see being repeated for a long time.

Fair point, but I would say with all the extra heat being generated around the globe, hot plumes will become 2 a penny. Its impossible to make projections of how long it will be before a repeat of summer 2018,we could argue that a repeat of the cold December 2010 may not be experienced for a lifetime!! Personally I would agree, a repeat of 2018 is unlikely, but numerous Heat plumes I would say are greater than a 50% chance. One thing I will say is, it's gonna be totally unreasonable to write off summer 2019 in May! Hopefully all weather types fans will be happy these next few weeks, namely cold and unsettled, followed by much warmer settled conditions, post mid month.... I for one am excited this summer!!! ?

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This morning down here was quite sunny with varying amounts of semi developed Cu. Around late morning a lot of Cs and Ac encroached before clearing again bout and hour or so ago, It shows up very well on the midday sounding and I assume was courtesy of one of those bits and pieces of fronts lingering just to west.

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Edited by knocker
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2 hours ago, coldie said:

The same thing happened in winter matt, we all got sucked into fantasy island charts that never failed to materialise.

If only that were the case, winter would have been great! ?

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Out to T+120, and the cold uppers have all-but lifted out of the UK...But for how long?

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