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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

To complete the round up as at T144 here is GEM:

image.thumb.jpg.8f6904e5d64074f3bd72df700acd060b.jpg

and GFS, and jet stream:

image.thumb.jpg.9ad099c992bf8f4e88aa60c1f9041c42.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.4b64d270ddff69d079014cefbf3d4b1b.jpg

We seem to have gone from uncertainty about everything to a cross model consensus since I was posting last night.  Roll on summer...🍺

Good post Mike, I did mention earlier that I thought the 0z ECM was perhaps closer to the mark regarding high pressure, and this is what I felt all along, perhaps high pressure ridging in more than some folk are expecting. This so called showery spell we are supposed to be in right now as brought no measurable rainfall here at all... Like you say, I think things are looking up. 

Edited by Mattwolves

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I thought we might escape, but, no: that southbound grollie does have our name on it, after all!🤮

image.thumb.png.eec120b1d37306a2ba6a4f8077e5b109.pngimage.thumb.png.00db02360c9a1cd11086b67a64e59e23.png 

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Posted (edited)

The FV3 12z is showing another ridge building in on the last day of spring!!!..great model!!😁:shok:

GFSPARAEU12_288_1.png

Edited by Frosty.

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I have to say I find this chart from the GFS at T210 bizarre, in that not likely to happen, 

image.thumb.jpg.7fdea9dff554767dd97c947113f0ea2f.jpg

Is that low really likely to sit there for that long?  If the Atlantic really is that weak then when the ridge does finally make it here, it might be here for some time?

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I can't believe what I'm reading on here... To many folks following computer models.... 😉😂

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Posted (edited)

And it's all clear at the end!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.7148b8a6902fd8f47e9a0ff4dc516bff.pngimage.thumb.png.6124bd4b41fa8b9473c00df6cbf26c36.png More runs needed?:oldgood:

Edited by Ed Stone

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Posted (edited)

Scream......

image.thumb.jpg.498a8dfc280c79690b9527bc2c626fb0.jpg

GFS T276.

Seriously though, I think this model run lost the plot many frames ago.  It is interesting watching the models at the moment, because while towards a warm settled spell looks the destination, it's not clear whether we get there by road, rail, sea or sheer bloody-minded posting in here!

 

Edited by Mike Poole

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5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Scream.........

 

I was going to but then I saw this from the reliable FV3!!..nae bad 👍😜

munch1.png

GFSPARAEU12_288_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_312_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_324_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_336_2.png

GFSPARAEU12_336_17.png

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Dont worry about GFS at 276hrs guys, check out CFS at 276hrs!!! Ruddy wonderful.... I'm sure CFS used to be a furniture company you no!!! 😉😜

cfs-0-276.png

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Dont worry about GFS at 276hrs guys, check out CFS at 276hrs!!! Ruddy wonderful.... I'm sure CFS used to be a furniture company you no!!! 😉😜

cfs-0-276.png

Think that's DFS mate?  Known for always having a sale.  Bit like the CFS come to think of it!

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Just now, Mike Poole said:

Think that's DFS mate?  Known for always having a sale.  Bit like the CFS come to think of it!

It is Mike... I was joking, but I was actually thinking of SCS... 😂

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Posted (edited)

The GEFS 12z mean shows real improvement into early June..it really does!!👍🌞

GFSAVGEU12_270_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_294_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_318_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_342_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_360_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_384_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_384_2.png

Edited by Frosty.

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FV3 shows a potential thundery breakdown. Brilliant model!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.93879c1a618cd9bba281cb704feb969b.pngimage.thumb.png.b63521477918c5c84988cba6367506ed.png 

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12z keeps the Northerlies coming and just looks awful to as May draws to a close and going into first week of June, Daytime maxes really struggling to get into double digits. Very mediocre for this time of year if it were to come off.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

12z keeps the Northerlies coming and just looks awful too as May draws to a close and going into the first week of June.

It's only awful if you conveniently gloss over the decent warm weather for a time during the week ahead and then the improvement into early June shown on the GEFS 12z mean with the azores high ridging / building in!!👍

Edited by Frosty.

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Apart from a short dire snap around May 30, and a few random back-end stonkers, the ensemble is much of a muchness:

image.thumb.png.c185ff7004e12716b39df453b8c47cd9.pngimage.thumb.png.861b4775555ad9459da59340060b9065.png 

And still an upward trend, in air pressure, post May 28.:oldgood:

 

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Posted (edited)

The Ecm 12z certainly doesn't scream unsettled out to T+168 hours, there's actually some decent pleasantly warm weather indicated with sunny spells, some showers but hardly a washout!👍 

ECM1-48.gif

ECM1-72.gif

ECM1-120.gif

ECM1-144.gif

ECM1-168.gif

ECM0-168.gif

Edited by Frosty.

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A snapshot of the weekend with the ecm

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-8872000.thumb.png.cd0b768f343ad651b69830e192edaa44.png

1996308701_rainsat.thumb.png.234749b201562fe0db455054da0023ce.png575107328_rainsun.thumb.png.28d95aca8fb6baf0d8a538a38c3292c3.png1209309330_rainmon.thumb.png.115a490da922f1ee6a0dc5eae0236d08.png

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Posted (edited)

It gets a bit more unsettled beyond day 7 but mainly for the north, the south not doing too badly!👍..a bit of 💩 polish always helps.😜..day 10 looks better!!😁

ECM1-192.gif

ECM1-216.gif

ECM1-240.gif

Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)
59 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

12z keeps the Northerlies coming and just looks awful to as May draws to a close and going into first week of June, Daytime maxes really struggling to get into double digits. Very mediocre for this time of year if it were to come off.

I think you should read Karl's aka Frosty post above has regards to the 12z mean... Showing signs of big improvement!! So I'm not sure where your getting this dreadful forecast from.... 

Its relatively simple for us to get double digit temps in winter, so I would have thought struggling to make double digits in june is a little overstated! 

Edited by Mattwolves

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4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I would have thought struggling to make double digits in june is a little overstated! 

Indeed, even nights are usually above 10c in june..daytime..nae problem 👍😁

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

I think you should read Karl's aka Frosty post above has regards to the 12z mean... Showing signs of big improvement!! So I'm not sure where your getting this dreadful forecast from.... 

Its relatively simple for us to get double digit temps in winter, so I would have thought struggling to make double digits in june is a little overstated! 

If there is going to be any significant change in our fortunes I think it will pop almost out of nowhere in the 3 to 5 day range. Considering how May has turned out so far for warmth I think the 12z shouldn't be completely ignored

 

Edited by 38.5*C

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For the most part tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is ok, there's some fine and warm weather, a few showers and then maybe a bit more unsettled for a time but by day 10 the azores high is lurking with intent!👍

EDM1-240.GIF

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The NH 500mb profile and the North Atlantic surface analysis for midnight

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8310400.thumb.png.2d81c3dd201c938e80a9b9701095436b.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.cc445c647e6e32a8152f5fd59a8da90a.gif

The mist/Stratus along eastern coastal regions may be slow to clear this morning but elsewhere in England and Wales any patches will clear quite quickly.  Here a sunny day will develop with the odd shower popping up but the showery rain currently effecting N. Ireland and northern Scotland will continue through the morning and during the afternoon heavier outbursts, accompanied by thunder will effect NE Scotland, courtesy of the trough lying down that region. Simultaneously outbreaks may occur along the convergence zone down eastern England.Thus quite a temp spread NW/SE

PPVE89.thumb.gif.3d6fba35fd2950b60793402a764f18ee.gif65574144_maxmo.thumb.png.ae23a2cbc2ed63b3f1e41da56aee44c8.pngp10.thumb.png.4d0718fe22d780025749d224d0d3c54f.pngp13.thumb.png.bfac5ee3ea3b25ed67c81b96787e8940.pngp16.thumb.png.45970db9d90c75fab0930dbe991dcd61.pngp19.thumb.png.7d4e1b5cffa04cf36cbb15da8f8add4d.png

The trough hangs around northern Scotland through the evening and overnight and the showers may well coalesce to give longer periods of rain. Further south they will die out to give a clear night with the odd fog patch forming by morning.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.deb230effe67f0f119d460a3f3ff7149.gifp23.thumb.png.a20c14da02e6ebda30bc7c952ce5a9f4.pngp04.thumb.png.186e2ac531249e6f1209cf10877a5aaa.png

Tomorrow a weak 'tongue' of high pressure resides over the country and once the early fog/mist has cleared a fine sunny day will ensue in many areas and getting quite warm in the south east. But the trough is still around over Scotland and quite frequent and heavy thundery showers will develop here during the day.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.1d239bedc1a685d58022d987b4ab5e56.gif40645346_maxtues.thumb.png.2c126b7553962effff203a85c287bd73.pngr11.thumb.png.bc278b713c7bcd22bba373a4d182410a.pngr14.thumb.png.5c17e4dd62b29a0cb6fd3ef5c5b37489.pngr18.thumb.png.31e5f1b024f10318dd57881fc7908ec9.png

The tongue still happily ensconced on Wednesday and apart from the odd shower still in the north east early on as the trough is reluctant to depart, a generally warm and sunny day

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.fca95fcad37d3f17e5fdd795eb17ff3a.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.3135ce5da27dd62cf4b8078094d51ce0.gif15289061_maxwed.thumb.png.bfdf5adb69499e564c81e3760879f976.png

By Thursday the change that has been covered in previous posts is underway and a waving front encroaching from the west will bring rain to western regions whilst elsewhere will remain sunny and quite pleasant

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-8612800.thumb.png.33f5b545df2f387763b6cf4504da8898.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.ff1de06e893b11079a053fe257899939.gif

1229511241_rainth.thumb.png.d0b75aa7149a4def428a819e8c95ecc3.png1839894692_maxth.thumb.png.723bfa236fd8f1857e847cbbb4c5cbcc.png

By Friday the occlusion has stalled over western regions and there are complications involving the trough to the north east so mixed bag sort of day with with sunny intervals and showers, perhaps heavy with thunder in the mix, and even longer periods of rain.

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-8699200.thumb.png.a85d9c199a68a094e80abf8560de1c88.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.f1cac4554cbd6f30b5e29b9535f96b80.gif

835143254_rainfr.thumb.png.d9f4127ef8d606f89a48eba7d34b8a96.png1484324736_maxfr.thumb.png.69fd0c7e2aa55f074c48b090c3c78f88.png

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