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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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Posted (edited)

The 6z FV3 managed to find some green snot at the end of the run, surprise surprise!..crap model😜💩

Ed beat me again!!..not that it's a race or anything!!..think I'm suffering from deja-vu:shok:

GFSPARAEU06_360_1.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Potential for a more prolonged late May warm spell there, just need the high to build over us and keep them pesky fronts at bay. 50/50 chance.:oldrolleyes:

gfs-0-198.png

ECM1-216.gif

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Posted (edited)

The GEFS 6z mean is looking nae bad next week with increasing ridging bringing fine and pleasantly warm weather!👍

GFSAVGEU06_156_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_180_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_192_1.png

Edited by Frosty.

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ECM clusters on a knife-edge whether to go with last nights style evolution, or this mornings:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019051500_240.

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Posted (edited)

Looking further ahead towards the end of May there are some good signs from the GEFS 6z for those of us (the majority) who prefer fine and warm weather..the azores high could become friendly!👍

GFSAVGEU06_318_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_348_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_372_1.png

GFSP08EU06_372_1.png

GFSP10EU06_372_1.png

GFSP13EU06_372_1.png

GFSP17EU06_372_1.png

GFSP17EU06_372_2.png

GFSP19EU06_372_1.png

Edited by Frosty.

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And the 06Z ensembles don't look too bad:

 

image.thumb.png.e5c56d5464cec30ddaed220239b7d707.pngimage.thumb.png.265fc8b4a591770b0158bf8389fa463f.png 

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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

And the 06Z ensembles don't look too bad:

 

image.thumb.png.e5c56d5464cec30ddaed220239b7d707.pngimage.thumb.png.265fc8b4a591770b0158bf8389fa463f.png 

Certainly no heat wave either - wonder if some of us in the south might go whole month without breaking 25c ?

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Posted (edited)

So to the 12s then and here's the ICON in full:

anim_dzg3.gif

So turning unsettled into the weekend but becoming more settled and warm into next week, but the scenario looks like there may be some uncertainty, the ridge, high pressure doesn't look strong, but it's a good start, only goes to T180.  UKMO up next...

Edited by Mike Poole

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UKMO T144 looks very supportive of warm settled weather becoming the form horse as next week evolves, looks good to me:

image.thumb.jpg.7934ca85b316cd604edd635aa2567925.jpg

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Posted (edited)

To me the ukmo 12h @ T+144 hours looks more settled or less unsettled than the 0h in the same timeframe..for what it's worth i think next week will bring some fine and warm weather.👍

UW144-21.gif

Edited by Frosty.

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6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

To me the ukmo 12h @ T+144 hours looks more settled or less unsettled than the 0z in the same timeframe..for what it's worth i think next week will bring some fine and warm weather.👍

UW144-21.gif

Yes, Karl, and I think the low camped out west, stronger than on the ICON, will serve us well in pumping up some warmth and ensure settled conditions for the remainder of the week.  

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8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, Karl, and I think the low camped out west, stronger than on the ICON, will serve us well in pumping up some warmth and ensure settled conditions for the remainder of the week.  

Fingers crossed Mike !!

My only issue is the amount of Northern blocking still being advertised -i would like to see those heights across Greenland being dismantled soon.

EC will be interesting tonight, i'm off work from next wed for a week so hoping the 00z run is the way forward.. 🙂

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, Karl, and I think the low camped out west, stronger than on the ICON, will serve us well in pumping up some warmth and ensure settled conditions for the remainder of the week.  

Certainly signs of warming up following the briefest of cooler blips!👍

 

UW96-7.gif

UW120-7.gif

UW144-7 (1).gif

Edited by Frosty.

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Now this does look promising!

image.thumb.png.ddf3724b8ccbccc381747783f2def97e.pngimage.thumb.png.8c97d789fde85fc721797c3f88db3d54.png :oldgood:

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17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Fingers crossed Mike !!

My only issue is the amount of Northern blocking still being advertised -i would like to see those heights across Greenland being dismantled soon.

EC will be interesting tonight, i'm off work from next wed for a week so hoping the 00z run is the way forward.. 🙂

Hi NWS, I understand the issue with Northern blocking, it should now be dissipating (it's a result of the fairly extreme final stratospheric warming we've had this year) but that is slow to show up on the models, I'll be the first to admit.  

However other things are in play, and even with high lat blocking, I see no signal at all for the kind of cement mixer low over the UK as per 2007, and to a lesser extent 2012, hemmed in by high pressure on three sides.  GFS 12z indicates how northern blocking can coexist with an Azores ridge asserting it's presence:

anim_wwz5.gif

It is not a usual synoptic, but should give some nice weather next week, but should give us plenty to discuss as we try to discern the main pattern going into summer.

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It was touch-and-go there, for a minute, but the trusty GFS came through. Next stop FV3!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.a209cc601e9a2be5f4ce4c91ec12c041.pngimage.thumb.png.951679ba141726f391722631a3edbf7e.png 

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Posted (edited)

It's getting a bit tense according to FV3 in the jetstream, here T300 and T312:

image.thumb.jpg.2ade1a15a82db6919aa42c2a329053c0.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3f493716a692f2d0e45f2d7e9f72758a.jpg

Wonder if they are arguing about Brexit? 

meanwhile the GEM has this at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.09b84e24bbdb04bc5179836bb8ba0514.jpg

Yes heights ridging to Greenland but also a nose of pressure towards the UK from the south.  

Edited by Mike Poole

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Next stop FV3!:oldgrin:

 

The FV3 is a good model, but only in the twilight zone!:shok:

Seriously though the 12z FV3 comes good with high pressure / strong azores ridging during late May..👍..you may wonder why I mention the twilight zone..well the answer is simple, it's one of my favourite programmes and I just watched an episode before posting this..glad that's settled!!😜

GFSPARAEU12_216_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_240_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_288_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_312_1.png

 

 

GFSPARAEU12_336_1.png

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Post not displaying properly (or could be my phone)

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It's a model of infinite brilliance...but only in short bursts:


image.thumb.png.da9cfe87805db62acd874e425b02eeae.png
image.thumb.png.a1d8acded47e1e04a80441e15b6d1929.png
image.thumb.png.2d20c080046490af46b1986c1edadc1d.png Still no dominant HLB though!:yahoo:

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I've only just got in but I note the ext GEFS is i the same ball park as this morning's EPS but with a more influential ridge

9-14.thumb.png.05ba4baca4f6fea3b613fea3b3c4d43b.png

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Posted (edited)

Good news, the GEFS 12z mean becomes.. ridgy  from the azores next week onwards so there is potential for another high rather like the one we have had so far this week during the last third of may!!👍

GFSAVGEU12_168_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_192_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_216_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_264_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_288_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_312_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_336_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_384_1.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Maybe something like this, or something hot and sultry!👍🔥

GFSP12EU12_270_1.png

GFSP19EU12_306_2.png

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ECM out  to T144' let's compare with UKMO at same time,ECM on the left:

image.thumb.jpg.770d1e4ab5e1991850a7ce2fab740104.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.29c07d4ac7b699fa318e31da61c3b516.jpg

Similar, yes!  But with the ECM we see the next few days...

 

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Is that a new species of Lynx? 

ECM T192:

image.thumb.jpg.50333d7710f5e08143df2d248bc93a58.jpg

 

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I've only just had a chance to look at the Camborne midday sounding. There was some very interesting upper and medium cloud around this morning with some very thick Ci and what looked like very high Ac

2019051512.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.79264fd71eab7f235506121ee58537b4.gif

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