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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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31 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

And again on the 6z signs of the Azores high nosing in to the SW! it makes no sense to state things are looking poor for 2 weeks at a time when there is so much model inconsistencies. 

gfs-0-228 (1).png

The Gfs 06z is actually awful, especially bank holiday weekend as it always is by uk standard, cool and damp....but fingers crossed for a nice sign on the horizon showing the Azores ridging in from the SW by day 9 but doubt it will come off as with every other model run that does during summer months which only gets watered away or pushed back when it appears in the 8 to 10 day range. How many times we seen it happen in the past? My fingers now hurt as they were crossed for far too long during winter!

Edited by 38.5*C

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5 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

The Gfs 06z is actually awful, especially bank holiday weekend as it always is by uk standard, cool and damp....but fingers crossed for a nice sign on the horizon showing the Azores ridging in from the SW by day 9 but doubt it will come off as with every other model run that does during summer months which only gets watered away or pushed back when it appears in the 8 to 10 day range. How many times we seen it happen in the past? My fingers now hurt as they were crossed for far too long during winter!

Well we had it persistently throughout last summer, so I'm surprised you feel that good weather never seems to come off. And Tbh getting some very warm conditions set up this summer will be far easier than getting that elusive long significant cold snap in winter to set up! I'm quite surprised by your frustrations tbh, it's May 18th...if it was July, I maybe would understand... 

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15 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

The Gfs 06z is actually awful, especially bank holiday weekend as it always is by uk standard, cool and damp....but fingers crossed for a nice sign on the horizon showing the Azores ridging in from the SW by day 9 but doubt it will come off as with every other model run that does during summer months which only gets watered away or pushed back when it appears in the 8 to 10 day range. How many times we seen it happen in the past? My fingers now hurt as they were crossed for far too long during winter!

I had to take an anti depressant after reading this..it's not nearly as bad as you describe, as others have said, the week ahead for many looks on the warm side with sunny spells and a scattering of heavy showers with a risk of thunder..some days could even be fine!.especially further south...great ending to the 6z operational  by the way!!!😜

06_372_ukthickness850.png

06_372_uk2mtmp.png

06_372_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.

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The clusters this morning illustrate quite well the tricky business of getting the position and orientation of the ridge/trough correct next weekend

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019051800_156.thumb.png.8e212b91a7c922755399dd2206c05519.pngt156.thumb.png.51672466a78c4300b35899cd40569748.png

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019051800_192.thumb.png.681bdca34e5685a0e3346ab76a8e5588.pngt192.thumb.png.b9b1983c6c44d7e368128d686cb631f8.png

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2 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Don't worry about June, look to July August. 

I'm going to check the cfs, I have a good feeling..now I'm medicated!😁

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15 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Well we had it persistently throughout last summer, so I'm surprised you feel that good weather never seems to come off. And Tbh getting some very warm conditions set up this summer will be far easier than getting that elusive long significant cold snap in winter to set up! I'm quite surprised by your frustrations tbh, it's May 18th...if it was July, I maybe would understand... 

Yes your right we had good summer last year but it was the same persistent theme all summer - only then it were the breakdowns appearing in the 10 days range and kept being pushed back until it doesn't come off at all. Not writing off the summer just saying the current outlook looks dodgy especially with HLB . Its always subject to chopping and changing so It might look a lot different tomorrow.

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21 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I had to take an anti depressant after reading this..it's not nearly as bad as you describe, as others have said, the week ahead for many looks on the warm side with sunny spells and a scattering of heavy showers with a risk of thunder..some days could even be fine!.especially further south...great ending to the 6z operational  by the way!!!😜

06_372_ukthickness850.png

06_372_uk2mtmp.png

06_372_mslp500.png

that model is not accurate? that chart would have way higher maxes than that surely? but great chart Frosty

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Another reason to be cheerful is the SST's around the uk are rising nicely apart from the north sea which doesn't benefit from the warm waters of the Gulf Stream but we are close to summer now, another reason to be cheerful..oh and the ending to the 6z..another reason to be cheerful!!!👍😜

sea-temperature.png

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FV3 not without support from the 6z GEFS ensembles, here's two crackers at T300:

image.thumb.jpg.f7479f17dff70a07f4858712824975db.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.4a5f1b8d80adab0c564f3943d0ac26a7.jpg

Meanwhile GEM 0z has this at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.d9b535d0d9758bdc9189af932af592ab.jpg

Looking promising, interesting 12s today as hopefully things get firmed up a bit more...

Edited by Mike Poole

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The good old CFS is definitely showing the way forward with high pressure taking control... Summer proper will soon be arriving folks.... But in fairness its not to bad currently... Had a couple of rain showers here in the west midlands in the last week.... If that's dire weather I can live with it! 

cfs-0-204.png

cfs-0-216.png

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cfs-0-252.png

cfs-0-276.png

844519.gif

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As I'm only a couple of hundred yards south of the Norfolk border, here are the 06Z ensembles for Suffolk and Norfolk:

image.thumb.png.2a61ed7d91150527aad172725896c40d.pngimage.thumb.png.3c8dfd7835e02de85d4b1d27e6213487.png 

image.thumb.png.0c0482ef6f65d6f28f3034ccb829fdf0.pngimage.thumb.png.22a6190c951eca8f26ca7d619e2e4b1d.png 

How's that for clarity, eh?:shok:

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Mid / longer term (probably from around T+240 hours) the GEFS 6z mean hints that the azores ridge / high could influence at least southern uk but northern uk (scotland) probably cooler and more changeable and there's even a chance of scooping up some continental warmth later..as for next week, as now it screams showery trough(s) with a mixture of warm sunshine triggering heavy and probably thundery showers and feeling a bit humid across most of england and wales.

Edited by Frosty.

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In the immediate - a slack slow moving pressure pattern - not bad in many respect, chance of showers for some, but for many a respectable picture with some decent sunny spells, often dry and temperatures around or slightly above average - typical late spring weather.

Unfortunately a change is now consistently appearing on the horizon as we enter the bank holiday period, trough dominated with cool conditions and some longer lasting spells of rain or showers.

The end of the month looks fairly cool with further showery outbreaks, but signs of a mid-atlantic ridge building and what happens next as we start summer proper will depend on the strength and position of the jetstream - more energy in the northern arm will enable heights to topple in over the UK joined by azores high ridging, a more active southern arm would allow the trough to hold its force over the UK meaning more cool wet conditions, a weak jetstream, would just prop up the high and we would see a fairly settled average start to summer. 

I would say the models are showing very typical charts for end of spring - which is a time when the jetstream is typical in its full slumber, and we often see a slow moving pattern. The summer base state tends to set in later in June - when the jetstream usually stirs again, in some years along a northern trajectory in others a southern one..

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A lot of showers around this afternoon but thinning out by early evening. But the rain over western Scotland will persist.

ps_reflec_d02_10.thumb.png.3b481dd3568d67f02daead3a3c68d0dc.pngps_reflec_d02_13.thumb.png.7382c2a320d2249f51e9222fb04d45b6.png

Currently

modis.thumb.JPG.8ddcc52a38f809e3122dde40a707d26c.JPG13.thumb.gif.27a0de580f5ae849b833e7de68918ea2.gif

 

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Given that there are still almost two weeks before summer starts, I find the level of despondency, among a few posters, rather difficult to fathom...We have, ahead of us, maybe 10-days' reasonable warmth, sunny spells, and the probability of some much-needed rainfall -- before the arrival of summer...

So, quite why some are writing-off summer already, is quite beyond me...It's nae even as though the models are 100% accurate, in their respective prognostications, is it?

The weather will do what the weather will do...whether we like it or not!:oldgood:

 

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38 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Given that there are still almost two weeks before summer starts, I find the level of despondency, among a few posters, rather difficult to fathom...We have, ahead of us, maybe 10-days' reasonable warmth, sunny spells, and the probability of some much-needed rainfall -- before the arrival of summer...

So, quite why some are writing-off summer already, is quite beyond me...It's nae even as though the models are 100% accurate, in their respective prognostications, is it?

The weather will do what the weather will do...whether we like it or not!:oldgood:

 

Good post Pete.... Unfortunately, some have been writing it off since April, and come November, we will have some writing of the winter.... The WRITING is on the wall.... 👍😜

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43 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Given that there are still almost two weeks before summer starts, I find the level of despondency, among a few posters, rather difficult to fathom...We have, ahead of us, maybe 10-days' reasonable warmth, sunny spells, and the probability of some much-needed rainfall -- before the arrival of summer...

So, quite why some are writing-off summer already, is quite beyond me...It's nae even as though the models are 100% accurate, in their respective prognostications, is it?

The weather will do what the weather will do...whether we like it or not!:oldgood:

 

Much the same as folk do this for the winter, late October, although last year their guess did turn out nearer the mark!

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Here's a sneak peek behind the scenes look at what conditions might be like at the start of the meteorological summer of 2019 from the GEFS 6z!!👍🌞🔥😜

GFSC00EU06_372_1.png

GFSC00EU06_372_2.png

GFSP03EU06_372_1.png

GFSP03EU06_372_2.png

GFSP05EU06_372_1.png

GFSP11EU06_372_1.png

GFSP11EU06_372_2.png

GFSP15EU06_384_1.png

GFSP16EU06_384_2.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Promise as early as T180 on ICON 12z, will the Greenland high pressure result in a west based -NAO? Bad in winter but could assist now!

image.thumb.jpg.c6ba739e2eab2f08a6bab51fbe251b26.jpg

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The ukmo 12h is all about sunshine and showers, some heavy and thundery but as is the nature of showers, some areas will miss them on certain days and stay fine..temperature wise, looks pleasantly warm  in terms of surface conditions and taking London as an example, the next five days at least could be up around 20c give or take a degree or two..the uppers (850's) don't look anything much but the sun is now as strong as it is in August..or July even and winds look generally light apart from gusts near and during some of the heaviest showers.

Edited by Frosty.

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I maybe seeing things but to me the Gem 12z shows more ridging / even a weak high pressure cell and less troughing next week, ergo it would be less showery with more in the way of fine weather and sunshine, some quite warm uppers for a time too before it turns cooler and more unsettled from the nw / n later.

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And again, there are encouraging signs on Day 16!:oldgrin: It looks like HP might really be going to build, away to our east. So, hopefully, the Greeny HP won't be causing too much trouble, this time?🙏

image.thumb.png.0183385d6a2023a9045b8055d9b869a0.pngimage.thumb.png.4e33eb0bbcb5bce87d67a4c09a647824.png 

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