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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

ECM been hinting at improvements for the last couple of days, and again today the 0z showing settled and much warmer conditions by later next week. Word of  caution though, the operational run really did go off on one regarding temps. 

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Ah - that was always my worry....ECM OP miles outside the rest of the pack. We could look optimistically and say its a trend setter i guess!

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Decent set of GFS 6z, brief miserable spell then the Azores ridging in.

Here's hoping.

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Lovely jubilee Karl, the garbage can be taken out with the trash tonight. Fab charts, keep em coming 😉👍

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h500slp.thumb.png.1ccfdac0724d7ddae50461d326c687d0.pngiN

Interesting a low forming over Spain due to cooler air moving south.  - good ingredients there

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1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

interesting charts, especially the one for june 1st suggesting colder then average.

may i ask, what is your opinion of the few runs/models that suggest it hotting up as we enter june? i see the jem is going for it, a few gfs runs have too, plus these ecm charts.. do you think theres any traction to these 'heatwave' suggestions?

 

 

 

Not on the indicators I use mushy and the ext EPS certainly isn't although it does warm a tad by the end And the GEFS is only around average

heat.thumb.png.bc061869f8134ae23e45076e439b13c2.pnggfs-europe_wide-t2m_c_anom_5day-9887200.thumb.png.79a30ca4bb85d41cafeeb75dc6f8a71d.png

 

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Posted (edited)

There's some fabulous potential further into June on the GEFS 6z..so, there are good signs, better than yesterday even..hope it continues!!👍

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Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, knocker said:

Not on the indicators I use mushy and the ext EPS certainly isn't although it does warm a tad by the end And the GEFS is only around average

heat.thumb.png.bc061869f8134ae23e45076e439b13c2.pnggfs-europe_wide-t2m_c_anom_5day-9887200.thumb.png.79a30ca4bb85d41cafeeb75dc6f8a71d.png

 

thanks..

as you know, theres nothing (yet) on my favoured noaa anomaly charts either to suggest high pressure dominance. these charts would need to change pretty drastically in order to support the more progressive high pressure runs some models are suggesting. tbh id have thought tonights runs might build pressure to our south a tad. however i wouldnt be surprised if systems that squeeze through between that azores and greenland highs dont simply feed into the northern trough over the north north sea, boosting it. (a repeat next weekend of whats expected sunday/monday).

 

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Edited by mushymanrob

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06Z GEFS ensembles are still on the up, though hardly stonkerific::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.b19b9ec38a87124b31373faaa717e705.pngimage.thumb.png.48c6b7e02160a9b1b5beb3192ed2be30.png 

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

06Z GEFS ensembles are still on the up, though hardly stonkerific::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.b19b9ec38a87124b31373faaa717e705.pngimage.thumb.png.48c6b7e02160a9b1b5beb3192ed2be30.png 

Aye Ed but there is some stonkerific potential in there😜

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OK folks icon 12z clearly showing the more unsettled and cooler conditions for a few days anyway. By day 6 perhaps some signs of high pressure building in from the SW, and as you can see warmer upper air temps not to far behind.... Fingers crossed and all that.. 

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The ukmo 12h shows the improvement coming into range @ T+144 hours with the trough departing to the NE and the azores ridge / high arriving!👍

UW144-21.gif

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oh did I just jinx it with my post earlier, it looks like I do 😂. I hope the charts right now keep on coming 😁

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Posted (edited)

Great image from the geostationary of the occlusions wrapped around the low and the little wave west of Ireland

geo.thumb.JPG.0234954ae5c8b24e9ee3cefce1c995b5.JPGPPVA89.thumb.gif.7f688b8f0587633b40252f1b0e492e70.gif

Edited by knocker

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Posted (edited)

oooooo..  i'm liking the Gem 12z😍

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Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)

GFS 12Z has another go at producing some much-needed meaningful rainfall, for East Anglia:

image.thumb.png.60edffb8fdb32224f7a1e3f424f7db0a.pngimage.thumb.png.fff825eab11521613b828e7574908508.png 

image.thumb.png.a962e631e68211e6561e0531e20f3396.pngimage.thumb.png.eed20fbb2a3177f9a6ab87c163d456c7.png

Edited by Ed Stone

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12Z might have ended well, were it not for one horrible piece of snot!

image.thumb.png.c6b89fb56881381c1aa542a7ac1cc495.pngimage.thumb.png.54a51e4af04ccebaf7a0c64011bc689a.png 

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I feel we would be very unlucky to get a run like the Gfs 12z operational where there are times in low res when high pressure is all around the uk but with troughs managing reach us with ease..surely not!!💩😁 

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Posted (edited)

Not to stressed guys, yes the 12z seems to have us surrounded by high pressure but not quite close enough to kill off some showery interludes, the azores high seems to have built to the West of us here, it's close enough to bring plenty of fine conditions but not quite in the correct place for major warming. Let's see where the ECM goes tonight, and to see if the operational had actually gone off on one. 

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Edited by Mattwolves

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Posted (edited)

I think I will be taking more notice of the mean than the operational which is usually the best policy anyway but especially when the op is meh!.😜

Edited by Frosty.

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The gfs gas adjusted it's positioning of the upper low next week so that it stays to the NE but it then amplifies the subtropical high too far west so that the corresponding movement of the low south drops colder air over the UK. Of course this will be subject to change.

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9206800.thumb.png.86dbbeedf4c7c366cc1f320c44813d07.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9347200.thumb.png.db1974be68b0187c98f389520b5b8b64.png

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It doesn't happen often but the 12z FV3 is a better run than the Gfs  operational, especially for the south..beyond the cooler unsettled outbreak early next week that is!!

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It sure took a while but, in the end, the boy done good -- we've avoided a greenwash!:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.ca2c343712e1d36b74509fbc5757685e.pngimage.thumb.png.3e8dd89f7ef280ea03e61a8808f49299.png 

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Posted (edited)

The 12Z ensembles have arrived, and look very so-so::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.986db8b97923332e1f291d688ce35eab.pngimage.thumb.png.b56481d8a500240bb7d3e60c5c7e179a.png                                                                                 image.thumb.png.7e85f7c7a337e05e10c7ec1449a32650.png 

Edited by Ed Stone

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