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I think this weather-forecasting malarkey would be a whole lot more straightforward were it not for seasonal flies-in-the-ointment: misplaced SSWs, in Winter/early Spring; Atlantic hurricanes, in late Summer/Autumn, come to mind?:oldgrin:

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

GFS and ECM offer very little into next week, Greenland high linking with Azores High. A late springtime recipe for a dogs dinner.

I wish for once you could show just a tad of optimism. I agree that things look largely disappointing through bank holiday and next mid week, but there are some signs from a few of the models of an improvement later next week, that's unless you come from Jon o groats, and in that case,i take it all back... 

Edited by Mattwolves

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7 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I think this weather-forecasting malarkey would be a whole lot more straightforward were it not for seasonal flies-in-the-ointment: misplaced SSWs, in Winter/early Spring; Atlantic hurricanes, in late Summer/Autumn, come to mind?:oldgrin:

this  time last year  was nearly  31  c  alas  looking  at  the maps  for next week north norfoik were im heading is looking  more like winter  this year no needs for shorts up there this year,  even the fantasy charts are  not  good  just  blame  it on brexit!!!

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Posted (edited)

The NH 500mb profile and the North Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UTC WV sat image

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8569600.thumb.png.581c8851069f33668c55df7f5b55cb44.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.79aa93a6e8a88bf599e62fca7c590a4f.gifWV.thumb.JPG.499d2eb5c682c00fcb82d401e91f53ab.JPG

There is a fair bit of cloud around this morning but this will probably clear in many areas in England and where it does it will be quite warm. The temp range from NW Scotland to SE England today is quite striking. But it will linger in places and there could even be some patchy rain in N Ireland and northern parts of England. But the far north of Scotland will continue to be effected by the fronts wrapped around the low over southern Norway so rain here which will ease as the day progresses, albeit remaining quite windy. It is worth noting the trough dominating the western Atlantic and the myriad of associated surface fronts, some edging quite close west of Ireland

PPVE89.thumb.gif.730b1d15c9c1fb50ec6b8b1c22add065.gif1003343180_maxth.thumb.png.b1f1d2c32858e4f8eef883d5e9e168b0.pngps_1hrprecip_d02_15.thumb.png.3a6f8ce88e054c1291cb1ac34b4135d9.pngps_1hrprecip_d02_18.thumb.png.641504577627a468ada6d31149fedea6.pngps_1hrprecip_d02_21.thumb.png.8031291a591871a3ee9cdc834e128677.pngps_1hrprecip_d02_24.thumb.png.8c5eaab65fbd1c239178d8002a893bff.png

Little change overnight. It will remain cloudy and windy over the far north and relatively clear elsewhere although it may become cloudy in western regions by dawn as the aforementioned fronts take closer order.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.47200cebcc10ad591558eda445651944.gif

The weakening occlusions continue to keep the cloud over the far north on Friday although the rain probably now confined to the north east. Elsewhere generally another sunny day but still more cloud in the west and some showers popping up over south Wales and central southern England during the afternoon. Temps down a shade on today

PPVI89.thumb.gif.757ba1e763b1d71f99dc010ad96074eb.gif1917806631_maxfr.thumb.png.fd3d34ceab1a09621800f4fbb8970a1f.pngp14.thumb.png.1c9c5476a90867aa701c660212fb0770.png

Over friday night and through Saturday the original fronts tend to fizzle out and the follow up system is still to the west so although there will be some cloud around Saturday will be a dry and quite warm day although the temps a little under average in N. Ireland and the north of Scotland

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.ad189311fec13696e1685c31293e6fcf.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.745b1543c53b508fcfef73c10148fe2b.gif1699139527_maxsat.thumb.png.49a90ce661ca53745bf7246b6e7fa292.png

The warm front of the system mentioned above tracks north east over Saturday night bringing some rain to N. Ireland and Scotland but quickly clears into the North Sea  But the cold front and the waves forming on the occlusion are more of a problem and they bring more general rain and showery conditions on Sunday, with a strengthening wind, as they track south east through. Colder air follows in the wake of the front

PPVM89.thumb.gif.657ea5cf177ed90c62f37c4bc5f90003.gif1136649749_sun1.thumb.png.d641011f16d3e6a4d34def3f9bcc83fc.png853907786_sun2.thumb.png.accdb9ec0bae6f1722aa0992f912f498.png

1173263155_sunmax.thumb.png.5303aa0c15f3a5fac6d66015bf070724.png

The cold front is well clear by Monday leaving the country in a blustery north westerly wind and the possibility of frequent showers and longer periods of rain. These will be concentrated more in the north where the occlusion is still hanging around and the odd trough is embedded in the flow, Generally a much colder day.

PPVO89.thumb.gif.cc12d3cf37ffe129e29a66a518532c37.gif1920083816_mazmon.thumb.png.d32c64cc777c8b6dfb3ffadfb9a3bcff.png

 

 

Edited by knocker

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We have now reached the point where the upper low to the north develops and swings down over the UK. At this stage there is little point in attempting detail IMO so just the evolution of the NH pattern and the five day temp because whichever way you hack it this will introduce colder air.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-9001600.thumb.png.64742747303f31ab7d0da36240e6f5bf.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-9088000.thumb.png.c7ada5a159590ce77499ccd82364cec4.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-9174400.thumb.png.1b7ead7aec0c257bdecb4848e05a4f75.png

gfs-europe_wide-t2m_f_anom_5day-9347200.thumb.png.5141c9c6689a6c1def6bb6e7ca963432.png

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Looking at the Gfs 00z operational there's a chance of snow on the hills / mountains of scotland for a time next week with a very cool unsettled spell but it's noticeable how the areas of green snot diminish as we go through early June and there is some fine and warm weather with high pressure following the unpleasant spell.👍

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Posted (edited)

Looking at the longer term GEFS 00z there's a much better chance of high pressure building in during early June!👍😜

14_330_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Not the greatest of 00Z runs, it has to be said; there's always room for optimism, however::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.e0d3430ed0f831cc772e78fbb258b145.pngimage.thumb.png.f4275958b74b69d08486a36145dde576.png 

 

Not the greatest of FV3 runs, it has to be said, though, it is a crap model, anywho -- no harm, no foul::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.f17980eee459075caf28f163a0bd9fa8.pngimage.thumb.png.f91d531dcb22421941d5f38cc15b3de7.png

 

And, as expected, the ensembles have lost some of their inchoate stonkerescence -- better luck next time? -- though SLP is still on the rise. The only way is up?:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.5e777f04bbe25213fe28083f890fc9cd.pngimage.thumb.png.cb50399e5e45420245f21959f63082b3.png 

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The ecm is far less apocalyptic than the gfs and keeps the upper low further to the north. Ergo still a tad unsettled but nowt out of the ordinary

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-9088000.thumb.png.c0e7437872536cba6741d7488c610e74.pngt132.thumb.png.8dec811c9cbd2e18b8ad53a0c56f3f18.pngt156.thumb.png.74c1cb6312507a7fc7e7e3d993f6ace3.png

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Posted (edited)

Holy cow check out the Ecm 00z..what an end..will raise a few eyebrows:spiteful:!!👍:shok:😍🔥

192_mslp500.png

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240_mslp500 (1).png

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giphy (2).gif

Edited by Frosty.

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That dreaded pessimism is coming back to me from the charts from this year compared to last year, at the end of may where those lovely warm and humid charts was getting me all excited. I know we can't always have warm and humid weather but this month is literally saying "no no what are saying warmth? we can't give u that, here have this nice cooling eastly instead". Even though I admit the last couple of days have been nice but that's only because of clear skies and light winds, if the wind was a bit stronger then it won't be that nice unless u was in a sun spot out of the wind.

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NH to be invaded by Moon Nazis? image.thumb.png.fd0b7fe04bafe49ac30c18e7af2f0b9b.png:oldgrin:

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Hurrah....finally a bit of cheer on the ECM 00z. Temps in the mid to upper 20s by next weekend if it's to be believed. Will keep an eye on how it sits within the ensemble set, and more importantly, if it still shows up on the 12z!

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Posted (edited)

Looking at the ukmo 0h there are definite signs of improvement @ T+144 hours with the trough to the NE on its way out and the azores ridge / high on its way in!!!!!!👍

UW144-21.gif

Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)

The 00Z ECMWF mean (using charts between 192 hours to 240 hours), gradually showing the Low Pressure and upper trough over North and North-Eastern UK lifting away somewhat, with the Azores High ridge building in from the South-West. 561B1089-35FF-4DDB-A92E-E4777C88DB52.thumb.png.2ba41bde47c4693c7eea12f6918da5d3.pngB90E056D-5597-400F-B4FB-DB27861BAE8A.thumb.png.e213c674c793f6f9662e1efee447b704.png70D0CF58-61CE-487E-9F26-0418CACAFF33.thumb.png.57e76e51b6442768648edfa2af416e05.png

The weather, particularly over Southern UK (though it’s not been too bad here this week so far), becoming warmer and quite settled. 

Caution as usual being over a week away. Also, sometimes, you have to be aware when using the ensemble mean charts, as there’s often likely to be individual ensemble members that differ a lot from the mean. Having said that, the 00Z ECMWF mean above still shows a pretty good signal for that Azores High to put up more of a fight! ✊🏻

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Correcting typos in last sentence

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The extended Ecm 00z ensemble mean has improved further!👍..the green snot has a new enemy as well as the azores high which Ed Stone discovered yesterday!!!..be afraid, very afraid green snot..like theresa may, your days are numbered!!!!!!!!👍😜

EDM1-240.gif

image.thumb.png.0545c2a3f944d3e0d3a8dfc72100c8e2.png

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Has anyone mentioned the Gem 0z?...ok I will!!!!!!!!!!👍

gem-0-216.png

gem-0-240.png

gem-1-240.png

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Has anyone mentioned the Gem 0z?...ok I will!!!!!!!!!!👍

gem-0-216.png

gem-0-240.png

gem-1-240.png

Quite a happy ending that, for those who love Summery weather, on that 00Z GEM. Especially for Southern and Eastern UK, (but even Northern UK could see some brighter weather for a time) with the Azores High building over to the East of the U.K pulling in a very warm flow from the South. 🌤🔥

Edited by DiagonalRedLine

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In the meantime, we have a good two-days' decent weather to enjoy:

image.thumb.png.eb1c6b7bb0b3808c151f768c537c83bb.pngimage.thumb.png.5b7bc069391623883443a152f4bbcacd.png :oldgood:

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

In the meantime, we have a good two-days' decent weather to enjoy:

image.thumb.png.eb1c6b7bb0b3808c151f768c537c83bb.pngimage.thumb.png.5b7bc069391623883443a152f4bbcacd.png :oldgood:

Indeed we do, there I am talking about next week and yet we are still in a warm fine spell, temps across the s / se up to 22/23c today and low 20's celsius for the following few days further south.👍

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ECM been hinting at improvements for the last couple of days, and again today the 0z showing settled and much warmer conditions by later next week. Word of  caution though, the operational run really did go off on one regarding temps. 

graphe_ens3.png

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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the ukmo 0h there are definite signs of improvement @ T+144 hours with the trough to the NE on its way out and the azores ridge / high on its way in!!!!!!👍

UW144-21.gif

Yep

ukm2.2019053000_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.1f6d310f6f18ba34086c35df52c2dc2b.png

GFS and ECM not so keen for now so caution still required

ecm2.2019053000_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.94547bbd4d5cf17d9aa27b77b4e5ad68.pnggfs2.2019053000_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.dd2607646eddffe99f90349850e10b52.png

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5 hours ago, knocker said:

We have now reached the point where the upper low to the north develops and swings down over the UK. At this stage there is little point in attempting detail IMO so just the evolution of the NH pattern and the five day temp because whichever way you hack it this will introduce colder air.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-9001600.thumb.png.64742747303f31ab7d0da36240e6f5bf.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-9088000.thumb.png.c7ada5a159590ce77499ccd82364cec4.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-9174400.thumb.png.1b7ead7aec0c257bdecb4848e05a4f75.png

gfs-europe_wide-t2m_f_anom_5day-9347200.thumb.png.5141c9c6689a6c1def6bb6e7ca963432.png

interesting charts, especially the one for june 1st suggesting colder then average.

may i ask, what is your opinion of the few runs/models that suggest it hotting up as we enter june? i see the jem is going for it, a few gfs runs have too, plus these ecm charts.. do you think theres any traction to these 'heatwave' suggestions?

 

ECMOPEU12_240_2.png

ECMOPEU00_240_2.png

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The FV3 (great model!) ends with something of a warm-up::yahoo:

image.thumb.png.25ccadf7a7f2a2d4f98928cd0f1fa6db.pngimage.thumb.png.874ec5a43a0438f56eb9a56e6adeff49.png 

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Following a cooler more unsettled blip early next week the GEFS 6z mean improves and then improves some more with an increasingly settled and warmer trend, which has been the case in recent days too!!👍

GFSAVGEU06_216_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_240_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_264_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_288_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_324_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_348_1.png

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