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The weather for the holiday weekend has been exercising a few minds of late and I'm not sure we are any nearer pinning down the detail this morning. Essentially it's all about the movement of the Atlantic trough and the associated surface features.

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-8796400.thumb.png.4768830dd21926a01fc6b181ff8249ad.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-8882800.thumb.png.f2517646681249e464f6e4e3434452f7.png

So according to the gfs Saturday is a day of sunshine and showers with a warm front bringing rain to N. Ireland western Scotland by evening. The front will track east overnight and through Sunday bringing rain and quite strong winds to most areas. This will clear on Monday but there is now a shallow low over the north so a showery and quite windy day. But to reiterate, this is a very long way from being set in stone

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Despite some of the doom and gloom predictions about this week it's actually not looking bad for most of this week, there will be plenty of sunshine, a few heavy showers dotted around today but the risk of showers then decreases for a few days and with light winds and the very strong late May sunshine the temperatures will really respond, into the high teens to low 20's celsius, taking London as an example, somewhere around 20 / 21c this week give or take a degree or two..nae bad!😁

Edited by Frosty.
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The ecm has the waving front bringing rain to N. Ireland and western Scotland by midday Saturday This tracks east, mainly north of a line north Wales > Wash, and clears into the north Sea by midday Sunday. The cold front following on will clear the south east by same time leaving a residue of showers. By midday Monday another front is bringing rain to western regions,

t138.thumb.png.8d87451f231d316201be91221a2149f9.pngt144.thumb.png.83438eea915ee5f7a45bd39bd52f1c37.pngt150.thumb.png.45a62cc4ba6bad2e71758272a5f022d3.png

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Despite some of the doom and gloom predictions about this week it's actually not looking bad for most of this week, there will be plenty of sunshine, a few heavy showers dotted around today but the risk of showers then decreases for a few days and with light winds and the very strong late May sunshine the temperatures will really respond, into the high teens to low 20's celsius, taking London as an example, somewhere around 20 / 21c this week give or take a degree or two..nae bad!😁

It's an ok-ish week. Temperatures around 18-20c are actually only average for this time of the year in the SE, so nothing too amazing, but better than of late I guess. Weather remaining very slow moving for the time being.

Perhaps hints of a foundation to something better into June, with a real collapse in polar heights from today to day 10 on this mornings ECM:

image.thumb.png.a0c1bb9f1c51cb6ec9fefba0e9296059.png

image.thumb.png.45cf1c8e9b72936be8a4159e1e530030.png

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If I'm really honest, I can't see precisely where this morning's 00Z is headed; other than that there's no sign of either protracted heat or persistent cold::cc_confused:

image.thumb.png.d87c23c5926c432ba9627933198cc3d6.pngimage.thumb.png.82209daf838f2ba80e991659b2ae4f7f.png 

 

The FV3 (wonderful model) has this towards its end, however::yahoo:

image.thumb.png.31902d3c3d91576f2b68688ab70ecc3b.pngimage.thumb.png.b7ee07ce31e2c2e7a76994d974bd5371.png

 

But, despite the over-all rise in SLP, the ensembles don't engender much in the way of unparalleled excitement, either:💤

image.thumb.png.704519579689289c8480b59689134137.pngimage.thumb.png.4e4751b4859e2524b9116260499cc888.png 

Edited by Ed Stone
grammer
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The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is nae bad, plenty of ridging this week means plenty of fine and warm weather after today's showers, a bit more unsettled later but the azores high looks poised at T+240!👍

EDM1-120.GIF

EDM1-144.GIF

EDM1-216.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.
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I cannae see anything bad about the ukmo 0h run..nothing nasty lurking in the woodshed!👍😜

UW96-21.gif

UW96-7.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

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Thursday should be quite a good day:

image.thumb.png.3f7d336609646f566ce48fd7c884048a.pngimage.thumb.png.6b1048678d976cd55b11b6f9873960a7.png :oldgood:

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17 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I have to say I find this chart from the GFS at T210 bizarre, in that not likely to happen, 

image.thumb.jpg.7fdea9dff554767dd97c947113f0ea2f.jpg

Is that low really likely to sit there for that long?  If the Atlantic really is that weak then when the ridge does finally make it here, it might be here for some time?

no?

this doesnt look very inspiring if it was to become reality

 

814day.03.gif

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Looking at UKMO we have some heavy showers developing today and tomorrow mainly in Scotland and down the eastern side of England

Mid week sees a lull with plenty of sunshine on Wednesday with temps around 15c to 20c the one exception to the sunshine looks to be northern Scotland where rain remains likely

Thursday and Friday look mostly dry with temps again 15c to 20c the odd isolated shower can't be ruled 

Saturday and more especially Sunday could see a greater chance of widespread showers as low pressure moves in

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I cannae see much wrong with the extended GEFS 00z mean, it doesni look bad to me!!👍😜...oops that's cos it's yesterdays 6z mean but apart from that I got it right!😉

GFSAVGEU06_384_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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