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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Still no indication of rampant, unremitting cold, come the end of the GFS 06Z:

image.thumb.png.a73f4039c347b3db6c2b0cb9ac1e3bce.pngimage.thumb.png.4202e6a927dd922c0423c27e8790d1db.png 

By the same token, there's no sign of an imminent 1976-esque heatwave, either...Such is life!:shok:

Diminishing green snot is still worth celebrating 👍😉

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FV3 (brilliant model!) doesn't end all that badly -- 0C uppers, or above, will do me!:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.35257701d43dc774e11afe4b8ae3ccd5.pngimage.thumb.png.451afeb3edba8589c18ea0d90c009edd.png 

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Posted (edited)

I think guys the 6z operational not to bad overall, yes we have a bit more in the way of unsettled conditions bank holiday and early next week, I said last night ECM perhaps would build high pressure beyond day 10....well the 6z brings us under largely high pressure by the latter part of next week, so again we see a rinse, repeat scenario.... Nay bad lads... Nay bad 😉👍

Edit... I think Karl mentioned it also 👍

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Edited by Mattwolves

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Posted (edited)

The GEFS 6z mean improves significantly over time as the previous runs with some support for a warmer anticyclonic early June period or perhaps even something very warm, humid, continental and thundery..or both!!👍

GFSAVGEU06_228_1.png

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GFSAVGEU06_276_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_372_1.png

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GFSP19EU06_372_2.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

 

I'm hopeful the GEFS is on the right track with increasing potential for high pressure and warmth beyond the upcoming cooler unsettled spell which may turn out to be no more than a blip and mainly for the north as the 6z operational shows!!.👍

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

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Something to keep an eye on:

Day 6 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_144.

Day 10 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_240.

Day 15 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_360.

Notice how the very strong reds and oranges indicative of Greenland/northern blocking are starting to ease. 2 of the clusters show a build of Scandi heights too....so worth watching out for.

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9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Something to keep an eye on:

Day 6 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_144.

Day 10 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_240.

Day 15 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_360.

Notice how the very strong reds and oranges indicative of Greenland/northern blocking are starting to ease. 2 of the clusters show a build of Scandi heights too....so worth watching out for.

 I’ve noticed that too. Northern Blocking doesn’t look half as strong as it did previously

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The hres sat image for midday

modis.thumb.JPG.715898d355aa517cc03d1b496a154aa2.JPGPPVA89.thumb.gif.0ab69a4908db084482091cbc6d196f3f.gif12.thumb.gif.e9be50fdd2663ba29eab225dc2268db9.gif

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Posted (edited)

The cfs 0z for the month of June into early July indicates a decent amount of ridging / high pressure mixed with occasional showery troughs, however, late June / early July has a stronger anticyclonic signal currently!👍 

cfs-0-444.png

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cfs-0-948.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Some posts have been hidden/edited. Any more issues please report them to the team, Do not air them in here as folk log on to read constructive posts.

Thankyou please continue 🙂

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51 minutes ago, knocker said:

The hres sat image for midday

modis.thumb.JPG.715898d355aa517cc03d1b496a154aa2.JPG

Some small Cu and a fair bit of Ci here

2019052212.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.a4c57e9029dd34b9ef367509f90f9976.gif

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Reading between the lines of what the cfs is showing for June plus other latest update from you know who...😉 I'm not seeing a bad first month of summer, it looks average with a mixture of ridging / high pressure and showery disturbances (troughs) so something for everyone really with plenty of fine warm weather and some heavy, thundery showers so not a heatwave drought but no cool washout either!!

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2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Something to keep an eye on:

Day 6 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_144.

Day 10 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_240.

Day 15 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_360.

Notice how the very strong reds and oranges indicative of Greenland/northern blocking are starting to ease. 2 of the clusters show a build of Scandi heights too....so worth watching out for.

I think this could be just because it's gone over month end. 

I'm sure I recall someone saying on here in winter that the anomalies (colours) are against monthly average values, so the latter two charts against June, the first against May. 

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Possibly - but at any time of year strong red colours in that area would indicate blocking, whether its June or December. I doubt that it flicking into June would have that effect, but I’m not sure.

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Taking a look at the icon 12z run shows some more fine conditions for the next few days, we see a gradual decline in conditions by the bank holiday, but I'm feeling more optimistic of heights gaining a foothold again as we move deeper into next week... Not bad... Especially for more Southern parts of the U.k. 

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icon-0-144.png

icon-0-168.png

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6 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Interesting comparison between the Ecm 00z op / mean @ T+240 hours..I prefer the mean!👍😜

ECM1-240.gif

EDM1-240.gif

Broadly tell the same story though low to the east height s to the south west winds from the west / north west -  normal service for early June and very different from last year !

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Posted (edited)

Worth a quick look at tonight as low pressure over southern Norway and associated occlusions continue to bring persistent rain to northern  Scotland which may just effect the far NE by dawn. Perhaps too some light showery rain over N. Ireland and northern England associated with warm front, or even remnants of the upper front. And perhaps cloud and some light rain into the far south west by dawn

PPVA89.thumb.gif.9d5eb05d66941f53345f8fbad86b3b5e.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.b716b1c4ce6e07b38f37f92894be0b5a.gifps_reflec_d02_13.thumb.png.064d47a9f0643e7efbf3d83f239dc916.pngps_reflec_d02_16.thumb.png.f15f24ca3534da71c34aaf0e46434dd1.pngps_reflec_d02_21.thumb.png.76c11d5bd360ec3e76879b03d68ef162.pngps_reflec_d02_24.thumb.png.50bcb72bf489a6e0d8816adbff34755a.png

 

Edited by knocker

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Broadly tell the same story though low to the east height s to the south west winds from the west / north west -  normal service for early June and very different from last year !

My point was it's the lesser of two evils, the mean suggests the azores ridge has a better chance of building in with the trough clearing quicker...hope that's the case!👍

Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)

Looking at the ukmo 12h @ T+144 hours, unsettled and cool but it's the north that bears the brunt, perhaps not so bad in the south but now I'm polishing a..💩😜

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

Edited by Frosty.

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The gfs starts intensifying the upper low quite early in the piece leading to sme pretty grim surface conditions by midweek. I say no more until the ecm is out

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8958400.thumb.png.8a02147329b16e7a8ded5c711d89e65d.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-9131200.thumb.png.c8c7fad97f3df2c6944530ea33575bb7.png

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Now, that's more like it...Better from the 12Z::oldgood:

image.thumb.png.0b15f75067f02e4ac1c05fbe1871533b.pngimage.thumb.png.19c672f980c444480760e19a1d1e27a1.png 

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Now, that's more like it...Better from the 12Z::oldgood:

image.thumb.png.0b15f75067f02e4ac1c05fbe1871533b.pngimage.thumb.png.19c672f980c444480760e19a1d1e27a1.png 

The FV3 becomes anticyclonic too..great model!😉

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Forget the bank holiday period folks, feast ya eyes on the bigger picture, the 12z at last bringing a bit of heat.... And if you don't like it, then get out of the kitchen.... 😉

gfs-0-240 (1).png

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Aside from the standard  posts scattered around designed purely to enkindle reaction and usually predilected and deliberately exaggerated through baseless claims and skewed interpretations of sometimes spurious sources of information, the late Spring pattern has evolved very much akin to expectations of previous analysis.

That is - the substantial downwelling of -ve zonal wind anomalies at higher latitudes vs attempts for seasonal ascendancy of the tropical/ferrel cell to assign the jet stream northwards assisted by a weak El Nino forcing pattern in the Pacific. The former  strongly -AO regime making the latter much more difficult to achieve than was seen under the +AO regime of late February that ironically managed to achieve temperatures not too dissimilar to what many reasonably hope for at this time of year.

The recent convectively coupled kelvin wave (CCKW) has produced a considerable train of strong westerly wind bursts across the Pacific

Hovmollers.thumb.GIF.a1adc0a9f99971b8a6dac87ec8c8fe77.GIF

 It can also be said that whilst the -AO regime has made any heatwave elusive, this Pacific pattern has still provided some fair weather and prevented an even cooler May CET from evolving than if we had been in a low angular momentum regime under substantial higher latitude blocking

As the associated MJO wave concludes and passes into the Western Hemisphere, on into the Indian Ocean at the start of the next cycle and attempts at upwelling cooler water occur in the Pacific as trade winds increase once more, its to be expected to see angular momentum tendency drop as the previous span of westerlies are scrubbed out from the atmospheric circulation

The ECM wind-field anomaly identifies those upcoming trade winds in association with the lull phase of the tropical cycle as it passes through the I/O and suppression returning at the same time to the Pacific as identified by weeks 1 and 2 VP200 (velocity potential) anomalies

571450167_ECMVP200anomalies.thumb.GIF.22a67dd841122d77777fca74f1a7e4aa.GIFimage.thumb.png.269dea42eaeab26d713022a3f5d383d6.png

This upstream change and scrubbing out of recent westerlies signifies re-amplification in the Pacific transferring to a downstream Atlantic ridge response exacerbating the Greenland heights signal at the same time as a wedge of vorticity is allowed to sink SW'wards over Scandinavia and the northern most Atlantic towards the UK and presents a trough solution evolving immediately after the Bank Holiday.

What is problematic is that this signal is to be assessed at where globally averaged angular momentum sits relative to the orbit of the Global Wind Oscillation. These indicators show westerly wind inertia throughout the global atmospheric circulation to be higher than average - with the standing wave still echoing a weak El Nino signature in the Pacific and the GWO well away from the low angular momentum octants. 

GLAAM.thumb.PNG.b3ddf5b5266705a786b6926dfacd5450.PNG2029346633_GWOMay.thumb.GIF.e3d685c4367a73c4d6e4b03a7b5078f7.GIF

This puts some question as to the sustainability of this medium term Atlantic ridge and downstream trough signal - especially as the tropical convective MJO signal continues to be active and churning across the globe - which means that further westerly wind bursts can be generated.

Despite its jaundiced reputation in relation to NWP interpretation of wider signals, the CFS seasonal modelling has some value in its indicators. It has remained steadfast for the last couple of weeks on angular momentum retaining a floor relative to the Pacific signal for June at the least - with the next upturn of angular momentum tendency signalled to follow the upcoming trade wind increase, in tandem with eastward propagation of the next MJO wave

image.thumb.png.ed3f5dbb3798d4b05d2da017dc126886.png

On this basis at least, and as this forecast is not without support from other modelling, and notwithstanding the CFS tendency to over amplify tropical signals - and still its worth being very cautious of trying to extrapolate the 5 to 10 day trend for cool and unsettled weather to take hold c/o Atlantic ridging and downstream trough for large swathes of the month to follow. Hence ensemble mean suites needs to be gauged carefully against this over the coming days and certainly not worth taking too much notice at all of intra day operational swings that are, frankly, best avoided at any time anyway.

Looking forward ahead even further than this naturally becomes very highly uncertain and even more problematic - its to be seen whether the present ocean trend to want to cool the Pacific ENSO zone succeeds in overriding the ability of the atmosphere to sustain WWB's and therefore unable to prevent a more sustainable switch to a more la Nina-esque Atlantic ridge and downstream trough scenario. Avoiding this for the greater part of the summer looks less likely than seemed possible earlier in the Spring, but it is not, yet, inevitable by any means that the first half of this summer at least won't seen some pleasant seasonal weather.

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12z Heading in right direction - that SW pull of warmer weather is clinging on and refuses to go away.   Good signs

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