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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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The controlling feature for the rest of next week is the movement of the upper trough to the north so continuing unsettled but some light at the end of the tunnel by Saturday as the subtropical high ridges in

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9217600.thumb.png.600341e7da513d2d0129eb8015a8b837.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9390400.thumb.png.3a96077763de9eb638c5208f26d89484.png

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A quick glance at forecast sounding indicates the potential for some hefty showers this PM

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Some much needed rainfall totals for parts over the next week.

1367774016_viewimage-2019-05-24T075321_657.thumb.png.6028b8cb15840c1f2e182c86ade6a9c1.png

 

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The ecm quite quickly moves the upper trough away to the east after the middle of next week but further systems track east around the subtropical high so remaining unsettled with showers, some longer periods of rain and sunny periods

t156.thumb.png.4d9d3e11a9888438aeee8c944b4b6fa2.pngt204.thumb.png.b65444f38c74c80d94a6f7713514c6cd.png

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ECM looking promising into next weekend again this morning....not strong high pressure domination per se, but enough of an influence to drag some fairly warm air up.

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The 00Z ends (again) on a very promising note and, more importantly, would even deliver some useful rainfall, next week:

image.thumb.png.5dd4fabb395e0a17347651a1171d75f1.pngimage.thumb.png.2968a8ead592f83d760c4bf478d2b38f.png 

 

The FV3 follows a very broadly similar evolution, though the details (at D16) are all-but meaningless:

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Of much more relevance, at least around here, is the prospect of useful rain:

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EC mean at 192 looks OK..

image.thumb.png.af839db024db7b8c25642dc8fc2c0369.png

But by day 10 the blocking high to the NW is forcing the trough towards our shores..

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So, on the face of it, things look like settling down after an unsettled week but my concern would be the heights to the NW look set to persist, and while that is the case we will always be exposed to unwelcome green snotty troughs..

 

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The GEFS  00z mean strongly suggests the early days of this meteorological summery will become very summery indeed!!!!!!!!!!!👍🌞

GFSAVGEU00_348_2.png

GFSAVGEU00_348_1.png

GFSAVGEU00_384_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The GEFS  00z mean strongly suggests the early days of this meteorological summery will become very summery indeed!!!!!!!!!!!👍🌞

GFSAVGEU00_348_2.png

GFSAVGEU00_348_1.png

GFSAVGEU00_384_1.png

GEFS mean looks better than EC for sure longer term.

Interesting few days coming up for the early June pattern.. 🙂

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Sorry that disappoints you markyo, most want a summer having not had a winter!!..the models are looking promising beyond the cooler showery blip early next week.The GEFS has been looking good longer term for a while now.👍

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06Z promises some much-needed (even if some folks don't seem to know it?) rainfall, sometime next week:

image.thumb.png.29530658080c8729a25363618e04891f.pngimage.thumb.png.f67822e13d55aed58ac19973e5030f7e.png 

We have the entire summer left, for sunbathing!:oldgrin:

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Putting the unsettled conditions to come aside for a second and just to take a peak at CFS for the 1st week in June or so, and the 0z is looking very promising this morning, I hope it's on to something. It also shows the easing back off heights over Greenland. 

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Wow that cfs run is a lot better than yesterday!!..good news 👍

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ECM clusters looking reasonable today:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052400_240.ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052400_300.ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052400_360.

More typical UK weather going by these, with the more unsettled weather closer to the NW and better weather towards the SE.

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GFS is also looking good at T+234 -- I think Dumbo's life-expectancy might be short!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.26e9f1d45badd7082b91d1c706b421c6.png

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A stonking end to the 06Z!:yahoo:Fingers crossed, it's in the right ballpark?🤞

image.thumb.png.9beaaec650e5be1bac9d37fcb33c0367.pngimage.thumb.png.5f7cc5dc36d631ca2cac56fcca1dc95a.png 

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FV3 6z looks good later!🌞..great model😜

GFSPARAEU06_300_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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21 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

h500slp.thumb.png.f47b3f89b53a72057b56de5a29bd5f60.png

........ there are no words

I can think of a few, but they ain't gonna be postable... Tbh that's so unlikely to come off, that literally is like GFS was playing pin the tail on the donkey. 

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

FV3 6z looks good later!🌞..great model😜

GFSPARAEU06_300_1.png

You took the words right out of my mouth, Karl::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.1f83f95fbbed9c8b936964ce37606fa6.pngimage.thumb.png.e23dde1a786007c86f265a8c72507e9f.png 

IMO, it's the area occupied by warm air that counts -- the details will have to wait...?

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

You took the words right out of my mouth, Karl::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.1f83f95fbbed9c8b936964ce37606fa6.pngimage.thumb.png.e23dde1a786007c86f265a8c72507e9f.png 

IMO, it's the area occupied by warm air that counts -- the details will have to wait...?

Indeed, I don't mind an easterly now the continent is heating up..less to fret about!👍😜

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, I don't mind an easterly now the continent is heating up..less to fret about!👍😜

Yuk! Too much imported continental filthy air with a Summer easterly. AH rules!😎

May itself down here has been pretty good. Warm and sunny last 5/6 days; early-mid May was warm and sunny as well. Been a typical May here; defo NOT a bad one, for sure.

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