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Posted (edited)

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean really cheers up towards the end of the run, if anything, even more than the 00z..hopefully portends better times to come beyond the cool generally unsettled spell.!ūüĎć

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.

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Evening All! The British weather keeps us on our toes, , This May bank holiday may well see record lows .and a Horrible start to May... cold wet and windy..

h850t850eu-9.png

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2 hours ago, 38.5*C said:

GFS = Bland    ECM = Bland    GEM = Bland  

I can see where its all heading. Vile sypnotic patterns are always known to stick around like glue. Wasn't the last time we had a cool start to May back in 2012?  Only two weeks ago it was looking like 2018 repeat now its looking like a 2012 repeat.  Uk weather will do what it pleases so anything can change.  

Hello ,we can otter expect  a repeat of last year ,not really! Different synoptics  , 1975,1976 was a classic year for heat and drought,  this summer expect lots of thunderstorms...:gathering:

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Posted (edited)

A very encouraging trend over the last two days from the EPS mean anomaly. the quite intense vortex/trough effecting western Europe is forecast to weaken and slip south into the eastern Mediterranean  This allows the subtropical high to ridge in the vicinity of the UK which results in the upper flow backing and diverging to the north . Portending a more settle spell with temps around average

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This evening's NOAA in the same ball park

814day_03.thumb.gif.820173f87cfc97f8372ec64ba924dfe8.gif

Edited by knocker

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3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening All! The British weather keeps us on our toes, , This May bank holiday may well see record lows .and a Horrible start to May... cold wet and windy..

h850t850eu-9.png

Sigh.... you keep going on about record lows yet you do not say what these are or suggest what the minima could be. Though Friday will be cold it is not record breaking and Sunday and Monday may not even be too bad. You make every cold spell sound a lot more dramatic then what it actually is... I don't think anyone will put down April's bitterly cold easterly in their meteorological highlights.

Cold yes but not exceptional, May 1996 and 1997 had colder spells. The colder output for next week on the GFS has eased but there remains some uncertainty about what happens after the mid-week low moves from west to east.

Finally the cold over Europe isn't representative of the global picture and some more exceptionally mild weather in the arctic alongside this northern blocking.

image.thumb.png.1901a2d8c12cb71ccd0e2a2df43c7388.png  

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Posted (edited)

Excuse me folks, did I fall asleep for the last 3 months and miss summer?? Because Reading some of the posts tonight, I'm beginning to think I did!! Talk about over analizing every single model run, doing that is good for one thing... Raising your blood pressure!! How can anyone say the pattern is locked in for 3 weeks at a time, if you can show me a model that guarantees the forecast for this time frame, then, please frame it... Has it will make you potentially rich!! Please folks it's May 1st.....summer is nearly 5 weeks away... Please get a grip and take some paracetamol, or kalms, whatever takes ya fancy!! 

Its actually May the 2nd.....dohhhhh, what's a day between friends.... ūüėČ

Edited by Mattwolves

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Hello ,we can otter expect  a repeat of last year ,not really! Different synoptics  , 1975,1976 was a classic year for heat and drought,  this summer expect lots of thunderstorms...:gathering:

May 1975 was cold, wet and windy -- the following summer was hot and thundery. And, not even you know what the synoptics will be, in six-weeks' time!

Edited by Ed Stone

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Posted (edited)

Overview - cold air is in the process of flooding south into Europe until  the beginning of next week when it will be replaced by more unsettled weather from the Atlantic.Indications are that this will also be brought to a halt by a weakening of the European trough and amplification of the subtropical high as seen by the GEFS and last evening's the EPS and NOAA.

9-14.thumb.png.55800b2db8940cdc7b39ba3d64af01c5.png

The European 850mb temp anomaly for today and the Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UTC UK chart

gfs-eur-t850_anom_1day-6928000.thumb.png.f1ca6368c579a08d59ba89efb4dd5b84.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.61fb37ed0fe94d5b4b5dd5d53279e7af.gif03.thumb.gif.1b5a324c2010f63314f1c1ebd7b48074.gif

As can be seen the colder air behind the cold front is already over Scotland and this will progress south along with the front. This also applies to the band of rain, currently over the north of England and N. Ireland. South of the front it will remain quite warm and showers will start pop up during the afternoon, some quite heavy. In the now established northerly flow showers will also be an issue over Scotland and north east coastal regions and these will far more wintry with snow on the higher ground.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.ff020bafef5c99008e2378e621ed480c.gif1274510421_maxfr.thumb.png.c902975900f49e393fcc8c8220027a71.pngp16.thumb.png.e46e2e30f07d2c22e124850722fb9ceb.png

Overnight the showers will tend to concentrated over the north of Scotland and down North Sea coasts, where the odd trough will be embedded in the flow in the quite strong wind, and again these will be of the wintry variety with some snow down to quite low levels. A cold night generally with a widespread ground frost

PPVG89.thumb.gif.718b339cd441f42440d76449e9abc292.gif1393965845_minsat.thumb.png.8513f6ccd349c94baec975ea9f7d4e08.pngp03.thumb.png.1d721d93fad944e4b6ffd8bdc459a0b4.png

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Saturday essentially a day of two halves. Cold generally but feeling colder in the east where the wind will still be quite fresh and it is in this region and the north where the showers will be concentrated and again they will be wintry with hail and thunder thrown in

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Another cold day on Sunday but less windy and still some showers around in the east and over Wales and the south west and the additional complication of another cold front sneaking south into Scotland.later.

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The weakening cold front will continue to slide south on Monday accompanied by showery rain and showers in it's wake which again will be wintry. Perhaps not quite so cold further south after another frosty start but still below normal

PPVM89.thumb.gif.a4cf27bce8b11b2871a86e9d453bb009.gif1959464742_rainmon.thumb.png.06d1adead3b9bb566a334e2591150109.png42366039_maxmon.thumb.png.2b26b35cd38db52c59e9400fb8619030.png

The transition mentioned earlier is underway on Tuesday as fronts associated with a complex low pressure area to the south west bring rain and strengthening winds into much of the country through the day. Still a cold day and very much so in Scotland.

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Edited by knocker

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So we are now well into next phase and for the rest of the week, including next weekend unsettled weather with showers, longer periods of rain, perhaps sometimes windy, but interspersed with a fair bit of sunshine. In essence dominated by the upper trough Temps still a tad below normal but trending up

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7403200.thumb.png.4e5cc24d4488eafeef8818e48dd696e3.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7576000.thumb.png.530351120f94c1444673f20bf886140c.pnggfs-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-7705600.thumb.png.778dc8c2d745ba24e4129ceeaabe84f2.png

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The ecm has rain coming in from the south west through Tuesday and overnight into Wednesday when at midday it has a low  980mb south of the Lizard. so a wet and windy day for most,  Twenty four hours later the low is filling in the North Sea so sunshine and showers. By midday Friday the country under the umbrella of a trough so again sunshine and showers. Temps still below average, particularly in Scotland Tues/Weds

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Warming-up from the south (eventually) according to the GFS 00Z::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.86f06aaa6759be901fe46f00e27dfa00.pngimage.thumb.png.490ae2f7bbf85f250ca0c468f61f7a18.png

FV3 agrees: image.thumb.png.6acfe5c0c5d12048d845940ba9a796cb.png image.thumb.png.d7fd58836a9aa7db8979887cf0ccee12.png

So does the temperature ensemble: image.thumb.png.8822c81279a7de7b4daa804e62e77d2b.png

And there's a lovely rain-spike, for EA! image.thumb.png.81522fac32a8d6d72cbd78230367aac4.png:oldgood:

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The portends are good from the Ecm 00z ensemble mean longer term yet again!ūüĎć

EDM1-216.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

giphy (2).gif

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The portends are not so good on the ukmo 0h @ T+144 hours!ūüėĀ

UW144-21.gif

F1E4CD7A-ED68-496F-9C37-A166975CEDAA.gif.b4e6f22aad13edd1c74905175d85f0e3.gif

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Posted (edited)

The portends are still encouraging from the GEFS 00z longer term with an indication of less troughs and more ridging / high pressure in the vicinity of the uk.

GFSAVGEU00_234_1.png

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GFSP04EU00_378_1.png

GFSP05EU00_378_1.png

Edited by Frosty.

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That's a very important portent, Karl...it's an important portent of potentially important potential!:oldgrin:

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ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

Bit of a switch around from the models regarding enthusiasm for the CCKW making it right across the Pacific to drive a good Euro-Scandi height rise response (as detailed in Tamara's excellent update a few days ago). EPS much more so than GEFS.

So not surprising to see ECM looking more promising than GFS as of D10 for a build of much warmer, drier weather after the very unsettled interlude next week.

Hopefully GEFS is having one of its 'moments'; it seems to have a thing for wandering convection in the Pacific. Generally, having EPS showing the desirable outcome is more encouraging than when it's GEFS.

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Posted (edited)

So it's a coldish bank holiday period to come, especially up North. Plenty of dry conditions around, especially Western areas, not so dandy further N/E. Things looking very unsettled next week, but ECM does show signs of improvement beyond a week, and GFS still showing a major change back to settled conditions come mid month! A summer of plumes beckons... Hopefully! 

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Edited by Mapantz

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Please keep climate change discussions to the relevant threads, please?!¬†ūüėÄ

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Let's hope this one comes off (it won't!); 17-18C with slow-moving heavy, thundery showers!:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.d406a291a600b2fc772f46e8b73d5261.pngimage.thumb.png.b5f538226ac250363a9e0bd18e2e158f.png 

 

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CFS really showing high pressure taking a foothold by the 13th of May! And it's looking much better towards mid month.. ūüĎć

cfs-0-240.png

cfs-0-264.png

cfs-0-300.png

cfs-0-324.png

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11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

CFS really showing high pressure taking a foothold by the 13th of May! And it's looking much better towards mid month.. ūüĎć

cfs-0-240.png

cfs-0-264.png

cfs-0-300.png

cfs-0-324.png

See! knew you guys could find better charts for my holiday¬† ūüôā¬†

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Posted (edited)

The 6z operational portends slightly warmer rain at the end of next week / start of following week.ūüĎć

06_234_mslp850.png

06_234_mslp500.png

 

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Edited by Frosty.

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We are certainly paying for that 4 or 5 day mini heatwave at Easter!

Could be forgiven for thinking its mid November round here lately!

EC looks OK by day 10, GFS6Z is just disgusting.

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

We are certainly paying for that 4 or 5 day mini heatwave at Easter!

Could be forgiven for thinking its mid November round here lately!

EC looks OK by day 10, GFS6Z is just disgusting.

Yes nws, good point, this month perhaps a tale of two halves! I've come across a few quotes saying the chances of a repeat of last summer or persistent heat are a little lower due to the atmosphere looking a little more chaotic, but perhaps good for very warm spells followed by thundery rinse and repeat episodes.... And that will sure to please many. 

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