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Rain was almost guaranteed at some stage this weekend in NE England it is after all Radio 1's Big Weekend in the Boro 

In true music festival style it looks like it could turn into a mud bath Friday at least looks decent

ukprec.thumb.png.43a0205453e0e52f28833ce5dbf723fc.png396847990_ukprec(2).thumb.png.6e13e303c349aeb91bd2c65a57ce7c3d.png

367668949_ukprec(1).thumb.png.ab0e55073800176dddfd75f36086bfa3.pngukprec.thumb.png.d69f037690d2b4f41dfd7e9b8cf81d06.png

726921577_ukprec(2).thumb.png.bb559e4b0296d004fd8defaa718bff5f.png34442454_ukprec(1).thumb.png.8d59a36a0fe640381f4b18e74bed9502.png

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9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The 12Z ensembles have arrived, and look very so-so::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.986db8b97923332e1f291d688ce35eab.pngimage.thumb.png.b56481d8a500240bb7d3e60c5c7e179a.png                                                                                 image.thumb.png.7e85f7c7a337e05e10c7ec1449a32650.png 

Whereas the mid / longer term GEFS 12z mean looks so-good😜

GFSAVGEU12_222_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_246_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_294_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_318_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_342_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_360_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_384_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_384_2.png

giphy (2).gif

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Posted (edited)

What I enjoyed most about the Ecm 12z was watching that big green blob to the east get cut off from its main supply and gradually get crushed to oblivion over a couple of days!!👍

192_mslp500.png

216_mslp500 (1).png

240_mslp500 (2).png

Edited by Frosty.

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Following on from previous post, ECM T240, here on NH and Europe view:

image.thumb.jpg.563caf17220faa292fba365ca49decb1.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.d12658c5cc690e6de2259ae51cf8c5e0.jpg

The warm up is evident, but with the potential for a reloading system of high pressures from the Azores.  Start of summer?  On time too.

 

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For the last half of the run the ecm has the upper trough negatively aligned to the north east which facilitates the return of a fairly strong NW flow over the UK thus unsettled with temps below average

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9476800.thumb.png.328ba081a795f32942760b3f1a877b14.pngecmwf-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-9476800.thumb.png.98d6eefe4f9bf22193a9e303a2f227c9.png

 

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8 minutes ago, knocker said:

For the last half of the run the ecm has the upper trough negatively aligned to the north east which facilitates the return of a fairly strong NW flow over the UK thus unsettled with temps below average

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9476800.thumb.png.328ba081a795f32942760b3f1a877b14.pngecmwf-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-9476800.thumb.png.98d6eefe4f9bf22193a9e303a2f227c9.png

 

This average of days 5-10 of the ECM looks misleading to me, as an indicator of future direction, given that the period, according to the model, includes a pattern change.   And also, I acknowledge, that some posters like me are musing on evolutions on the 10 day timescale, rather than 5 days when the broad pattern looks pretty clear.

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Ecm to me looks like an improving picture by the later frames, later next week high pressure should hopefully begin to get a foothold! But I'm sitting on fence has regards to temps, because the operational has fallen sharply in line with the mean compared to this morning, this implies we could still be troubled with coolish air. 

ECM1-216.gif

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-240.gif

graphe_ens3.png

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ECM 12z mean, at T192 (when I think things start to change) and T240:

image.thumb.jpg.7a3a5d7bf08d9687afe79ea3e16e342e.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.00b5992b932d84b116fd3928b56f44db.jpg

Obviously a range possibilities in that mean, but pressure rising in the south at least, a suggestion of improving summer weather, when coupled with other output and background signals.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

This average of days 5-10 of the ECM looks misleading to me, as an indicator of future direction, given that the period, according to the model, includes a pattern change.   And also, I acknowledge, that some posters like me are musing on evolutions on the 10 day timescale, rather than 5 days when the broad pattern looks pretty clear.

I wasn't using it as a guide to the future evolution, merely as an indicator as to this evening's det run output. I shall desist in future. And to say this is misleading when you, and others, continually use day ten as a guide to the future kills irony stone dead.

And this evening's EPS mean 7-12

index.thumb.png.e05d88437399ca32535606ff237c9071.png

Edited by knocker

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Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a gradual improvement later with the trough clearing away to the NE and filling and at the same time the azores ridge edging closer..it would have been nice to see further ahead because I have a feeling that high pressure would eventually fill the void..👍

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a gradual improvement later with the trough clearing away to the NE and filling and at the same time the azores ridge edging closer..it would have been nice to see further ahead because I have a feeling that high pressure would eventually fill the void..👍

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

That's the plan hopefully Karl but I feel Mr high pressure is still being a pain in the but over Greenland 👍

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Good Evening Folks! Across the  12z suite from ecm and gfs shows nothing like last year..! Rain showers and sunshine sum it up as we go into the first meteorological month of June😎

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, knocker said:

I wasn't using it as a guide to the future evolution, merely as an indicator as to this evening's det run output. I shall desist in future. And to say this is misleading when you, and others, continually use day ten as a guide to the future kills irony stone dead.

Apologies that I misinterpreted your post, Malcolm.  I can't speak for others, but I have a strong professional interest in uncertainty, in an area not related to weather, and so in this hobby I am very much interested in the period beyond the accepted reliable.  We are not all on here for the same thing, and that diversity should be a good thing.  

Mind you, I should point out things can only die once, you have posted about the death of irony many times 😁

Edited by Mike Poole

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 Excuse me but we have not long celebrated Easter.

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I prefer to base my longer-term expectations upon the teleconnections, and hope that, at some point in time, the tail-ends of the short-range models will come into line with what the ENSO, MJO and such suggest...Though, run-to-run and model-model variances being what they are, such an approach will never be entirely straightforward. It might even be cobblers!

Like one of these, perhaps: image.thumb.png.ca577c09a19d532fd23b3eff8d46ff5f.png

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6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I prefer to base my longer-term expectations upon the teleconnections, and hope that, at some point in time, the tail-ends of the short-range models will come into line with what the ENSO, MJO and such suggest...Though, run-to-run and model-model variances being what they are, such an approach will never be entirely straightforward. It might even be cobblers!

Like one of these, perhaps: image.thumb.png.ca577c09a19d532fd23b3eff8d46ff5f.png

Bloomin hell for a moment there Pete I thought you had swallowed wickopedia!! 😜

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I get your drift DRL I did agree with you regarding the overuse of gifs and tbh I've only been throwing the occasional one in with some of the charts I post. I think you should start using the hard rule of... 3 strikes and you're out!!! That's me gone then... But seriously fair points have been made by you and yes I thought overall there has been some decent model discussions today.... Thanks for the heads up.. 👍

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Posted (edited)

Here's a quick look at some of the main model runs at 180hrs....make up your own minds folks... 

That's not far off cross model agreement. 

navgem-0-180.png

J180-21.gif

gem-0-180.png

icon-0-180.png

gfs-0-180.png

gfs-0-180 (1).png

ECM1-192.gif

Edited by Mattwolves

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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

I prefer to base my longer-term expectations upon the teleconnections, and hope that, at some point in time, the tail-ends of the short-range models will come into line with what the ENSO, MJO and such suggest...Though, run-to-run and model-model variances being what they are, such an approach will never be entirely straightforward. It might even be cobblers!

Like one of these, perhaps: image.thumb.png.ca577c09a19d532fd23b3eff8d46ff5f.png

I assume you can yell everyone what that formula is?

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Posted (edited)

ICON 18z cutting across all shortcuts and it is going for Azores ridge into UK shortly after T120:

image.thumb.jpg.5464120c770d27a2e25f754b1431dc49.jpg

JMA T192:

image.thumb.jpg.77462a1e93772e3c5d93b3accd73dd63.jpg

Is the likely scenario for summer to come to the UK quicker than recent forecasts are showing?   I can see us being in a re-load Azores high situation by the end of next week....

Edited by Mike Poole

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18z GFS a bit touch and go if summer starts , we really are getting to the stage where 25c+ should be cropping up on maps but the blues and greens are just not letting go of the 15-17c range. Just yet anyway 

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3 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Don’t mean to be old, flakey, log... but a number of posts in here have been descending more into general chit chat, rather than adding much to the discussion. 

Nothing wrong with a harmless bit of fun, including the use of the odd Meme/GIF here and there (though they seem to have been getting a bit much again). However, I feel as though their needs to be somewhat more focus from some about the models, rather than just general one or two-liner posts. The same applies when someone just posts a chart.

Sorry to be a pain in the bum and to seem uptight; I appreciate it’s not always that easy to find the right balance between fun/banter and general model analysis. Though posts will start getting thrown into our big, shiny, silvery, bin, if they become too bantery/Meme-ish/unfocused on the models. I think it’s worth asking yourself while you’re typing out your post and are thinking of submitting it, “does my post contribute to the model discussion? is it insulting? do I need to delete/change/add to the post?” Then when you’re sure it’s fine, go ahead and submit.

Again, a bit of banter and humour is fine to keep the thread light-hearted. But it has been overdone. Despite that, I think it’s also fair to say this recent page, apart from a few odd posts, is more of an example of quality model discussion and is what we need to see more of!

Thanks guys! 

You sir are a great moderator, if I may say so myself. Always upbeat and fair when sanctions are necessary. Just thought I'd say! 

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16 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

You sir are a great moderator, if I may say so myself. Always upbeat and fair when sanctions are necessary. Just thought I'd say! 

Ar thank you! Sometimes feel I can be a little harsh and have stroppy moments (guess a lot of us do at times lol), but that’s very nice of you to say, Crew! 🙂

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