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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Still no indication of rampant, unremitting cold, come the end of the GFS 06Z:

image.thumb.png.a73f4039c347b3db6c2b0cb9ac1e3bce.pngimage.thumb.png.4202e6a927dd922c0423c27e8790d1db.png 

By the same token, there's no sign of an imminent 1976-esque heatwave, either...Such is life!:shok:

Diminishing green snot is still worth celebrating ??

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Extracts posted last week on closed thread:   The other part of the equation is the seasonal transition within the stratosphere from its winter default vortex position to its summer state. T

Greetings to you all! ? A glistening new thread for the month of May and early Summer! As we head deeper into Spring and into Summer (though I guess for some, May could be classed as a Summer

There are no apologies for self quoting a significant extract of the post the other day because its central focus becomes more primary to how NWP evolves in the remainder of this month and into the st

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I think guys the 6z operational not to bad overall, yes we have a bit more in the way of unsettled conditions bank holiday and early next week, I said last night ECM perhaps would build high pressure beyond day 10....well the 6z brings us under largely high pressure by the latter part of next week, so again we see a rinse, repeat scenario.... Nay bad lads... Nay bad ??

Edit... I think Karl mentioned it also ?

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Edited by Mattwolves
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The GEFS 6z mean improves significantly over time as the previous runs with some support for a warmer anticyclonic early June period or perhaps even something very warm, humid, continental and thundery..or both!!?

GFSAVGEU06_228_1.png

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Edited by Frosty.
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1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

 

I'm hopeful the GEFS is on the right track with increasing potential for high pressure and warmth beyond the upcoming cooler unsettled spell which may turn out to be no more than a blip and mainly for the north as the 6z operational shows!!.?

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..
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Something to keep an eye on:

Day 6 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_144.

Day 10 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_240.

Day 15 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_360.

Notice how the very strong reds and oranges indicative of Greenland/northern blocking are starting to ease. 2 of the clusters show a build of Scandi heights too....so worth watching out for.

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9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Something to keep an eye on:

Day 6 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_144.

Day 10 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_240.

Day 15 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_360.

Notice how the very strong reds and oranges indicative of Greenland/northern blocking are starting to ease. 2 of the clusters show a build of Scandi heights too....so worth watching out for.

 I’ve noticed that too. Northern Blocking doesn’t look half as strong as it did previously

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The cfs 0z for the month of June into early July indicates a decent amount of ridging / high pressure mixed with occasional showery troughs, however, late June / early July has a stronger anticyclonic signal currently!? 

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Edited by Frosty.
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Some posts have been hidden/edited. Any more issues please report them to the team, Do not air them in here as folk log on to read constructive posts.

Thankyou please continue ?

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Reading between the lines of what the cfs is showing for June plus other latest update from you know who...? I'm not seeing a bad first month of summer, it looks average with a mixture of ridging / high pressure and showery disturbances (troughs) so something for everyone really with plenty of fine warm weather and some heavy, thundery showers so not a heatwave drought but no cool washout either!!

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2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Something to keep an eye on:

Day 6 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_144.

Day 10 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_240.

Day 15 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_360.

Notice how the very strong reds and oranges indicative of Greenland/northern blocking are starting to ease. 2 of the clusters show a build of Scandi heights too....so worth watching out for.

I think this could be just because it's gone over month end. 

I'm sure I recall someone saying on here in winter that the anomalies (colours) are against monthly average values, so the latter two charts against June, the first against May. 

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Possibly - but at any time of year strong red colours in that area would indicate blocking, whether its June or December. I doubt that it flicking into June would have that effect, but I’m not sure.

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Taking a look at the icon 12z run shows some more fine conditions for the next few days, we see a gradual decline in conditions by the bank holiday, but I'm feeling more optimistic of heights gaining a foothold again as we move deeper into next week... Not bad... Especially for more Southern parts of the U.k. 

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6 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Interesting comparison between the Ecm 00z op / mean @ T+240 hours..I prefer the mean!??

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Broadly tell the same story though low to the east height s to the south west winds from the west / north west -  normal service for early June and very different from last year !

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Worth a quick look at tonight as low pressure over southern Norway and associated occlusions continue to bring persistent rain to northern  Scotland which may just effect the far NE by dawn. Perhaps too some light showery rain over N. Ireland and northern England associated with warm front, or even remnants of the upper front. And perhaps cloud and some light rain into the far south west by dawn

PPVA89.thumb.gif.9d5eb05d66941f53345f8fbad86b3b5e.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.b716b1c4ce6e07b38f37f92894be0b5a.gifps_reflec_d02_13.thumb.png.064d47a9f0643e7efbf3d83f239dc916.pngps_reflec_d02_16.thumb.png.f15f24ca3534da71c34aaf0e46434dd1.pngps_reflec_d02_21.thumb.png.76c11d5bd360ec3e76879b03d68ef162.pngps_reflec_d02_24.thumb.png.50bcb72bf489a6e0d8816adbff34755a.png

 

Edited by knocker
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7 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Broadly tell the same story though low to the east height s to the south west winds from the west / north west -  normal service for early June and very different from last year !

My point was it's the lesser of two evils, the mean suggests the azores ridge has a better chance of building in with the trough clearing quicker...hope that's the case!?

Edited by Frosty.
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Looking at the ukmo 12h @ T+144 hours, unsettled and cool but it's the north that bears the brunt, perhaps not so bad in the south but now I'm polishing a..??

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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The gfs starts intensifying the upper low quite early in the piece leading to sme pretty grim surface conditions by midweek. I say no more until the ecm is out

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8958400.thumb.png.8a02147329b16e7a8ded5c711d89e65d.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-9131200.thumb.png.c8c7fad97f3df2c6944530ea33575bb7.png

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Now, that's more like it...Better from the 12Z::oldgood:

image.thumb.png.0b15f75067f02e4ac1c05fbe1871533b.pngimage.thumb.png.19c672f980c444480760e19a1d1e27a1.png 

The FV3 becomes anticyclonic too..great model!?

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Forget the bank holiday period folks, feast ya eyes on the bigger picture, the 12z at last bringing a bit of heat.... And if you don't like it, then get out of the kitchen.... ?

gfs-0-240 (1).png

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Funny-summer-is-coming-picture-with-quote.jpg

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