Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

Recommended Posts

The weather for the holiday weekend has been exercising a few minds of late and I'm not sure we are any nearer pinning down the detail this morning. Essentially it's all about the movement of the Atlantic trough and the associated surface features.

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-8796400.thumb.png.4768830dd21926a01fc6b181ff8249ad.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-8882800.thumb.png.f2517646681249e464f6e4e3434452f7.png

So according to the gfs Saturday is a day of sunshine and showers with a warm front bringing rain to N. Ireland western Scotland by evening. The front will track east overnight and through Sunday bringing rain and quite strong winds to most areas. This will clear on Monday but there is now a shallow low over the north so a showery and quite windy day. But to reiterate, this is a very long way from being set in stone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Despite some of the doom and gloom predictions about this week it's actually not looking bad for most of this week, there will be plenty of sunshine, a few heavy showers dotted around today but the risk of showers then decreases for a few days and with light winds and the very strong late May sunshine the temperatures will really respond, into the high teens to low 20's celsius, taking London as an example, somewhere around 20 / 21c this week give or take a degree or two..nae bad!😁

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ecm has the waving front bringing rain to N. Ireland and western Scotland by midday Saturday This tracks east, mainly north of a line north Wales > Wash, and clears into the north Sea by midday Sunday. The cold front following on will clear the south east by same time leaving a residue of showers. By midday Monday another front is bringing rain to western regions,

t138.thumb.png.8d87451f231d316201be91221a2149f9.pngt144.thumb.png.83438eea915ee5f7a45bd39bd52f1c37.pngt150.thumb.png.45a62cc4ba6bad2e71758272a5f022d3.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Despite some of the doom and gloom predictions about this week it's actually not looking bad for most of this week, there will be plenty of sunshine, a few heavy showers dotted around today but the risk of showers then decreases for a few days and with light winds and the very strong late May sunshine the temperatures will really respond, into the high teens to low 20's celsius, taking London as an example, somewhere around 20 / 21c this week give or take a degree or two..nae bad!😁

It's an ok-ish week. Temperatures around 18-20c are actually only average for this time of the year in the SE, so nothing too amazing, but better than of late I guess. Weather remaining very slow moving for the time being.

Perhaps hints of a foundation to something better into June, with a real collapse in polar heights from today to day 10 on this mornings ECM:

image.thumb.png.a0c1bb9f1c51cb6ec9fefba0e9296059.png

image.thumb.png.45cf1c8e9b72936be8a4159e1e530030.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

If I'm really honest, I can't see precisely where this morning's 00Z is headed; other than that there's no sign of either protracted heat or persistent cold::cc_confused:

image.thumb.png.d87c23c5926c432ba9627933198cc3d6.pngimage.thumb.png.82209daf838f2ba80e991659b2ae4f7f.png 

 

The FV3 (wonderful model) has this towards its end, however::yahoo:

image.thumb.png.31902d3c3d91576f2b68688ab70ecc3b.pngimage.thumb.png.b7ee07ce31e2c2e7a76994d974bd5371.png

 

But, despite the over-all rise in SLP, the ensembles don't engender much in the way of unparalleled excitement, either:💤

image.thumb.png.704519579689289c8480b59689134137.pngimage.thumb.png.4e4751b4859e2524b9116260499cc888.png 

Edited by Ed Stone
grammer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is nae bad, plenty of ridging this week means plenty of fine and warm weather after today's showers, a bit more unsettled later but the azores high looks poised at T+240!👍

EDM1-120.GIF

EDM1-144.GIF

EDM1-216.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I cannae see anything bad about the ukmo 0h run..nothing nasty lurking in the woodshed!👍😜

UW96-21.gif

UW96-7.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thursday should be quite a good day:

image.thumb.png.3f7d336609646f566ce48fd7c884048a.pngimage.thumb.png.6b1048678d976cd55b11b6f9873960a7.png :oldgood:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I have to say I find this chart from the GFS at T210 bizarre, in that not likely to happen, 

image.thumb.jpg.7fdea9dff554767dd97c947113f0ea2f.jpg

Is that low really likely to sit there for that long?  If the Atlantic really is that weak then when the ridge does finally make it here, it might be here for some time?

no?

this doesnt look very inspiring if it was to become reality

 

814day.03.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at UKMO we have some heavy showers developing today and tomorrow mainly in Scotland and down the eastern side of England

Mid week sees a lull with plenty of sunshine on Wednesday with temps around 15c to 20c the one exception to the sunshine looks to be northern Scotland where rain remains likely

Thursday and Friday look mostly dry with temps again 15c to 20c the odd isolated shower can't be ruled 

Saturday and more especially Sunday could see a greater chance of widespread showers as low pressure moves in

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I cannae see much wrong with the extended GEFS 00z mean, it doesni look bad to me!!👍😜...oops that's cos it's yesterdays 6z mean but apart from that I got it right!😉

GFSAVGEU06_384_1.png

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I cannae see much wrong with the extended GEFS 00z mean, it doesni look bad to me!!👍😜...oops that's cos it's yesterdays 6z mean but apart from that I got it right!😉

GFSAVGEU06_384_1.png

Temps, in the South, hold-up quite well for at least a week?:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.dd62c34a90eabc47c3b0df2ccee26e90.pngimage.thumb.png.06697f044d0982f564ed68d10093cb25.png 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And it ends well. Very well. Very, very, very well!:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.1cc42244b3c2206449c1135362a0e942.pngimage.thumb.png.4babad9ce864b4872bd96d74ce7b531f.png 

My message to HLB is this: 🖕

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

 I cannae see much wrong with the Gem 0z either..can't see where the gloom and doom is coming from really, the south is barely affected!!!!👍

gem-0-132.png

gem-1-132.png

gem-0-156.png

gem-1-156.png

gem-0-180.png

gem-0-228.png

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

 I cannae see much wrong with the Gem 0z either..can't see where the gloom and doom is coming from really, the south is barely affected!!!!👍

The ECM 00Zop also has chilly polar maritime air spilling across the uk until the 24th May and again after the 28th.  Some of us aren't in the South.

Temps for Cheshire this week are showing mid teens and cloudy while London is getting the low 20s all week so nothing really to get excited about if your a northerner looking for sun and warmth.    

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Decent outlook for the South now. Less so further north, but that is situation normal.

Average conditions, which in May is pleasant in the South East. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Some of us aren't in the South.

 

But plenty are in the south, I was talking to them if you don't mind!!!😜

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

But plenty are in the south, I was talking to them if you don't mind!!!😜

A much better-looking end to the FV3. Stonking model! All we need now, is quasi-stationary, north-south-orientated Atlantic trough to form?

image.thumb.png.7d8fea790a90ff9ee373473c7a8b2c0c.pngimage.thumb.png.d86adf6cbe85c9bc8f9587a8edb77745.png 👍

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

06Z ensembles still suggesting an over-all warm-up late on -- just around the time the SLP charts go haywire:

image.thumb.png.e840b710428c62ae7cb98747030b49e6.pngimage.thumb.png.7f0cb2296e29899486b6b545f630e21a.png 

But, as the UKMet point-out, in their long-range forecast: there are no strong signals, going forward?:oldgood:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes indeed Pete, no strong signals, but talk of the Atlantic remaining quite subdued, which would implie, perhaps longer settled spells when they get a foothold! Could we be looking at a more balanced summer this year.. More typical as regards to high pressure bringing plenty of settled Conditions to the south, but more mixed further North!! I can understand those up North being a little peeved with current conditions.... Just stick with it, you will get some decent weather before long.. 👍

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sat image at 1230 UTC. Some nice cells in the north east

sat.thumb.JPG.4ef810e70b4d042ba3627637bd0302ac.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Strong signs of summer in the extended GEFS 6z with less green slime to worry about!!!👍

GFSAVGEU06_366_1.png

GFSP01EU06_366_1.png

GFSP05EU06_366_1.png

GFSP06EU06_366_1.png

GFSP07EU06_366_1.png

GFSP08EU06_366_2.png

GFSP13EU06_366_1.png

GFSP18EU06_366_1.png

GFSP18EU06_366_2.png

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, 38.5*C said:

The ECM 00Zop also has chilly polar maritime air spilling across the uk until the 24th May and again after the 28th.  Some of us aren't in the South.

Temps for Cheshire this week are showing mid teens and cloudy while London is getting the low 20s all week so nothing really to get excited about if your a northerner looking for sun and warmth.    

That’s a surprise 😂 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bank Holiday Sun is always welcome - but it's so bone dry here even in West Lancashire - the River Ribble can be easily waded across in some areas (not that I recommend it!)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

For most of june the cfs 0z is absolutely vile💩 but it then improves in early july!!!!👍😜

cfs-0-1020.png

cfs-0-1044.png

cfs-0-1068.png

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...