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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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And the FV3 takes us (not that a computer-model can actually take us anywhere!:oldgrin:) one step closer to HP Heaven:

image.thumb.png.1216709798a8ad81001ea2189e92dd76.png image.thumb.png.54a4ebbf54355fcca17066eebc5d64c9.png Great model!

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Tamara said:

Aside from the standard  posts scattered around designed purely to enkindle reaction and usually predilected and deliberately exaggerated through baseless claims and skewed interpretations of sometimes spurious sources of information, the late Spring pattern has evolved very much akin to expectations of previous analysis.

 

Should we go and stand in the corner? 😮

Edited by knocker

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Thanks Tamara, your posts are always worth the wait and give many of us at least some kind of insight into the bigger picture... Great stuff 👍

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Thanks Tamara, your posts are always worth the wait and give many of us at least some kind of insight into the bigger picture... Great stuff 👍

I'm not sure if Tamara was having a go at me but I thanked her anyway cos she's nice and super-smart.😁🏆🏆

Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm not sure if Tamara was having a go at me but I thanked her anyway cos she's nice and super smart.😁🏆🏆

Yeh the forum is lucky to have someone with that kind of knowledge, could have been signalling me out as well Karl.. But I wouldn't  care because her posts are just awesome. Onto the models, the 12z is showing hope, and dare I say it some warmth! Had to laugh at our midlands today regional forecaster.. She said today hit 20c....and if you can bare it, we have more of the same on the way!!! Give me a break.... This time last year was like quatermass in comparison.... Either way I'm not go na complain.... 😉👍

Edited by Mattwolves

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Posted (edited)

Well there's more good news, the GEFS 12z mean is trending more settled and warmer from around day 10 onwards, as did the 6z and 0z before it!!👍

GFSAVGEU12_264_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_312_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_336_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_360_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_384_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_384_2.png

Edited by Frosty.

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GEFS 12Z ensembles are showing signs of upcoming stonkerescence:

image.thumb.png.5f9a38318ea09258a104b0c6efcb183c.pngimage.thumb.png.44cc22b6affa53ce51877ba7d7db8b8d.png 

Let's hope the overdue demise of the PV remnants is nigh!:yahoo:

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The ecm is not intensifying the upper low as much as the gfs next week, and the trough is also structurally different, so at this stage the surface analysis is still up for grabs and awaits sorting by the det. outputs. But midweek is certainly looking as if it might be quite unsettled

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-8958400.thumb.png.6393a5cd4e022bedb19b627cba36cee6.pngecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-9131200.thumb.png.4ad85ed5e39bcdea866ba86740f45a32.png

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ECM 12z in full:

anim_ans0.gif

Something about this looks a bit unconvincing but I can't put my finger on what, any road, after a very unsettled period midweek, an improvement at the end of the run.

But, I think uncertainty is the watch word from the models today...

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Posted (edited)

An unsettled mid week period coming up from ECM, that crap I'm not gonna post it... But I will post signs of an improvement by the later frames, and most definitely signs of a warm up. 

So to sum up its a decent start, a terrible middle, and an improving ending..... I await Karl's ECM means update!! Oh and I agree with what Mike says above.... Some uncertainty at present 👍

ECM0-216.gif

ECM0-240.gif

ECM1-240 (1).gif

Edited by Mattwolves

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gfs-0-240.png?12ECM1-240.GIF?22-0

Interesting to see both GFS and ECM showing a similar scenario going forward, obviously its to far out to take seriously but trends have to begin somewhere!

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Compared to how hideously the Ecm 0z ended, the 12z is a great result for the south!👍

ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

ECMOPEU12_240_2.png

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Posted (edited)

Probably worth posting the JMA out to T192:

anim_sej8.gif

I think this is looking more promising for a settled warm spell developing from T192 onwards.  

Also worth noting on this, where is the unsettled weather in the middle of this run coming from, not the Atlantic is it?  Another reason as we get into summer proper to have increasing confidence of some heat.

Edited by Mike Poole

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5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM 12z in full:

anim_ans0.gif

Something about this looks a bit unconvincing but I can't put my finger on what, any road, after a very unsettled period midweek, an improvement at the end of the run.

But, I think uncertainty is the watch word from the models today...

What looks amusing about that run is that main deep Low heading down from Northern Scandinavia towards the UK. The Low thinks it can make itself comfortable over us. But then it sees the angry Azores High building in to our South. Suddenly, the Low decides it’s no longer safe to stay here, so it flees back to Scandinavia. I guess it had no choice, or face the evil forces of the Azores High!

(To be fair, it’s mostly thanks to the way that Low operates that makes me think that 12Z ECMWF is bahaving strangely). 

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I mentioned uncertainty earlier, here's the ECM mean NH plot at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.70396e718ca470aa7e82f21e0cfb2a76.jpg

What an utterly vacuous chart! 

All remains to be firmed up in future runs.  

 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I mentioned uncertainty earlier, here's the ECM mean NH plot at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.70396e718ca470aa7e82f21e0cfb2a76.jpg

What an utterly vacuous chart! 

All remains to be firmed up in future runs.  

 

It looks better here..for the azores, spain and southern france anyway👍😁

EDM1-240.gif

Edited by Frosty.

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

It looks better here 👍

EDM1-240.gif

Maybe, Karl, but it is the lack of any meaningful signal whatsoever over the whole polar region that struck me!  

I'm not saying this is a bad thing, I actually think the models may be hinting at a change to a summery outlook, consistent with background signals....but we have a period of uncertainty to get through.

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Maybe, Karl, but it is the lack of any meaningful signal whatsoever over the whole polar region that struck me!  

I'm not saying this is a bad thing, I actually think the models may be hinting at a change to a summery outlook, consistent with background signals....but we have a period of uncertainty to get through.

Yes Mike but whenever someone mentions background signals i get nervous, still shell shocked by that abysmal winter with great background signals!👍😁💩

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12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I mentioned uncertainty earlier, here's the ECM mean NH plot at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.70396e718ca470aa7e82f21e0cfb2a76.jpg

What an utterly vacuous chart! 

All remains to be firmed up in future runs.  

 

Looks as if that green thing is about to implode...pop! image.thumb.png.0545c2a3f944d3e0d3a8dfc72100c8e2.png

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UKMO extended is the best of the bunch tonight at D7

ukm2.2019052912_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.04e9f16a0b8586339e3e593e3357271a.png

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The mean EPS has the upper low north of the UK intensifying and then weakening, all within the 5-10 day period, accompanied by amplification of the European high Which results in the low being centred west of southern Norway,

Upstream a familiar amplified pattern with a quite intense vortex lobe in the Hudson Bay area with a very strong westerly upper flow running between this and the subtropical high ridging in the south east of The US

This exits the north east seaboard and runs south of the blocking ridge in the north west Atlantic and Greenland, around the subtropical high in mid Atlantic and across the UK to join the circulation of the aforementioned low.

This portends unsettled weather with temps below average

Not unusually the amplification slackens in the ext period but the pattern is essentially the same.

5-10.thumb.png.9ec0936ab928a77f2e59bd93affff2dc.png1719723121_5-10temp.thumb.png.efd952c74005ddd37a709604f1293f1c.png10-15.thumb.png.0d7eb8f7d64180a3713a99414b1faf9b.png

NOAA in the same ball park

610day_03.thumb.gif.ee497af35b5dc42adc984845063a808b.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.7ec1844ab7c7a6a68fa299b6e3d2a9f6.gif

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CFS update for June, as always no point in looking at one run, here's the last 8 runs average Z500 anomaly for the month:

image.thumb.jpg.d710e9645addf3fe77a86cf82905816d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.2ebac3a408c46419d446d7b9194da667.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.5e7767cce52f7325070ebf9c5b92d275.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.58ee1e72235c98417d8ebdb80722e996.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.2d4cfec6a39240686a843a638fc62986.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.1f8c63fd6e57fd06aedae068b40a6d85.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.0bc58c4ae98d3b8ebdcfa44cf2956998.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.108eb15fa4cc35277038f3b548e03328.jpg

The theme is high pressure dominated but uncertainty over where that might be centered.  Which supports the view I have had for at least two months now, and posted on here, that this will be a hot summer, but with more thundery breakdowns than last year,  and  quite significantly so. We will see...

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GFS and ECM offer very little into next week, Greenland high linking with Azores High. A late springtime recipe for a dogs dinner.

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The cfs has improved a bit in FI since the last time I checked!!:santa-emoji:😍

cfs-2-5028.png

cfs-0-5028.png

cfs-0-5220.png

cfs-2-5220.png

mask-rd.jpg

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