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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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Posted (edited)

The NH 500mb profile and the North Atlantic surface analysis for midnight

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8666800.thumb.png.c57cada11a37ca78b9d2ec46bec2a538.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.8e6f5c4e9433db528f9d1ae393e01aa0.gif

The occlusion wrapped around the low in the north east will continue to effect the far north of Scotland today although initially just cloudy with perhaps the odd spot of drizzle, But in it's death throes the rain may come back later in the afternoon. Elsewhere patchy cloud, mainly in the west, but during the day there will be a fair bit of sunshine and it will be quite warm, particularly in the south east. And showers will start to pop up by late morning and these could become quite frequent and heavy, with thunder thrown in, in eastern Wales and central southern England

PPVE89.thumb.gif.2d7954a3fa05d9624246b449bf851737.gif649799758_maxfr.thumb.png.0c98456e5bf684486fe1a05c9b1eb4d1.pngps_reflec_d02_17.thumb.png.7bf343bcd4fd97bf059732ffca5080f9.pngps_reflec_d02_20.thumb.png.631fbcc3c47ed10d6c8212b74328bf2f.pngps_reflec_d02_24.thumb.png.aea4bcfb47704bd7d88d8aa18e1197a0.png

Through the evening the showers will die out, they may persist for a time in the far south courtesy of the little occlusion in the Channel, and the rain in the north will again give way to just cloud. So generally a fairly clear night but by dawn cloud and some rain will effect N. Ireland as the warm front edges in from the west

PPVG89.thumb.gif.7768bfdecb9933d359de48e0a378dc96.gifp06.thumb.png.6abe16b8c5ed957af7e434d4e42a6eea.png

The warm front and rain will continue to track ESE through Saturday effecting most regions, but particularly the north of England and Scotland, apart from the south east and south, although some showers may pop up here, courtesy of the stray trough.. All of this results in quite a NW/SE temp contrast.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.c28c07f1ac631b76913f4751052b2d9f.gif2mtemp_d02_44.thumb.png.08b178cf099b1128772bd433e4c46080.pngr09.thumb.png.8192d40e484845c1bc52f34e4685dc78.pngr12.thumb.png.17418a3d615959dc6f3f68bb512a4233.pngr15.thumb.png.37b161ff74c9fb1a8a09fd2c94656c40.pngr18.thumb.png.6736173ba85fad4508853f4edf133994.png

Saturday night and trough Sunday sees the start of the transition into a cooler and potential unstable regime as the upper troughs to the west and north east sort themselves out. The upshot of all this on the surface is that by midday Sunday the warm front is well clear with the cold front tracking south east down the country leaving the waving occlusion to trail all the way back south of Greenland. Ergo the rain belt will track south east clearing to showers behind the front, except possible over northern Scotland. It will also introduce cooler air in it's wake

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-8872000.thumb.png.cca60babf9ea88d60445ddb1d36dd788.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.8da5bd9c8f4d03c4695841943ed883ac.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.30ab6d6be05754514f59c84acd9de008.gif

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By Monday the two troughs have merged with the main center to the north resulting in a quite complex area of low pressure over the UK with a center of 998mb over Scotland and troughs and fronts within the general circulation. A whole gamut of weather involved here from heavy showers with thunder in the mix to some longer periods of rain. And quite windy to boot. Temps a little below average

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-8958400.thumb.png.e813325da342a6771ee4dab7155fae4c.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.076695e0b0fa6f638c463af89b3b3a27.gif194705543_maxmon.thumb.png.06aeb3b54a943f0f7e557391f01b9528.png

By Tuesday the low centered over the UK has moved away south east leaving the country in a fresh northerly that could even reach gale force in some coastal regions. Within this potentially unstable environment frequent showers will pop up with again the risk of thunder, and even longer periods of rain as the showers coalesce, courtesy of troughs within the circulation

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9066400.thumb.png.2dbef88d421865c3b2bd5bd15d263021.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.2c59fb068e06ad7f759b3606a0511f0c.gif348747680_maxtues.thumb.png.ef9264f098bc3e3ec3ed3f07eac416f6.png

Edited by knocker

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The controlling feature for the rest of next week is the movement of the upper trough to the north so continuing unsettled but some light at the end of the tunnel by Saturday as the subtropical high ridges in

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9217600.thumb.png.600341e7da513d2d0129eb8015a8b837.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9390400.thumb.png.3a96077763de9eb638c5208f26d89484.png

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A quick glance at forecast sounding indicates the potential for some hefty showers this PM

sounding.thumb.png.f9a581737b76fdc89f2f39584b79ca41.png

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Some much needed rainfall totals for parts over the next week.

1367774016_viewimage-2019-05-24T075321_657.thumb.png.6028b8cb15840c1f2e182c86ade6a9c1.png

 

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The ecm quite quickly moves the upper trough away to the east after the middle of next week but further systems track east around the subtropical high so remaining unsettled with showers, some longer periods of rain and sunny periods

t156.thumb.png.4d9d3e11a9888438aeee8c944b4b6fa2.pngt204.thumb.png.b65444f38c74c80d94a6f7713514c6cd.png

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ECM looking promising into next weekend again this morning....not strong high pressure domination per se, but enough of an influence to drag some fairly warm air up.

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The 00Z ends (again) on a very promising note and, more importantly, would even deliver some useful rainfall, next week:

image.thumb.png.5dd4fabb395e0a17347651a1171d75f1.pngimage.thumb.png.2968a8ead592f83d760c4bf478d2b38f.png 

 

The FV3 follows a very broadly similar evolution, though the details (at D16) are all-but meaningless:

image.thumb.png.a1f903f0320f8dc434bd585a9f8b761d.pngimage.thumb.png.ec1572e2a7291d5f0556fec100737f47.png

 

Of much more relevance, at least around here, is the prospect of useful rain:

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EC mean at 192 looks OK..

image.thumb.png.af839db024db7b8c25642dc8fc2c0369.png

But by day 10 the blocking high to the NW is forcing the trough towards our shores..

image.thumb.png.d9d38e95fffe6476ec166f58afb3e673.png

So, on the face of it, things look like settling down after an unsettled week but my concern would be the heights to the NW look set to persist, and while that is the case we will always be exposed to unwelcome green snotty troughs..

 

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Posted (edited)

The GEFS  00z mean strongly suggests the early days of this meteorological summery will become very summery indeed!!!!!!!!!!!👍🌞

GFSAVGEU00_348_2.png

GFSAVGEU00_348_1.png

GFSAVGEU00_384_1.png

Edited by Frosty.

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7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The GEFS  00z mean strongly suggests the early days of this meteorological summery will become very summery indeed!!!!!!!!!!!👍🌞

GFSAVGEU00_348_2.png

GFSAVGEU00_348_1.png

GFSAVGEU00_384_1.png

GEFS mean looks better than EC for sure longer term.

Interesting few days coming up for the early June pattern.. 🙂

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Sorry that disappoints you markyo, most want a summer having not had a winter!!..the models are looking promising beyond the cooler showery blip early next week.The GEFS has been looking good longer term for a while now.👍

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06Z promises some much-needed (even if some folks don't seem to know it?) rainfall, sometime next week:

image.thumb.png.29530658080c8729a25363618e04891f.pngimage.thumb.png.f67822e13d55aed58ac19973e5030f7e.png 

We have the entire summer left, for sunbathing!:oldgrin:

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Putting the unsettled conditions to come aside for a second and just to take a peak at CFS for the 1st week in June or so, and the 0z is looking very promising this morning, I hope it's on to something. It also shows the easing back off heights over Greenland. 

cfs-0-282.png

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Wow that cfs run is a lot better than yesterday!!..good news 👍

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ECM clusters looking reasonable today:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052400_240.ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052400_300.ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052400_360.

More typical UK weather going by these, with the more unsettled weather closer to the NW and better weather towards the SE.

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GFS is also looking good at T+234 -- I think Dumbo's life-expectancy might be short!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.26e9f1d45badd7082b91d1c706b421c6.png

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A stonking end to the 06Z!:yahoo:Fingers crossed, it's in the right ballpark?🤞

image.thumb.png.9beaaec650e5be1bac9d37fcb33c0367.pngimage.thumb.png.5f7cc5dc36d631ca2cac56fcca1dc95a.png 

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Posted (edited)

FV3 6z looks good later!🌞..great model😜

GFSPARAEU06_300_1.png

Edited by Frosty.

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21 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

h500slp.thumb.png.f47b3f89b53a72057b56de5a29bd5f60.png

........ there are no words

I can think of a few, but they ain't gonna be postable... Tbh that's so unlikely to come off, that literally is like GFS was playing pin the tail on the donkey. 

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

FV3 6z looks good later!🌞..great model😜

GFSPARAEU06_300_1.png

You took the words right out of my mouth, Karl::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.1f83f95fbbed9c8b936964ce37606fa6.pngimage.thumb.png.e23dde1a786007c86f265a8c72507e9f.png 

IMO, it's the area occupied by warm air that counts -- the details will have to wait...?

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

You took the words right out of my mouth, Karl::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.1f83f95fbbed9c8b936964ce37606fa6.pngimage.thumb.png.e23dde1a786007c86f265a8c72507e9f.png 

IMO, it's the area occupied by warm air that counts -- the details will have to wait...?

Indeed, I don't mind an easterly now the continent is heating up..less to fret about!👍😜

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, I don't mind an easterly now the continent is heating up..less to fret about!👍😜

Yuk! Too much imported continental filthy air with a Summer easterly. AH rules!😎

May itself down here has been pretty good. Warm and sunny last 5/6 days; early-mid May was warm and sunny as well. Been a typical May here; defo NOT a bad one, for sure.

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