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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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38 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Maybe something like this, or something hot and sultry!👍🔥

GFSP12EU12_270_1.png

GFSP19EU12_306_2.png

By the look of those charts, it'll not be that long before someone posts about their liking for 'hot Julies'!:oops:

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Much as this morning the ecm puts the ridge under pressure next week but this process does initiate warm air being adverted over the UK in the south westerly flow

t144.thumb.png.f37ad02b55ce8fa17e9425dedc5ef150.pngt169.thumb.png.aacd86e8c8df171173ef9f2f57139dba.pngt192.thumb.png.9b2bf28e01c450e3da30d824046c9b37.png

index.thumb.png.8922d4c77633c8456804d239b7f5d8c6.png

 

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And ECM 12z ends with the scenario suggesting a link up with Scandi high pressure,

image.thumb.jpg.612c8cb1d44ec6200d89dd5ab8815f69.jpg

T240:

image.thumb.jpg.b52b180ade737cd3d713184145aa382b.jpg

Maybe the next ridge, maybe not, we'll see!

Edited by Mike Poole

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13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

And ECM 12z ends with the scenario suggesting a link up with Scandi high pressure,

image.thumb.jpg.612c8cb1d44ec6200d89dd5ab8815f69.jpg

T240:

image.thumb.jpg.b52b180ade737cd3d713184145aa382b.jpg

Maybe the next ridge, maybe not, we'll see!

I see what you mean, it has a rinse and repeat look about it..Certainly like what I'm seeing next week, it could become very warm and humid, especially in the south and east for a time, warmer than this week.

168_mslp500.png

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216_thickuk.png

Edited by Frosty.

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JMA has the summer repeating ridge scenario the form horse at just T192:

image.thumb.jpg.eb1c80620fbaac35b1eedb3db2e799aa.jpg

At this rate it will soon become impossible for those so inclined to suggest cold and unseasonable weather.  🍺🍺

Edited by Mike Poole

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Good time to have a look at the CFS for June, here's the last 8 runs Z500 anomalies :

image.thumb.jpg.96b69ed1c07fcbf6087354a4d2af110f.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.777449c8e65456c2ba5e77804e0a4c68.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ed9fa64247a8598a794624e5603edba3.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.d59f57fc6ba292c537624634f40679bf.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3405af0ea41befc1ec7bbc9065ab3e7a.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.f2258e6a2a47a5244e6bf93f49d86ce3.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.342898df3ce17e1af416e695756f57ed.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.44037b0bf86e5acfca6cb4af28643025.jpg

 All high pressure dominated except maybe the last one. High pressure in control to some extent, think June will be hot for many.  Variations as per above, but very little low pressure signal at all ...

Edited by Mike Poole

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Increasingly good Ecm 12z ensemble mean next week..3 words..Azores / Ridge / High!👍😜..looks warmer than this week for the areas further SE that have felt a bit chilly in the easterly breeze!!!, looks more Southerly / South westerly next week, much warmer direction!!!!!!!!😉

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EDM0-192.GIF

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EDM1-216.GIF

EDM0-216.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.

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21 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Are you Alderc in disguise? Yes some of the distant charts may be on the chilly side but it's not in the reliable yet and as I have mentioned a negative phase of the NAO/AO is in no way a guarantee of below average temperatures at this time of year.

You kept harping on about how this week would be poor because of chilly easterlies but that really isn't how it has turned out. Do you just like to troll in the summer months? How can you have an Icelandic low and a negative NAO anyway?

Eh?? Im really no Alderc but at least some people wanted to be realistic instead of the cuckoo approach to model outlooks especially all the excited and smiley face reactions to warm and settled FI charts that only turns into major despair and confusement when their favourate weather doesn't happen.

Just pointing out that a negative NAO and weak Azores high could be the reason and nor does it really give much hope for a hot and dry summer since some on here keep screaming that another summer 2018 is just around the corner. 


Also keep a check on that sea ice melt because it is much higher than last year and there seems to be a correlation between sea ice melt and summers in North West Europe. The higher the melt, the more unsettled in NW Europe.

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Long way off but nice to see none the less.🙂

gfs-0-312.png

gfs-0-348.png

gfs-1-348.png

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Anyway back on model chat...….gfs 18z looks very summer like as a huge monsterous sized ridge parks itself right over UK and temps shooting into the high 20s but yes its in FI, the.it will never happen land lol

fantasy.JPG

Edited by reef
Original quoted post removed

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Outlook - today marks the swansong of the high pressure as a period of the UK coming under the influence of a trough begins. Not by any means all doom and gloom but certainly a more more unsettled period where the detail may be difficult to pin down

The NH 500mb analysis and the North Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the Camborne sounding.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7964800.thumb.png.8c9771f76d9f366b8da4a47584203c0a.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.dfe0f263c3f9d2c507b1366cc51b8296.gif2019051600.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.1d9238b6d871081aa0764f47ee83de26.gif

After a chilly start in some areas today will be another warm and sunny day, albeit not as warm as yesterday. But with the high cell migrating north onshore winds along the east coast will become more of a feature with the usual impacts on the temp. And cloud may be more of a problem with again some high and medium cloud in south west regions (Note the sounding above) and cloud may also pop up in central areas of England. Possibly the odd shower in the NW from the trough that has pushed in from the Atlantic

PPVE89.thumb.gif.65c8e4b13c64fec0788ed1eaf336b155.gif1851134229_maxth.thumb.png.a59c564a04119ea124fd547b921d323b.png805532201_cloudth.thumb.png.37326277e7f694fc4b4e468c56766f90.png

Tonight will be mostly clear with mist/fog patches forming in the north with some showery rain moving across the south by morning as the low pressure spreads north from France and the odd trough tracks west in the circulation.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.b9007f3349c1dfa18fab2b2f2b42c443.gif

Friday will be a cooler day, particularly along the east coast, and cloud and showery rain will feature much more. North west Scotland will again be dry and quite warm

PPVI89.thumb.gif.42d8b2b26cc2dc7df9ab3917f9bbfb66.gif1704507971_mxfr.thumb.png.d921a11b6eb45d03dd57988353307d7c.pngr09.thumb.png.75ae6b13bb6d811251b8285eb24f32f7.pngr14.thumb.png.c807ec2cb29ceeffc13ec744eee22646.pngr18.thumb.png.303c62c41775f77934cd7d88318a765a.png

By Saturday the upper trough is negatively tilted from southern Greenland to south east Europe with a shallow surface low over the UK. Thus a day of sunshine and showers, some of which could be heavy with hail and thunder in the mix. A day of temp contrasts and quite warm again in the south

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-8180800.thumb.png.74dfe91994d236c3190681a586949800.pngPPVK89.thumb.gif.e0c3df85fd98e14a019aa272383141d6.gif

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A not dissimilar day on Sunday, and the showers may well coalesce in the vicinity of any troughs Quite a warm day with temps a tad above average apart from some coastal areas.

1189246290_rainsun.thumb.png.eb5be07e4d527f51bd22b7175d9fd583.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.cdabe18c59eee15b3203749a9cce3f24.gif1472932445_maxsun.thumb.png.21b339d1b55bb9a3b5ac30bdd5f9532e.png

And the same again on Monday

2058851349_rainmon.thumb.png.1018cf51a047ff52e5470e90cb7319bc.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.99b5656a2a30497a5a212df1232eac37.gif1602982015_maxmon.thumb.png.c129d5fb343cddd05b69a8d1a57de7bd.png

 

 

 

Edited by knocker

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The general theme for next week and into the weekend is to remain unsettled but nothing particularly untoward as troughs drop into the Atlantic and phase with the subtropical high pressure in a quietly mobile pattern. Thus an overview would be sunny intervals and showers, perhaps the odd longer period of rain with temps a tad above average

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8526400.thumb.png.def84943396fe7b9f346bdf3a180c032.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8785600.thumb.png.f7ff6eb5dd82cf72dfb01610227d03a6.pngtemp.thumb.png.d2aa70ac9237c32bf984f36ba0b0db48.png

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And I can confirm almost total cover of thick Ci here at the moment

sat.thumb.JPG.c3de46c11e31e1cf5057bff352977af7.JPG

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The overview next week not dissimilar to the gfs

ecmwf_z500aMean_nhem_5.thumb.png.562747b683d1caff1202871d3b95cdf9.png

t150.thumb.png.8dfe9db8c8c463acf2997b34689a06e6.pngt180.thumb.png.27761271c383cfa0141f63d504f9a455.pngindex.thumb.png.8495117fadb64cb8e1120520b5716949.png

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0Z from tonight looks really cold/chilly with 850hpa temperatures just below 0 degrees from both GFS/ECM, people are in denial here thinking we will have more than 2-4 days this month with above average temperatures.

Edited by Polar Maritime
Deleted long blank space.

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12 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

0Z from tonight looks really cold/chilly with 850hpa temperatures just below 0 degrees from both GFS/ECM, people are in denial here thinking we will have more than 2-4 days this month with above average temperatures.

I assume you are talking about sweden and not the uk!!!!!!!!!!!!!😉

Edited by Polar Maritime
Shortened quote.

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00Z GFS still not too bad: only one blob of snot remains::oldgood:

image.thumb.png.e2846fdca776b23118df943d7a1ddd5e.pngimage.thumb.png.7a3998ccff7ca7998cd16e51b7dfd0b1.png 

But the FV3 is being typically 'lamentable':

image.thumb.png.d7806b0e72141fadac214df391ea0e69.pngimage.thumb.png.8a1fb66ddb50ed00941e33698f578181.png

And, as is often the case with the 00Z, the Op is rather on the cold side of the ensemble:

image.thumb.png.b765b8fdba7cf5be795cc45a61a5cf0a.pngimage.thumb.png.d30db0db7f92bcd757b18341ebf65a79.png 

And, finally, a polite request to my fellow posters: please don't post using invisible ink; it's nae easy to read!🤓🤣

 

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The NOAA/CPC 8 to 14 day 500mb anomaly chart looks reasonable for those looking for something more settled. Hints of ridging towards the U.K, though perhaps nothing really warm with an upper flow over the U.K from the North-West (on sunnier days, especially towards Western areas, it could feel pleasant in the powerful May sunshine). The charts does seem to mark out some troughing quite close to the East of the U.K over Scandinavia, so possible the odd Low or two could affect Eastern areas of the U.K especially.

17CCA7EF-0A3C-4197-ACA8-788087B319EB.thumb.gif.612a9a8438ba5340e638bcc991e2574f.gif

(With the chart flipped up

showing the U.K. upright)

7F6D2BAF-509C-4492-B59F-21F4D0BE7C31.thumb.jpeg.94e07b186655a63947704c2d89948157.jpeg

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Not too bad overall, some days likely to be fine enough to bring the teddies along on a picnic. 🌤🧸

However, just an extra nudge Eastwards of the pattern would be preferable. 🤔

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The models are very unpredictable at the moment,  last nights 18z had 26c, now 00z has 10c  anything after 3 or 4 days is pushing it

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Taking London as an example, we have a cooler few days ahead 16c today, maybe only 15c tomorrow but then up to 20c by sunday and then 21/22c well into next week..yeah really cold init!!😉

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Temps recovering by Monday after a cooler weekend, Not quite as warm as the last few days but very pleasant with some spots possibly touching 21c.

2127836045_viewimage-2019-05-16T103551_741.thumb.png.434b40fef983f66e6ec03970c031fa50.png94789858_viewimage-2019-05-16T103606_513.thumb.png.65c6394b57c051878fa7afaacf835aea.png1595339875_viewimage-2019-05-16T103619_440.thumb.png.13510f73a0d8fc004a2e1ebdabe88786.png

Edited by Polar Maritime

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Warming up, come Monday, with any sea fret/haar confined mostly to eastern coasts and A252's house...Heavy showers and sunny intervals/spells inland...?:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.780f49e0be7ef098c680449923d49651.pngimage.thumb.png.fa43c39fbddc1513a76bc8237a7c8db2.png 

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13 hours ago, 38.5*C said:

Eh?? Im really no Alderc but at least some people wanted to be realistic instead of the cuckoo approach to model outlooks especially all the excited and smiley face reactions to warm and settled FI charts that only turns into major despair and confusement when their favourate weather doesn't happen.

Just pointing out that a negative NAO and weak Azores high could be the reason and nor does it really give much hope for a hot and dry summer since some on here keep screaming that another summer 2018 is just around the corner. 


Also keep a check on that sea ice melt because it is much higher than last year and there seems to be a correlation between sea ice melt and summers in North West Europe. The higher the melt, the more unsettled in NW Europe.

I don't think anything after a week is particularly realistic though at this time of the year given the slack atmospheric circulation patterns. Any cooler then average temperatures are limited to the end of next week at the very least and colder uppers from northerlies keep getting put back.

Sea ice may increase the risk of high pressure forming over the arctic but where that high pressure would form is an unknown. We can still have lots of northern blocking under a spanish plume scenario.

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6z not to bad, some showers around the weekend and early next week, it looks like things becoming more settled again through the week with temps around 20c,perhaps low 20s in a few locations. Low pressure to the NW may bring some more unsettled conditions to more NW parts come the end of next week.... Could we be entering a rinses and repeat situation!! All in all not to bad up until this point, but subject to change as always. 

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