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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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I think this weather-forecasting malarkey would be a whole lot more straightforward were it not for seasonal flies-in-the-ointment: misplaced SSWs, in Winter/early Spring; Atlantic hurricanes, in late Summer/Autumn, come to mind?:oldgrin:

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13 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

GFS and ECM offer very little into next week, Greenland high linking with Azores High. A late springtime recipe for a dogs dinner.

I wish for once you could show just a tad of optimism. I agree that things look largely disappointing through bank holiday and next mid week, but there are some signs from a few of the models of an improvement later next week, that's unless you come from Jon o groats, and in that case,i take it all back... 

Edited by Mattwolves
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7 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I think this weather-forecasting malarkey would be a whole lot more straightforward were it not for seasonal flies-in-the-ointment: misplaced SSWs, in Winter/early Spring; Atlantic hurricanes, in late Summer/Autumn, come to mind?:oldgrin:

this  time last year  was nearly  31  c  alas  looking  at  the maps  for next week north norfoik were im heading is looking  more like winter  this year no needs for shorts up there this year,  even the fantasy charts are  not  good  just  blame  it on brexit!!!

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We have now reached the point where the upper low to the north develops and swings down over the UK. At this stage there is little point in attempting detail IMO so just the evolution of the NH pattern and the five day temp because whichever way you hack it this will introduce colder air.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-9001600.thumb.png.64742747303f31ab7d0da36240e6f5bf.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-9088000.thumb.png.c7ada5a159590ce77499ccd82364cec4.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-9174400.thumb.png.1b7ead7aec0c257bdecb4848e05a4f75.png

gfs-europe_wide-t2m_f_anom_5day-9347200.thumb.png.5141c9c6689a6c1def6bb6e7ca963432.png

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Looking at the Gfs 00z operational there's a chance of snow on the hills / mountains of scotland for a time next week with a very cool unsettled spell but it's noticeable how the areas of green snot diminish as we go through early June and there is some fine and warm weather with high pressure following the unpleasant spell.?

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Looking at the longer term GEFS 00z there's a much better chance of high pressure building in during early June!??

14_330_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Not the greatest of 00Z runs, it has to be said; there's always room for optimism, however::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.e0d3430ed0f831cc772e78fbb258b145.pngimage.thumb.png.f4275958b74b69d08486a36145dde576.png 

 

Not the greatest of FV3 runs, it has to be said, though, it is a crap model, anywho -- no harm, no foul::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.f17980eee459075caf28f163a0bd9fa8.pngimage.thumb.png.f91d531dcb22421941d5f38cc15b3de7.png

 

And, as expected, the ensembles have lost some of their inchoate stonkerescence -- better luck next time? -- though SLP is still on the rise. The only way is up?:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.5e777f04bbe25213fe28083f890fc9cd.pngimage.thumb.png.cb50399e5e45420245f21959f63082b3.png 

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The ecm is far less apocalyptic than the gfs and keeps the upper low further to the north. Ergo still a tad unsettled but nowt out of the ordinary

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-9088000.thumb.png.c0e7437872536cba6741d7488c610e74.pngt132.thumb.png.8dec811c9cbd2e18b8ad53a0c56f3f18.pngt156.thumb.png.74c1cb6312507a7fc7e7e3d993f6ace3.png

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Holy cow check out the Ecm 00z..what an end..will raise a few eyebrows:spiteful:!!?:shok:??

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Edited by Frosty.
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That dreaded pessimism is coming back to me from the charts from this year compared to last year, at the end of may where those lovely warm and humid charts was getting me all excited. I know we can't always have warm and humid weather but this month is literally saying "no no what are saying warmth? we can't give u that, here have this nice cooling eastly instead". Even though I admit the last couple of days have been nice but that's only because of clear skies and light winds, if the wind was a bit stronger then it won't be that nice unless u was in a sun spot out of the wind.

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Hurrah....finally a bit of cheer on the ECM 00z. Temps in the mid to upper 20s by next weekend if it's to be believed. Will keep an eye on how it sits within the ensemble set, and more importantly, if it still shows up on the 12z!

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Looking at the ukmo 0h there are definite signs of improvement @ T+144 hours with the trough to the NE on its way out and the azores ridge / high on its way in!!!!!!?

UW144-21.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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The 00Z ECMWF mean (using charts between 192 hours to 240 hours), gradually showing the Low Pressure and upper trough over North and North-Eastern UK lifting away somewhat, with the Azores High ridge building in from the South-West. 561B1089-35FF-4DDB-A92E-E4777C88DB52.thumb.png.2ba41bde47c4693c7eea12f6918da5d3.pngB90E056D-5597-400F-B4FB-DB27861BAE8A.thumb.png.e213c674c793f6f9662e1efee447b704.png70D0CF58-61CE-487E-9F26-0418CACAFF33.thumb.png.57e76e51b6442768648edfa2af416e05.png

The weather, particularly over Southern UK (though it’s not been too bad here this week so far), becoming warmer and quite settled. 

Caution as usual being over a week away. Also, sometimes, you have to be aware when using the ensemble mean charts, as there’s often likely to be individual ensemble members that differ a lot from the mean. Having said that, the 00Z ECMWF mean above still shows a pretty good signal for that Azores High to put up more of a fight! ✊?

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Correcting typos in last sentence
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The extended Ecm 00z ensemble mean has improved further!?..the green snot has a new enemy as well as the azores high which Ed Stone discovered yesterday!!!..be afraid, very afraid green snot..like theresa may, your days are numbered!!!!!!!!??

EDM1-240.gif

image.thumb.png.0545c2a3f944d3e0d3a8dfc72100c8e2.png

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Has anyone mentioned the Gem 0z?...ok I will!!!!!!!!!!?

gem-0-216.png

gem-0-240.png

gem-1-240.png

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31 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Has anyone mentioned the Gem 0z?...ok I will!!!!!!!!!!?

gem-0-216.png

gem-0-240.png

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Quite a happy ending that, for those who love Summery weather, on that 00Z GEM. Especially for Southern and Eastern UK, (but even Northern UK could see some brighter weather for a time) with the Azores High building over to the East of the U.K pulling in a very warm flow from the South. ??

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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In the meantime, we have a good two-days' decent weather to enjoy:

image.thumb.png.eb1c6b7bb0b3808c151f768c537c83bb.pngimage.thumb.png.5b7bc069391623883443a152f4bbcacd.png :oldgood:

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

In the meantime, we have a good two-days' decent weather to enjoy:

image.thumb.png.eb1c6b7bb0b3808c151f768c537c83bb.pngimage.thumb.png.5b7bc069391623883443a152f4bbcacd.png :oldgood:

Indeed we do, there I am talking about next week and yet we are still in a warm fine spell, temps across the s / se up to 22/23c today and low 20's celsius for the following few days further south.?

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ECM been hinting at improvements for the last couple of days, and again today the 0z showing settled and much warmer conditions by later next week. Word of  caution though, the operational run really did go off on one regarding temps. 

graphe_ens3.png

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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the ukmo 0h there are definite signs of improvement @ T+144 hours with the trough to the NE on its way out and the azores ridge / high on its way in!!!!!!?

UW144-21.gif

Yep

ukm2.2019053000_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.1f6d310f6f18ba34086c35df52c2dc2b.png

GFS and ECM not so keen for now so caution still required

ecm2.2019053000_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.94547bbd4d5cf17d9aa27b77b4e5ad68.pnggfs2.2019053000_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.dd2607646eddffe99f90349850e10b52.png

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5 hours ago, knocker said:

We have now reached the point where the upper low to the north develops and swings down over the UK. At this stage there is little point in attempting detail IMO so just the evolution of the NH pattern and the five day temp because whichever way you hack it this will introduce colder air.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-9001600.thumb.png.64742747303f31ab7d0da36240e6f5bf.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-9088000.thumb.png.c7ada5a159590ce77499ccd82364cec4.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-9174400.thumb.png.1b7ead7aec0c257bdecb4848e05a4f75.png

gfs-europe_wide-t2m_f_anom_5day-9347200.thumb.png.5141c9c6689a6c1def6bb6e7ca963432.png

interesting charts, especially the one for june 1st suggesting colder then average.

may i ask, what is your opinion of the few runs/models that suggest it hotting up as we enter june? i see the jem is going for it, a few gfs runs have too, plus these ecm charts.. do you think theres any traction to these 'heatwave' suggestions?

 

ECMOPEU12_240_2.png

ECMOPEU00_240_2.png

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Following a cooler more unsettled blip early next week the GEFS 6z mean improves and then improves some more with an increasingly settled and warmer trend, which has been the case in recent days too!!?

GFSAVGEU06_216_1.png

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