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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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13 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

AH rules!?

 

I agree with this part!?..looks like the azores high / high pressure generally could become a major player into the early days of summer!?

Edited by Frosty.
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Extracts posted last week on closed thread:   The other part of the equation is the seasonal transition within the stratosphere from its winter default vortex position to its summer state. T

Greetings to you all! ? A glistening new thread for the month of May and early Summer! As we head deeper into Spring and into Summer (though I guess for some, May could be classed as a Summer

There are no apologies for self quoting a significant extract of the post the other day because its central focus becomes more primary to how NWP evolves in the remainder of this month and into the st

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Tuesday's my day for working on the farm. So far, it's been 3 warm, sunny stonkers to 1 cooler day with showers; but, if the FV3 is right ?, next week could see some very convective cloudscapes?:oldgood:

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More importantly, the farmland in these parts is crying out for rain!

Edited by Ed Stone
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As the intense upper low fills next week it leaves a shallow low in the Svalbard region which itself fills and drifts towards Franz Joseph Island with the associated trough running south in the eastern Atlantic. Upstream with the Hudson vortex lobe and Greenland ridge still in combination a strong westerly flow exiting the north eastern seaboard continues, abating to some extend as it reaches the UK  Thus portending changeable weather with  temps varying around the average but tending towards a N/S split which is often case with this sort of pattern

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Edited by knocker
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The mid / longer term GEFS 6z is overflowing with summery goodness!!!!!!!!!!!!????

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Edited by Frosty.
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The number of warm runs, within the ensemble (06Z) is definitely on the rise now:

image.thumb.png.e195696923f0e14924e6d65d6e95bc60.png 

SLP looking like plateauing at around 1020hPa: image.thumb.png.96e2e1d97b1704b6740123592adb55f4.png

And a few opportunities for rain fall, too. But, don't go out on June 9th!:shok:

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There are signs of recovery on the ukmo 12h from around T+120 hours as the azores ridge builds in cutting off the cool unsettled NW'ly / N'ly flow and temperatures start to recover from T+144 hours further south by southwest but there looks like being an unseasonably cool disturbed spell early to next midweek but the north, more especially the far north bears the brunt of it.

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Edited by Frosty.
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The Gem 12z also shows a much cooler more unsettled spell early next week but it's mainly northern uk which gets the worst of it and then there's a remarkable transformation from the south to high pressure and much warmer conditions, especially for southern uk.?

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The FV3 12z has other ideas but for a while it does become more settled and warmer under high pressure, especially further south.

Ed beat me to it, not that it's a race or anything!!?

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Edited by Frosty.
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According to the gfs next weds will be wet and quite windy day as a waving front tracks east across the country And then overnight and through Thursday the surface wind veers northerly and a front tracks down the country as a low tracks down the North Sea associated with the upper trough moving south, courtesy of the subtropical high amplifying in the west  Remaining cold on Friday as everything shifts a tad east

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FV3 very promising at T168 - T240:

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In view of posts above should emphasise that output after T240 (and probably a little before) is just  random noise!

A clear move rather towards a warm settled spell on the 12s as others have also posted.  Summer is a week away!

Edited by Mike Poole
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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

At least it's a SW'ly, will feel okay, not the usual horrible NE'lys normal for May/June

Indeed, nothing to fret about?..very good signs from the 12z models beyond the cooler unsettled interlude during the first half of next week. 

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The GEFS 12z mean morphs into a fantastic run following the cooler unsettled phase early to mid next week..increasingly summery from around day 8 onwards with high pressure / strong ridging.

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Edited by Frosty.
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The GEFS mean has high pressure over the UK at T192, and afterwards, the signal gets diluted, yes, as uncertainty increases, but looks to me broadly supportive of continued influence to the UK from the Azores ridge.  

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Edit, Karl beat me to it, but his take is similar to mine!

Edited by Mike Poole
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GFS 12z still looking like a dogs dinner heading into final days of May and into starting days of Summer, LP to the East and HP to the West with the UK once more sat in the path of nasty northerlies. Following that the Azores takes a punch and squeezes a ridge of summer through for at least 5 days, temps locally around the mid 20s for most but that's just me clutching straws. We'll see.

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