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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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It’s not particularly appealing, probably explains the lack of comments. It’s neither one thing nor the other. At least it’s not looking especially cold to go with it this time.

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4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

At least it’s not looking especially cold to go with it this time.

It doesn't look cold at any stage, just a bit cooler for a time later this week!

Anyway, at least I tried to describe the run in an interesting way.

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Well my view having glanced through the 12s is that beyond this week, the models don't really have much of a clue.  I'd caution against model runs that lead to very unsettled conditions over the UK like the FV3 in FI - this is well beyond the reliable at the moment.  I'd wait for this settled spell to fully take hold (Wednesday) and then see what the model output looks like.  It may surprise when compared to the current output.

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Evening All, very pleasant weather for the next few days but then big changes as flabby areas of low pressures develop over the uk coutersy of Northern blocking...cold uppers still because a very cold Artic, ..coming up with this  set up, Good news for growers, plenty of rain ,plenty of sunshine between the convective showers,  PS  Lovely sky scapes coming up , Thunderstorms etc,  But still a chance of ground frosts as we move into early June...

ecmt850.120.png

h850t850eu-11.png

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The ecm det run is quite complex upstream with high pressure ridging across Alaska into the Arctic complimented by a trough in the eastern Pacific and the vortex lobe feeding into the trough in the north west Atlantic. This trough is orientated under the east European ridge that is extending into Greenland and thus the strong jet running across the southern states and exiting south of the trough diverges in mid Atlantic, courtesy of this and the trough in southern Europe. All of which leaves the UK in a very slack gradient and I would imagine some fairly benign weather with temps a tad above average.

ecmwf_z500aMean_nhem_6.thumb.png.454c1d71b6eda90feaa273179fd332ab.pngindex.thumb.png.315d269a6d5155f01d0a1346556c6b9d.png

No huge disagreement with this from the EPS mean 5-10

1040693276_eps5-10.thumb.png.176a4d1a05c63c6eab12629845ff7d26.png

In the ext period the pattern becomes less amplified and the upper flow does not diverge so a westerly upper flow is maintained across the Atlantic. So perhaps more changeable weather south of Scotland with temps generally around average. The early NOAA is on board not so much the later

9-14.thumb.png.67a4e389b80397bff44732267a7c817a.png610day_03.thumb.gif.f5566c49d3fc7b103bdb483c8d1dc0db.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.db47a97d4c0d6ec32d270771cbe84a1f.gif

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Posted (edited)

ECM ensemble mean, clear at T96 with a split between the Scandi high and the Azores.

image.thumb.jpg.78cd856e9c7f699e0e260e47a797a686.jpg

Roll on to T192, suggests higher pressure to our east, and sod all from the Atlantic:

image.thumb.jpg.8c2169f8ea26a9ee33d65e8064da8c66.jpg

I think however, that things could quickly move towards a more obvious summer warmth regime now, as the operational models react to the longer term signals as shown in the longer term models, this is the transition... 

Edited by Mike Poole

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Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening All, very pleasant weather for the next few days but then big changes as flabby areas of low pressures develop over the uk coutersy of Northern blocking...cold uppers still because a very cold Artic, ..coming up with this  set up, Good news for growers, plenty of rain ,plenty of sunshine between the convective showers,  PS  Lovely sky scapes coming up , Thunderstorms etc,  But still a chance of ground frosts as we move into early June...

ecmt850.120.png

h850t850eu-11.png

Very cold Arctic!!! Alot of Arctic States are currently around 5-10c,even the North Pole is only around - 7c. So I wouldn't say a very cold Arctic at all, Infact there has been considerable  warming recently! Not much to say about the models, apart from expect alot of chopping and changing over the coming days before the settled and warmer conditions finally bed in, perhaps during the final 3rd of the month and beyond. 

Edited by Mattwolves

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7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Very cold Arctic!!! Alot of Arctic States are currently around 5-10c,even the North Pole is only around - 7c. So I wouldn't say a very cold Arctic at all, Infact there has been considerable  warming recently! Not much to say about the models, apart from expect alot of chopping and changing over the coming days before the settled and warmer conditions finally bed in, perhaps during the final 3rd of the month and beyond. 

Sorry you're wrong, but that's for another discussion

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1 minute ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Sorry you're wrong, but that's for another discussion

Actually he's right but now we're getting off topic!😜

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Posted (edited)

Outlook -  A change from the current stable anticyclonic regime to a more unstable cyclonic one  will take place by the weekend. This will briefly lead to temps dipping below average in some regions before recovering and generally rising a tad above average again next week.The detail of the weather may become a bit elusive in this period

The NH 500mb profile and North Atlantic surface analysis and the WV sat image for 0300 UTC

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7792000.thumb.png.0f7ecc07e7bd54598c64a41e3ecff630.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.80af1cdaa27ffea8e3224f8bc61e70c1.gifWV.thumb.JPG.63fadb461a2ae604c1f83e739f563986.JPG

After a chilly start, a touch of frost and fog in some eastern areas of England, it will quickly warm up and become another warm and sunny day. Again a tad cooler in some coastal areas that are effected by a fresh onshore breeze. And there is a fair bit of moisture around towards the top of the troposphere on some of the midnight soundings, and the sat image, so Ci filtering the sunshine cannot be ruled out in some places. And even the odd patch of cloud bubbling up.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.b8c657fccd6b727f765be27f8f786c4d.gif1106621767_maxtu.thumb.png.553a4b89ac3d712f966c8564df949af1.png

1434969676_streamtues.thumb.png.0779e9e76a12d94636b9fd364f65a35d.png1621976738_cloudtues.thumb.png.6f7cd33522ae6190bb5587191225c00c.png

A clear night with some frost and the odd fog patch

PPVG89.thumb.gif.733f2fa55603119012645a7cd425265b.gif

Tomorrow not dissimilar to today with the temp spread favouring the north west and perhaps more Ci around

PPVI89.thumb.gif.7274197825ed8fbd0a91cc26ada16839.gif135443290_maxwed.thumb.png.1279422aa366f4d0a2bc0e040021d770.png

79141561_streamwed.thumb.png.ae08437a2f30156f662bcd7c6bb2610f.png482804788_cloudwed.thumb.png.f96a584237b35cff46c7fed8bcb0fa98.png

Over Wednesday night and through Thursday the high cell is on the move north and although it will generally be another sunny and dry day the increasing easterly wind will lower the temps in the south and some cloud may creep in to western regions with possibly some light rain late on.

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-7921600.thumb.png.31539d3182605c79184bb19cc56ddcc9.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.445847254f7b3692265d9c69d2d2a4c9.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.da15f4dfb6f9fca874f001a2a8fab8cc.gif

857114690_rainth.thumb.png.a5cf09c31443cf284f0ad1fa97eaac3b.png659596398_maxth.thumb.png.6fdf0438d0ac0a27fb1ccbb037a680f1.png

By Friday the low pressure to the south is increasing it's influence and in the strengthening easterly wind an occlusion tracks west across the country initiating a belt of showery rain. And now there is quite a marked regional temp contrast

PPVM89.thumb.gif.faf808aa65cd42071135f0ced919ecaa.gif743414619_rainfr.thumb.png.ea506be0572805b22c1c9bdc376b8981.png2133261188_maxfr.thumb.png.7351520dc82f9920c9e5e85a7a527cde.png

By Saturday the country is under the umbrella of the low pressure so probably a day of sunshine and showers with possibly some longer periods of rain as the occlusion is still over the south west with another adjacent to the east coast. Some regional variation of the temp but pretty near average generally

PPVO89.thumb.gif.6f227ffdcd169bb7b95a27972a339086.gif420096378_rainsat.thumb.png.c99c3f4f11e63626f5c04ae051c03a7a.pngtemp.thumb.png.caa5cc85338d0e777bb0a1134804c318.png

Edited by knocker

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Posted (edited)

I don't particularly want to venture too far into next week as there is a considerable amount of uncertainty vis the evolution. But by midday the gfs has the UK in a slack gradient as the high moves away to the NW and the trough to the south east with a west/east temp contrast

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8353600.thumb.png.b04379dfc309c674572080e7b081ae48.png1853163754_rainmon.thumb.png.39db6a48b2ddcf2d854ab2c50a815bbf.png

But by midday Wednesday the upper low in the NW has intensified and dropped into the mid Atlantic promoting further amplification of the subtropical high over the UK with temps rising again above average

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8526400.thumb.png.9d05b98385fbe59e594549385f5ffdc0.png508699490_warmup.thumb.png.1f6a384572f85306bd165393b9ff904c.png

Edited by knocker

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So, following a, hardly unexpected, cool snap, the 00Z ends with the UK withing an ever-shrinking coolish sandwich:

image.thumb.png.f91f6bffc452b539fafd48c34a83b6c1.pngimage.thumb.png.1f8433d382474b9a419a932289a40077.png 

The FV3 is sort-of similar:

image.thumb.png.5cc2debc367076b93886bf011afa3ed0.pngimage.thumb.png.fe637f8b619e7dcb7e18474ac0f010d6.png 

And the ensembles are nae really all that bad:

image.thumb.png.a055f7fc9ad630ec7bfc0bbbc4241593.pngimage.thumb.png.910949c2241e57af20a02d393ce536a8.png 

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The ecm has some amplification of the subtropical high next week but more in the central Atlantic which merely boosts the high sell on it;s travels west/ Thus the UK remains under the low pressure until it drifts east leaving the UK pretty much in a col.

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_8.thumb.png.f215969cef4d49be9d382886e14172ae.pngecmwf_z500a_nhem_9.thumb.png.853b11dbd125ea528526c9ad76386f6a.png

t180.thumb.png.b3aa2e9a69567ba92d4bb68bfe719305.pngt204.thumb.png.0d9d363357920bad872703c0ffba11ef.png

But towards the end of the week a massive amplification upstream that boost the Bermuda high pressure, so who knows what's next?

t228.thumb.png.90a413538840d0a05d592923babe988f.png

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9 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Actually he's right but now we're getting off topic!😜

Aye, always deliberately types Artic instead of Arctic, he must be a truck driver

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Still not a great deal to sing and shout about after the weekend. With the pressure patterns very slack and slow moving, it's going to be difficult to nail down the detail from day to day, or even the weather type and temperatures. Slight changes will make a big difference. The only thing is that there is a fair amount of mild/warmish air over the continent, so it won't be overly cold.

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It does look like warming up again next week, if we take London as an example, later this week, around friday it could only reach 16c but then rising again through the weekend and up to 21-22c by early next week.👍

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00Z runs look a tad complex- certainly regarding day 7 onwards..

EC det looks an outlier longer term so not sure how much stock can be placed on that run,i suspect it might be a few more days before next week becomes clearer.

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Looking cold at the end of May as Sub 528dam airmass reaching UK

 

viewimage.png

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Looking cold at the end of May as Sub 528dam airmass reaching UK

 

viewimage.png

Wow..lol😜

 

00_336_preciptype.png

ooh-matron-kenneth-williams-carry-on-bouvier-des-flandres-puppies-for-sale-uk.jpg

Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)

Lovely again here today, I tell you what, bring me more of this set up throughout summer, we have literally a complete omega block at present! Unfortunately things go a tad downhill come the weekend, but it's not all gloom, has settled and warmer conditions perhaps dominating again next week!! 

gfs-0-18.png

gfs-0-96 (1).png

gfs-0-156.png

Edited by Mattwolves

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Not sure about that - doesn’t look settled at all to me next week. Low pressure very close by means cloud and showers in many areas, especially in the midlands south. Drier in the north. I think the west of Scotland could be the place to be for the best weather.

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With reference to the rather odd end to the ecm det run. The EPS mean anomaly is indicating some amplification in the Atlantic in the 7-12 period (before returning back) which portends a period of settled weather with temps a little above average.

7-12.thumb.png.602a39f4c7046310c9ccbb39affc2044.png

The clusters reasonable supportive of this

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019051400_216.thumb.png.bcfa828761898eda9d65231d7f742ec7.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019051400_240.thumb.png.5af93f8e8bfee6d896ce8683e2808bc0.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019051400_288.thumb.png.b2d5b9a833f060cb601ffe7a2d8d431d.png

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Not sure about that - doesn’t look settled at all to me next week. Low pressure very close by means cloud and showers in many areas, especially in the midlands south. Drier in the north. I think the west of Scotland could be the place to be for the best weather.

That low pressure is gonna be subject to movement I feel, also worth noting a much more settled last part of May from the 6z....so hopefully yet another fine bank holiday!!! No point in me keep harping on about this though, has its blatantly obvious there are some on here who only want to see, cool, cloudy and wet dross! 

gfs-0-336.png

gfs-1-300.png

Edited by Mattwolves

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Posted (edited)

There's plenty of high pressure and warmth on the Gfs 6z operational so I'm happy with that run..is it perfect?..  of course not!! but for the most part it's showing a very decent end to spring!!!👍

06_372_uk2mtmp.png

06_372_mslp500.png

06_372_ukthickness850.png

Edited by Frosty.

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5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There's plenty of high pressure and warmth on the Gfs 6z operational so I'm happy with that run..is it perfect?..  of course not!! but for the most part it's showing a very decent end to spring!!!👍

There might be high pressure   but some areas in the next 10  days will see between 50-30 mm of rain     maybe a little more for those in the South west  and South Wales.     also Temps in towards the end of that period are Mid Teens at best.  Of course things could change   but it does look like a period of wet weather  (according to that one opp run)  

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