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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, knocker said:

The NH 500mb profile and the North Atlantic surface analysis for midnight...

Seems like not too bad of a week settled weather-wise for Southern UK in general (apart from a few odd showers at times), and feeling reasonable in the sunny spells. Probably not as disturbed as I previously thought a few days ago. And good weather for the Boov’s from Home to have an outdoor disco party! 🎶

Though as you say, with what the charts show, generally more changeable over Northern and North-Eastern areas of the U.K with more in the way of lower pressure. Though I guess even these areas could see some brighter weather at times. 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine

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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.4c64957c2b651be8299992c5785e7df0.pngimage.thumb.png.a3726cb52dcd48c21dfaaec76b68d6f4.png

No words needed.

This would be extraordinarily bad luck if it came off, the UK ends up with colder air than Svalbard! As someone alluded to earlier, the arctic seems to be much warmer than usual with very little deep cold left. Yet still the green snot seems like it might make it our shores.

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What I don't understand is why he said No words needed, this is the model output discussion isn't it?..you can't just post charts with no explanation of what it shows because some on here are trying to learn and how are they going to learn if someone just posts a few charts and says no words needed!!👍😉

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

What I don't understand is why he said No words needed, this is the model output discussion isn't it?..you can't just post charts with no explanation of what it shows because some on here are trying to learn and how are they going to learn if someone just posts a few charts and says no words needed!!👍😉

True, it certainly seems very negative. It isn't the worst chart in the world after all. It would certainly be very cool for the time of year though.

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Posted (edited)

I'm not going to sugar coat it, the Ecm 00z ensemble mean has taken a turn for the more unsettled and cooler longer term with the trough more dominant for longer and the azores high / ridge not as influential as it was on the previous run.

EDM1-192.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.

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Nights start drawing in soon, seriously though either the models are getting it wrong longer term or we have in for a "meh" summer.

Doesn't help the lack of rain and water levels - would be different if we had hot sunshine but to just have cloud and cool north plunges and dry is the most useless type of weather that suits neither man or earth.  Looking back at the model archive we had a few cool plunges in 92 that alternated between that and plumes (rollercoaster of up/down so if it was a few weeks of cool that would turn lead to few weeks of heat) 

At the moment we are stuck in the down,  down repeat phase.  You get front loaded summers and back loaded, worst case scenario we go from cool northerly to Atlantic weather and rain with no high pressure / or plumes at all. 

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

I'm not going to sugar coat it, the Ecm 00z ensemble mean has taken a turn for the more unsettled and cooler longer term with the trough more dominant for longer and the azores high / ridge not as influential as it was on the previous run.

EDM1-192.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

I wonder if this is suggesting that this year June will be accompanied by a return of the westerlies which is a common occurance .... and heralds the end of the good conditions in the west and an improvement often for  eastern and southern areas ?

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1 minute ago, Badgers01 said:

I wonder if this is suggesting that this year June will be accompanied by a return of the westerlies which is a common occurance .... and heralds the end of the good conditions in the west and an improvement often for  eastern and southern areas ?

At last, a level headed post! I mentioned this the other day about a return to more typical kind of conditions, meaning the best of the conditions towards the S/SE. with more unsettled  conditions towards the North. You simply can't keep getting  countrywide warm and settled spells all the time. And again judging by some of the posts in here this morning, yet again summer is over on the 21st May! All  because things aren't has rosey has this time last year! The weather here is yet again warm and sunny, yet Reading some posts on here it's dire! Personally I think it's not been a half bad spring, but it seems others think it's been a write off. I think it's time for some to lower there expectations, or perhaps emigrate to the Costa del sol.... 

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You can be sure that now we are closing in on Summer Solstice the models will always be struggling due to their poor performance. They all struggle unless we are under a prolonged period of settled weather. So take any model output, whether long term or short term, settled or unsettled with a pinch of salt unless its showing in the 72 hours range. The middle of July when models start to become more reliable.            

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The Gem 0z actually ends on a positive note with the trough departing and the azores ridge building in.👍

gem-0-240.png

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Posted (edited)

The GEFS 6z mean markedly improves beyond day 10 with the azores high ridging in and a good chance of an anticyclonic spell evolving during early June!👍

GFSAVGEU06_252_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_276_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_300_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_324_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_348_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_372_1.png

Edited by Frosty.

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11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gem 0z actually ends on a positive note with the trough departing and the azores ridge building in.👍

gem-0-240.png

The problem I continue to see at the moment is the amount of high pressure up north until that shifts we're not going to get any lengthy lasting warm settled weather. Obviously on the brighter day's it feels pleasant enough given the strong sunshine now but temps are nothing special 

00z ECM shows the northern blocking of course sod's law it appears at the wrong time of year. Thankfully it's still only May, and we've got a lot of time yet to get a more positive outlook

ECH1-72.thumb.gif.fcf479674126823c340c10802def4780.gifECH1-144.thumb.gif.a6ed6d466d63dd8a1e582332e3f3ef1a.gif

ECH1-192.thumb.gif.dde551d7e9c89f3f95ddf08b2984acb6.gifECH1-240.thumb.gif.f5e9752718b16e3866fb37fd1247e289.gif

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1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

At last, a level headed post! I mentioned this the other day about a return to more typical kind of conditions, meaning the best of the conditions towards the S/SE. with more unsettled  conditions towards the North. You simply can't keep getting  countrywide warm and settled spells all the time. And again judging by some of the posts in here this morning, yet again summer is over on the 21st May! All  because things aren't has rosey has this time last year! The weather here is yet again warm and sunny, yet Reading some posts on here it's dire! Personally I think it's not been a half bad spring, but it seems others think it's been a write off. I think it's time for some to lower there expectations, or perhaps emigrate to the Costa del sol.... 

Clearly it depends on your location as to how you perceive the Spring so far. Personally I think it’s been fairly average, yet the  continual potential in the far depths of the charts has promised much but delivered little. Very similar to the Winter charts.

There always seems to be an Azores high ready to nudge in but by the time it should’ve nudged in its back to its 10 day hence position.

With Summer just round the corner my feeling is it’s likely to be pretty traditional.... nothing too horrendous and better the further SE you travel.

There does seem to have been a lot of Easterly winds through Spring so perhaps this could lead to some decent Continental weather visiting us from time to time? 

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Nice Plume building in towards the end of the GFS run would be a scorcher if it came off . 

 

image.thumb.png.80f86532eb7f7d401ca5e9aa199b7cf5.png

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23 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

Nice Plume building in towards the end of the GFS run would be a scorcher if it came off . 

 

image.thumb.png.80f86532eb7f7d401ca5e9aa199b7cf5.png

Would be nice but these plumes really seem to be summers winter equivalent of an easterly always deep in FI 

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Lots of panic in here for some reason. For the last two months the weather has changed on pretty much a weekly basis and that looks like continuing. We’ve had cold from the north, rain from the southwest, cloud from the east, now sun, then perhaps a more mobile spell next week and a return of relative cold conditions a possibility into June, then again maybe not. Certainly no Atlantic train in sight - that’s very much reserved for the worst summers.

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06Z shows models are struggling long term and anything chop and change that far ahead.   Stunning end to 06 🙂 

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1 hour ago, MP-R said:

Lots of panic in here for some reason. For the last two months the weather has changed on pretty much a weekly basis and that looks like continuing. We’ve had cold from the north, rain from the southwest, cloud from the east, now sun, then perhaps a more mobile spell next week and a return of relative cold conditions a possibility into June, then again maybe not. Certainly no Atlantic train in sight - that’s very much reserved for the worst summers.

They are probably panicked by the latest long term met office forecast which is pretty woeful it must be said, if its summer weather you are chasing. There will be a fair chunk of summer gone if that forecast is in anyway accurate. And that is what the models are showing. 

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5 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

They are probably panicked by the latest long term met office forecast which is pretty woeful it must be said, if its summer weather you are chasing. There will be a fair chunk of summer gone if that forecast is in anyway accurate. And that is what the models are showing. 

The long range forecast is about as vague as you can get lol so, again, no panic needed after one day of not so nice model runs.

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59 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

They are probably panicked by the latest long term met office forecast which is pretty woeful it must be said, if its summer weather you are chasing. There will be a fair chunk of summer gone if that forecast is in anyway accurate. And that is what the models are showing. 

Yet again another negative post, firstly signals are weak, which indicates nobody as a clue! Secondly, it runs to mid June which to my knowledge is not half the summer gone! Buts let's be honest, this is to be expected, because come 1st December with a poor pattern, folks will be calling time on winter. 

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7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yet again another negative post

Indeed, those longer term (T+240 plus) GEFS 6z mean charts i posted above look very nice but all I read on here is doom and gloom and it's not even summer yet!!..we seem to have had plenty of summery weather already but again that's conveniently glossed over as if it hasn't even happened!!

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Posted (edited)

Looking at the ukmo 12h there's some very decent weather in the coming days across central and especially southern uk with warm sunny spells and light winds, most of the rain and cooler temps confined to the far north. It does trend more unsettled later from the NW but again, the south may escape the worst of it and benefit from weak azores heights.

UW48-21.gif

UW48-7.gif

UW72-21.gif

UW96-21.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW120-7.gif

UW144-21.gif

Edited by Frosty.

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6 hours ago, Badgers01 said:

I wonder if this is suggesting that this year June will be accompanied by a return of the westerlies which is a common occurance .... and heralds the end of the good conditions in the west and an improvement often for  eastern and southern areas ?

could be, normally it's late June, where westerlies return, summer starting in the south, finishing in Scotland

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48 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, those longer term (T+240 plus) GEFS 6z mean charts i posted above look very nice but all I read on here is doom and gloom and it's not even summer yet!!..we seem to have had plenty of summery weather already but again that's conveniently glossed over as if it hasn't even happened!!

Thanks for that Karl, in all honesty as you will be aware, I'm normally full of positivity, and like you say we have already had some decent spells of weather so far, I have found myself becoming more and more negative reading some of the posts on here... I mentioned it to a friend and they said.... Get a grip.... And it ain't even summer til June 21, and this coming from a novice who knows little about the weather. Thanks again for putting a positive spin on things which you are the master of to be honest. And them charts you have posted are not half bad! It looks like the south could do best which is relatively typical! And to mention long range signals appear to be weak, which basically means we could end up with any type of weather..... For better or worse I may add.. But we have a long summer ahead so let's just try to make the best of it, I'm sure we won't be waiting long for our first significant plume.... Happy days mate 👍

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Posted (edited)

Latest ECM monthly shows a drier than average week this week away from NE Scotland with temps around or a bit above average

MonthlyAnomalies_T2m_20190520_w1.thumb.png.147a8772268c796c819a2affa70ad7db.pngMonthlyAnomalies_Rain_20190520_w1.thumb.png.f283d0bd64491cc449d387299e225a2f.png

Weeks 2 shows temps going below normal with rain in the north the south hangs on to the drier conditions

MonthlyAnomalies_T2m_20190520_w2.thumb.png.42774ae14a819e9e2b6f62c61ae8cf8b.pngMonthlyAnomalies_Rain_20190520_w2.thumb.png.a60ff8ddc8cb3f21c5ca33df6356111e.png

Week 3 again sees temps no better than average remaining below average in the west. Wetter than average for most but maybe still below average for some eastern areas

MonthlyAnomalies_T2m_20190520_w3.thumb.png.4b74cdb95937c501bad842939a5482f6.pngMonthlyAnomalies_Rain_20190520_w3.thumb.png.e5bc96f8affa7763a5bc59ca51cac437.png

Week 4 shows warmer and drier conditions returning nationwide

Monthly-Anomalies-T2m-20190520-w4.thumb.png.db10f2b085c80acd48b1ae704da3b451.pngMonthly-Anomalies-Rain-20190520-w4.thumb.png.b4257bd889f90b2fb7c2eeb09d710b8c.png

 

Edited by Summer Sun

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