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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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Nothing much to get excited about again this morning - runs not looking too sharp shall we say....

Interestingly, along with our mainly crud weather, there has been a lot of troughing over the western USA - California in particular. It's been noticeably cool and wet there, with rainfall well over the norm. Just another symptom of all this northern blocking and slightly prolonged abnormal weather patterns. 

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It looks like warming up again from sunday, 18-20c across england and wales with sunny spells although still some showers around but there should also be plenty of fine weather next week with temps into the upper teens to low 20's celsius (warmest across the s / se) ..not bad for the end of spring!!!👍😉

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Some pretty astonishing temp anomalies forecast for the SE United States and the heat could last a while

index.thumb.png.cea4b718dce8dedc551730e3f0e7f8e1.png

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42 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It looks like warming up again from sunday, 18-20c across england and wales with sunny spells although still some showers around but there should also be plenty of fine weather next week with temps into the upper teens to low 20's celsius (warmest across the s / se) ..not bad for the end of spring!!!👍😉

One thing worrying me mate is the constant modelling of low pressure from the ecm from 144 hours onwards over the last 48 hours!!nothing like the ecm mean and we know 9 times out of 10 especially last winter that the mean caught up eventually!!so it could be no where near as good in medium to longer term!!

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25 minutes ago, shaky said:

One thing worrying me mate is the constant modelling of low pressure from the ecm from 144 hours onwards over the last 48 hours!!nothing like the ecm mean and we know 9 times out of 10 especially last winter that the mean caught up eventually!!so it could be no where near as good in medium to longer term!!

Yes , my concerns were aroused yesterday when the det continued with its grim outlook,00z EC is hideous, and the Greenland block still persists at day 10!

image.thumb.png.d50221e04873811c9aa337fd7f4b2118.png

image.thumb.png.5d3ee54c7dfa60eb278b2df8b1135a80.png

Not a pretty picture for those of wanting warmth!

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image.thumb.png.8cff1cc006b3e001eb5cf3d7960468ab.png

There looks to be a bit of an issue around the 23rd MAy - the MSLP ranges from 1010mb to 1025mb at either end of the ensemble scale....with that much uncertainty at 6 days out it's hard to be certain at day 10-15! By the turn of the month you have one member below 1000mb, and some above 1030mb!

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Golly gee! The 00Z ends with a convective cool snap...One for The Friends to cherish!::shok:

image.thumb.png.671df80c1fc007fe5345cb55a3f35d09.pngimage.thumb.png.52a5b37ee7876f86b737beb36a11a087.png 

So does the FV3! That's summer over then?🤣

image.thumb.png.ee2b8a8d973c4da49c0f8768ede2468a.pngimage.thumb.png.26947faf7676ee57dd584f4a3a05f565.png 

Though the ensembles show absolutely nowt out of the ordinary:

image.thumb.png.f803520c9512f098817455271772eb09.pngimage.thumb.png.ba0466bc77df2c1bc108e408ee55058a.png 

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51 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Golly gee! The 00Z ends with a convective cool snap...One for The Friends to cherish!::shok:

image.thumb.png.671df80c1fc007fe5345cb55a3f35d09.pngimage.thumb.png.52a5b37ee7876f86b737beb36a11a087.png 

So does the FV3! That's summer over then?🤣

image.thumb.png.ee2b8a8d973c4da49c0f8768ede2468a.pngimage.thumb.png.26947faf7676ee57dd584f4a3a05f565.png 

Though the ensembles show absolutely nowt out of the ordinary:

image.thumb.png.f803520c9512f098817455271772eb09.pngimage.thumb.png.ba0466bc77df2c1bc108e408ee55058a.png 

Spot on Ed, what we need is a sense of humour about the weather instead of being miserable when the models don't show us what we want / like!!👍

Edited by Frosty.

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2 hours ago, knocker said:

Some pretty astonishing temp anomalies forecast for the SE United States and the heat could last a while

index.thumb.png.cea4b718dce8dedc551730e3f0e7f8e1.png

Good heavens. At least up to 22*C above average in some places! 😲

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Even i must admit that the Euro is pretty bad for the Bank Holiday Weekend. 

Fri/Sat we have a low to the north crossing us with the base of the trough in southern France (proper southerly tracking jet).

Sunday we have a shortwave cross the center of the UK drenching us all. 

Bank Holiday Monday provides a weak north westerly flow under cyclonic conditions (cool and showery). 

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There is some hope down the line however for those heat lovers. For the third year in a row it looks like we may be seeing a westerly wind burst in the central/east Pacific around the start of the month, this has obviously signaled heat in 2017 and 2018 by around mid-month. 

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3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Nothing much to get excited about again this morning - runs not looking too sharp shall we say....

Interestingly, along with our mainly crud weather, there has been a lot of troughing over the western USA - California in particular. It's been noticeably cool and wet there, with rainfall well over the norm. Just another symptom of all this northern blocking and slightly prolonged abnormal weather patterns. 

A cooler and wetter than average pattern is actually just symptomatic of an embedded El Nino for the south western US although it usually relents towards summer.

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2 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Good heavens. At least up to 22*C above average in some places! 😲

That would equate to around 45C, should it occur, over here, in July!:shok:

In the meantime, closer to home, next week looks like being closer to 20 or 21C but with some very slow-moving thundery showers:

image.thumb.png.8b82e7b22fb8177c6ea283838730e3fb.pngimage.thumb.png.50f1b95f82b65d5cc9bd830e8da4eafb.png 

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4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

In the meantime, closer to home, next week looks like being closer to 20 or 21C but with some very slow-moving thundery showers:

 

That sounds perfect, warmth, sun, rain and thunder..everyone should be happy!!....except of course they won't be!!👍😜

Edited by Frosty.

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Suprise suprise, no I'm not cilla black! But look where Mr GFS 6z builds heights again! I can safely say now that May does look like going down as average! My other concern is will we see a default pattern of mobile Wstlys set in after this Northern blocking episode.... Its long overdue and has been mentioned by some senior forecasters! This would bring more typical UK summer conditions. Could this summer be back loaded or just bang average! We said in winter after a mild start.... Don't worry it will be back loaded... And we no what occurred next!!! I only hope we don't start saying the same of this summer!! Long way to go, so I will refrain from to many negative comments!! But already this fourth coming summer bares zilch resemblance to last year!! And tbh it was always gonna be like that.. 

gfs-0-120 (1).png

gfs-0-150.png

gfs-0-162.png

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We don't even have those excellent background signals we had in winter although that's probably a blessing since winter potential amounted to zilch in reality!!..roll on summer!😉

Edited by Frosty.

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Absolutely dire 6z out to nearly day 10...like others have said... Perfick in January... Not so glamorous in nearly June. 

gfs-0-228.png

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Absolutely dire 6z out to nearly day 10...like others have said... Perfick in January... Not so glamorous in nearly June. 

gfs-0-228.png

At least we have our sense of humour, the models can't take that away from us!!👍😜💩

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

At least we have our sense of humour, the models can't take that away from us!!👍😜💩

Yes Karl still got that... Few more weeks of that though, and it may start to wane! 😉

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4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes Karl still got that... Few more weeks of that though, and it may start to wane! 😉

Well, Matt, should that ever-expanding 'expanse' of 10C+ uppers carry on getting bigger, any wind-direction not containing a northerly element would nigh-on guarantee us some warmth...And it's nae even summer yet!😄

image.thumb.png.b977d70eb43b1bdf57e50c8e58decd20.pngimage.thumb.png.fd16467a7af2b1cc51f1701cf75252fe.png :shok:

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It’s still spring so we will have to see what summer holds. I actually thought after the winter and spring we had that a decent summer was looking far more likely than not. The weather recently has made me a bit jittery though....but best to stick with your initial thoughts I guess! Still hoping for a decent summer 2019. We just need a bazooka over the northern latitudes to break this relentless high pressure and start again.

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06z doesn't inspire much,  looks like a back loaded summer with July/August hopefully better.

1992 May and June were rubbish then it picked up well in July, August.

 

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2 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

06z doesn't inspire much,  looks like a back loaded summer with July/August hopefully better.

1992 May and June were rubbish then it picked up well in July, August.

 

Its possible although to early to write a month off that has yet to start, but Yeh it could end up the complete opposite to last year in regards to when it starts! Personally I would love to see a very warm August, as these appear to be seriously lacking at present. 

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20 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

06z doesn't inspire much,  looks like a back loaded summer with July/August hopefully better.

1992 May and June were rubbish then it picked up well in July, August.

The GFS only goes out to June 2 - the very date on which snow fell (1975) and only three-days before a quite memorable summer began...IMO, no-one can tell whether this summer'll be back- or front-loaded: in this part of the world even the much-touted ENSO patterns are more-often-than-not largely overridden by local-scale phenomena...if they weren't weather forecasting would be far easier than it is?🔮🧙‍♂️Here are a couple charts for July 1995: notice the HLB?

image.thumb.png.21f3ddaf514e20284529a7a3bf4eabec.pngimage.thumb.png.0771dca2b183f165baa1ab9fd895f1bd.png :oldgood:

Edited by Ed Stone

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A quick look at the latter frames of the 6z suggests strong heights trying to gain a foothold and warmer temps not to far away... Kind of looks like a North/South split scenario developing which would be quite normal, and finally perhaps HLB starting to ebate by this stage.. 

gfs-0-348.png

gfs-0-372.png

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17 hours ago, Frosty. said:

longer term i'm sensing a north / south split with the best weather further south.

I mentioned this yesterday Matt 👍😉

Edited by Frosty.

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