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GFS 12z at T240:

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image.thumb.jpg.a6482ea55e5f04d1aefd0c29a09888b2.jpg

A push of the jet stream to the north, as the ridge from the Azores edges in?

 

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Posted (edited)

It starts to get more unsettled by the middle of next week as another trough is ejected into the western Atlantic courtesy of amplification in the eastern Pacific and the trough in the south west US. This promotes a shallow surface low and associated fronts into western regions of Britain  by midday Thursday. This turns into quite a complex area with two centres but after bringing rain on Friday and showers Saturday it should start clearing the mainland through Sunday. According to the gfs/

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8526400.thumb.png.3d43ecdc4c4959020c37035e3ffc54a1.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-8612800.thumb.png.5d0b5074876583080bec0f5aa1008379.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-8850400.thumb.png.708a6fd10435906f459febecdfadf71e.png

Edited by knocker

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The Gem 12z got stuck at this point..to avoid inflicting any more pain!!:girl_devil:💩😁

gem-0-222.png

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GEFS mean at T288 looking like an increasing number of runs that are pushing a ridge from the Azores towards us.  This is so much the direction of travel - let's travel there!

image.thumb.jpg.d04efc870b6cc5b4b5ab11e096f3ebf2.jpg

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

GEFS mean at T288 looking like an increasing number of runs that are pushing a ridge from the Azores towards us.  This is so much the direction of travel - let's travel there!

image.thumb.jpg.d04efc870b6cc5b4b5ab11e096f3ebf2.jpg

Absolutely, the earlier Ecm mean showed the azores ridge / high lurking with intent at T+240 hours and would probably have improved further as the GEFS mean shows.👍

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I wish someone would hurry-up and put the FV3 out of its misery...Useless model!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.5a2187981ee7711803e555595516e13c.pngimage.thumb.png.666352929e871f00dc9f69cfbda4e673.png :shok:

Hang on, what have we here:image.thumb.png.72547f5ed0ccd8da4d5c37dde56b039d.pngimage.thumb.png.9cfaff4a6f1d43cc2b3f5ff513bcd7e1.png

Yep. Useless! image.thumb.png.49a2736ad5dc9679137db7a6934e4c54.pngimage.thumb.png.296b1080ec523f8454386b5b5115cdc2.png:oldgrin:

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Posted (edited)

Good finish to the GEFS 12z mean with a decent ridge in place..that could actually mean a strong anticyclone building in for the end of spring / start of summer!👍

GFSAVGEU12_384_1.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)

Some nice options on the table for the start of summer with a mean like this!🌞👍

GFSAVGEU12_384_1.png

GFSP02EU12_384_1.png

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GFSP14EU12_384_1.png

GFSP19EU12_384_1.png

GFSP20EU12_384_1.png

GFSP20EU12_384_2.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Indeed, Karl: the 12Z ensembles has options aplenty!

image.thumb.png.0abd02a0237192dd76388f869cc25a8f.pngimage.thumb.png.523f7e5320c9a2b81f7b780cf7a2b788.png Even rain!:oldgood:

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The ecm has frontal rain into western regions by midday Thursday But by midday Friday the upper trough is pretty much neutrally tilted over the UK as the subtropical high amplifies to the west.The main surface low over France and I would imagine a very showery day for the UK. Showers and sunny intervals remain the order of the day over the weekend, with, hopefully strarting to die out by Sunday, as the ridge/trough nudge slowly east. The detail for the weekend a long way from settled

t144.thumb.png.54491b109668e33e1a0435ff9e7ceb06.pngt168.thumb.png.f1b8b571a1d08d4fcaf29343d24bd613.pngt192.thumb.png.afb131c4a221815035411154c0aba7fb.png

 

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Posted (edited)

Amazing thing about the Ecm 12z is how that green snot is attracted to the uk like a fly to sh..💩😁

Edited by Frosty.

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

The Gem 12z got stuck at this point..to avoid inflicting any more pain!!:girl_devil:💩😁

gem-0-222.png

I think you’re right lol!

It did seem quite promising at 144 hours on that 12Z GEM (which would, as you mention in an earlier post), settle things down a bit, especially for Southern areas. That Azores High trying to have a race with that Western Atlantic Low/trough to see who can reach the U.K first! 

1AF98075-67BB-4486-806A-799A23120845.thumb.png.ee66646e2ed9f0db969805527207ba98.png

But the ending for the Azores High was certainly not good. And the trough won! For those who want some very warm and dry weather, then could do with that bad guy disappearing. 

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Great for those wanting something cool and showery. While it’s a feasible solution and has some (not full) support from the 12Z GEFS ensembles, things can change a lot at that time-frame. Things could still turn out to be less disturbed than that. Clearly as some suggest, though, next week could still be pleasant in the sunny spells between the showers and rain, and still be Spring-like.

The 12Z ECMWF, which has just about finished rolling out, shows a trough (greens colours) getting cut off over the U.K/Southern U.K at 144 hours with the Azores High amplifying in the Atlantic linking up with High Pressure over Greenland. Quite unsettled for the U.K, and probably not particularly warm. 

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Such a devil! 

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Posted (edited)

ECM 12z still got a while to go, T240:

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But should get there in the end....I still think this will settle down into a largely high pressure  dominated  summer, we will see.

Edited by Mike Poole

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The ECM is getting as unpredictable as the GFS... utter garbage run towards the latter frames, with cool crud and probably showers stuck over us.. High pressure yet again in the wrong place.... Roll on june... 

ECM1-168.gif

ECM1-192.gif

ECM1-240 (1).gif

ECM0-240.gif

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Posted (edited)

At least we can see the funny side of it... or is it just me!!:shok:💩

Anyway, there is actually some fine and warm weather on the Ecm 12z before the green plague arrives with a vengeance later...but in reality it would just be sunshine and showers..as we have this weekend!!👍

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Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM 12z still got a while to go, T249::

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image.thumb.jpg.091f2a55a94ecda1593e70633d4b3ae7.jpg

But should get there in the end....I still think this will settle down into a largely high pressure  dominated  summer, we will see.

I think that’s the thing really. Although the models may not look too inspiring for the warm/hot and settled weather enthusiasts, it doesn’t really mean this current changeable pattern will last into Summer and beyond. Not impossible, but I suppose it’ll be fascinating to see how things continue to develop! 🌤 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Adding to post slightly

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19 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The ECM is getting as unpredictable as the GFS... utter garbage run towards the latter frames, with cool crud and probably showers stuck over us.. High pressure yet again in the wrong place.... Roll on june... 

ECM1-168.gif

ECM1-192.gif

ECM1-240 (1).gif

ECM0-240.gif

Roll on Julie? I mean July!:oops:

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17 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

At least we can see the funny side of it... or is it just me!!:shok:💩

Anyway, there is actually some fine and warm weather on the Ecm 12z before the green plague arrives with a vengeance later...but in reality it would just be sunshine and showers..as we have this weekend!!👍

Thanks for that Karl... You make a fine job of polishing a turd of a chart..... 👍😜😂

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5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Thanks for that Karl... You make a fine job of polishing a turd of a chart..... 👍😜😂

It's fortunate that netweather doesn't have smell o vision.. a lot of the charts today would qualify as..💩😁

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Posted (edited)

No dramas folks, you may feel a little down by today's charts, but don't worry I will save us... Will I be tuning into the 18z later!? Not on your nelly, jeepers creepers is on.... Now let's just hope its not 31 more days of crud weather, like its 31 days of him!! 😉

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Edited by Mattwolves

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Posted (edited)

Well the last indication we will get today is from the ECM 12z mean, does this give an inkling of higher pressure into summer?  T240, given it is an average chart, looks promising:

image.thumb.jpg.00f7acbbefea68bba9158a193524577c.jpg

Summer starts a few days after that? 

Edit, JMA has it all kicking off even sooner, T192:

image.thumb.jpg.07daabeff415224ee747afaeba8826eb.jpg

 

Edited by Mike Poole

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Well the last indication we will get today is from the ECM 12z mean, does this give an inkling of higher pressure into summer?  T240, given it is an average chart, looks promising:

image.thumb.jpg.00f7acbbefea68bba9158a193524577c.jpg

Summer starts a few days after that? 

 

All this talk of pressure Mike is putting me under pressure and raising me pressure if you get my drift 😉 hopefully Mike things close to a turn for the better, me spirits are still high, so let's just hope the pressure follows suite. 😜👍

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The blocked Arctic essentially only leaves two directions of travel relevant to the UK with main one being the strong upper flow exiting the north eastern seaboard, courtesy of the complex pattern over North america, Downstream this gets modified/influenced by  the ridging of the mid Atlantic subtropical high and the trough associated with the vortex lobe north of Svalbard. Thus the upper flow veers NW portending cool and unsettled but how these two are aligned is critical

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In the ext period much less amplification (which in itself is no big surprise) and basically a fairly mundane westerly flow which would indicate changeable weather, with nothing particularly nasty lurking in the woodshed, with temps variable but a tad below average

9-14.thumb.png.7d5473c2e84257f733e08df88b744fa6.png814day_03.thumb.gif.5187bf254ab5d023fec2a66209dc5688.gif

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Posted (edited)

The NH 500mb profile and the North Atlantic surface analysis for midnight

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8224000.thumb.png.827f99b658b772c1ca27cd7eda6d0ecd.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.16117c840c90002a51e118e19507ec9c.gif

Today will start off cloudy in many areas particularly N Ireland and western coastal areas of Scotland where the occlusion is still lingering but in most areas the cloud will dissipate and as the sun gets to work, similar to yesterday, showers will pop up and could occur virtually anywhere and could well include some thunder in the mix,. Temps quite respectable but coastal areas cooler particularly in the east where low Stratus/fog could drift in from the North Sea.

119959842_maxsun.thumb.png.4ab27eb33154e34aad582248429b1b90.pngps_reflec_d02_16.thumb.png.e7266a56f00a62b96d07ad6a748feb1f.pngps_reflec_d02_20.thumb.png.18c78da512eccbbf22d402f1e4707c5e.pngps_reflec_d02_24.thumb.png.1bc73f9025721f1e980b8a2379ddf20a.png

The showers will tend to dissipate in most areas overnight but still a few in the south courtesy of a trough and they will continue over Scotland where shallow lows and another occlusion are still exerting some influence

PPVE89.thumb.gif.22fdc768a206ae2932e04cd8a7bee4db.gifp10.thumb.png.90d3611357eeb6ee7aaa76c33a7bb3b0.png1608687249_p04.thumb.png.daac65234c7f3adaae4cbf205fc1ec38.png

Monday will be another day of sunshine and showers but  less so over Wales, south west and west central England during the afternoon. The usual caveat eastern coastal areas and the north of Scotland will be markedly cooler

PPVI89.thumb.gif.7db1c42fc6d562673a8341c2f581827f.gif1943827402_mazmon.thumb.png.a902745af0b1724f0226ba6e49bcd590.png947979348_r14.thumb.png.1b8e7aea9ecb5ef226065bcc541d2bc2.png

By Tuesday the UK is in a very slack gradient as low pressure continues to fill in the north and a weak ridge edge in from the west. So notherr sunny day with a few showers around and temps generally a tad above average. But there are developments upstream with troughs dropping into the western Atlantic which was covered in a little more detail last evening.

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-8440000.thumb.png.59906e76ca40a0b34259820c8c588660.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.e2e1afc93464bc749e82e9adf388a8bc.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.514e4b061f7b059f74fa260ac82cd1d4.gif

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Another quite pleasant day on Wednesday but some patchy rain in the north east courtesy of the occlusion straddled across the North Sea. And surface fronts associated with the developing upper troughs in the western and central Atlantic are taking closer order south west of Ireland

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-8526400.thumb.png.c9bb977e048e8476a7b6a256d75a13be.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.e86aa0c9c2918ac53c401703f175152a.gif

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Overnight Wednesday and through Thursday a wave has formed on the front to the west and is 1006mb off the west coast of Ireland at midday with the front,accompanied by strengthening winds and rain tracking, north east across the south west of the country. And this will continue through the afternoon and evening. Cooler air in the wake of the front whilst remaining quite warm elsewhere

PPVO89.thumb.gif.48cd1863c0ca5ba3d96b8eb4cd4f5be9.gif290612485_rainthurs.thumb.png.9d102207fc226c7b2e93ffb597b34f8d.png1403052268_maxthurs.thumb.png.ec92052579c68453c677f9883ceef4a2.png

 

Edited by knocker

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To continue with the gfs. The front clears by Friday  which will be a day of showers, but by midday Saturday the next front and the developing area of low pressure to the north west  has brought rain to Ireland  The low and associated fronts all track east through the next two days resulting in sunny intervals and showers interspersed with longer periods of rain. The detail for the weekend is a long way from being finalised

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-8785600.thumb.png.d3ec879cb897138fea8d7abfc8b5f2ff.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-8872000.thumb.png.ca0e52ab59b5a55ede2b2cc6e41b03aa.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-8958400.thumb.png.2c15d12f53ae956ba6a40a0715edbd1f.png

 

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