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The Gem 12z turns into a slow moving trough fest during the second half of the run with sunshine and heavy, thundery showers being the main weather type but for most of the week ahead there's cross model agreement on a spell of warmer anticyclonic weather starting tomorrow and lasting longest further north!

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And our old friend, the FV3, is at it again!:oldgrin:

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And the GEFS ensembles are neither here nor there. But there's something for the rainiacs!:oldgood:

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ECM not taking the route to easy Greenland blocking here at T168, T192:

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In contrast to some of the earlier models, and more consistent with earlier runs, hope this trend or backtrack or whatever you want to call it continues!  I don't think this all ends in Greenland!

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Coming back to the near future..welcome change from recently!👍

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20 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gem 12z turns into a slow moving trough fest during the second half of the run with sunshine and heavy, thundery showers being the main weather type but for most of the week ahead there's cross model agreement on a spell of warmer anticyclonic weather starting tomorrow and lasting longest further north!

Personally Karl I think the gem should stick to what it knows better... Namely, forecasting the Canadian weather, and let's face it, that's relatively simple to predict, especially in winter 😂anyhow, ECM to me looks decent, and I'm seeing signs of heights building over Greenland once again!! The models seem a little confused over this currently, and we are all aware how the models really struggle with pinning down HLB, so I feel this is still not a done deal, Infact I'm becoming more confident that we may end up with a better pattern than Initially thought. 

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Posted (edited)

Nice end to the Ecm 12z 👍

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Edited by Frosty.

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30 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Major over analysis of the GFS going on at the moment.... 8 runs a day, far to many, every run bringing something a tad different! Even with Northern blocking we can get some very respectable temperatures in the sun... Its not the doom and gloom some are making it out to be. If we was at the back end of June now, and HLB was still evident, I may be a touch concerned, but even then the final half of summer could end up a treat! Calm yourselves... No dramas!!! 

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  • To be honest I would normally say that models have a high level of Shannon entropy with this set up ,but models have been adimant of a mainly fine week coming up and a breakdown from the south by late Thursday /Friday,  courtesy  of Northern Blocking, must say I'm impressed there is virtually total agreement for a change from both ecm and gfs , okay its probably not the outlook some would want but as we live in the UK ,we can't really expect two years to be exactly the same...historically speaking:gathering:

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1 minute ago, ANYWEATHER said:
  • To be honest I would normally say that models have a high level of Shannon entropy with this set up ,but models have been adimant of a mainly fine week coming up and a breakdown from the south by late Thursday /Friday,  courtesy  of Northern Blocking, must say I'm impressed there is virtually total agreement for a change from both ecm and gfs , okay its probably not the outlook some would want but as we live in the UK ,we can't really expect two years to be exactly the same...historically speaking:gathering:

I kind of agree and not to some extent anyweather, namely ECM seems less keen on this Greenland block which would put us in a much better position moving forward. Yes a repeat of last year by law of averages would say No chance! But a summer of many fine and warm spells I would say are quite high in the percentage scales. We also have to take in to account the amount of warmth currently around our globe, warmer sea temps etc. There is most definitely alot to play for this summer. 👍

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Posted (edited)

Buckling Jetstream in progress..completion by tomorrow, always a good thing in summer..I mean late spring..and summer!!😜

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Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)

GEFS mean at T240 now reluctant to head high heights (who said I can't do poetry) into Greenland, 

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Moving on maybe signs of a summery pattern T384:

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My apologies that the above post was nonsense, but I couldn't delete the charts, here are the correct ones for T240 and T384;

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No to those wanting a Greenland high anyway!

Edited by Mike Poole

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Posted (edited)

ECM mean NH view at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.5ccf871308807221616d05afedda5d30.jpg

Possible ridge to the UK?

GEFS mean at same time:

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My money is on the ECM ensemble here....

Edited by Mike Poole

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Posted (edited)

The ext EPS this evening has developed the theme hinted at a couple of days ago. That is an Aleutian low and quite strong ridging into the Arctic from the NW of N. America with the Canadian vortex lobe and associated trough running south east into the north west Atlantic. This is orientated south of the ridge and positive anomalies over Iceland and Greenland which is now initiated from the subtropical high ridging over the UK.Thus the strong westerly upper flow exiting the NE seaboard diverges in mid Atlantic, courtesy of this and low pressure in southern  Europe.Ergo a very slack gradient over the UK with temps a tad above average

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NOAA is in the same ball park

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Edited by knocker

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Posted (edited)

Well would you Adam and Eve it?  CFS homing in on a more settled set up than previously, here's the last 5 runs Z500 anomalies for June, enjoy:

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Lots of potential for thundery outbreaks there, should be an interesting summer!

Edited by Mike Poole

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To me this is a decent day 10 Ecm 12z ensemble mean, doesn't look unsettled or cool!!👍

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

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Posted (edited)

I think bit by bit we seem to be building heights more N/NE. so far it looks a little more positive in that respect. 

Not bad so far! 

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Edited by Mattwolves

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Posted (edited)

Outlook - sunny and quite warm for a few days before turning cooler and more unsettled. But keep an eye on regional variation of the detail.

The NH 500mb profile and the North Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UTC UK chart.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7619200.thumb.png.175f8db65157511da7b59e2d507a5269.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.c8d3c71d871a8eb70050eef09fd1b355.gif03.thumb.gif.f5de83a1338410863ebbf3fb1b74e9b0.gif

High pressure builds over the UK as the deep trough develops in the Atlantic and once any early morning mist and frost has cleared it will be a warm and sunny day with little wind. Perhaps some light rain for the Shetlands from that stray trough and sea breezes may cool down some coastal regions.

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Cooling down quite quickly this evening under the clear skies with some patchy frost and mist by morning. But cloudier in the north of Scotland and maybe the odd spot of rain from the weakening upper warm front.

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Once the mist and frost clears another sunny and warm day with the usual caveat vis some coastal areas

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Little change over Monday night through Tuesday but the orientation of the high cell is shifting towards the north east as the energy flows and associated troughs put pressure on the ridge.

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The pressure on the ridge increases over Wednesday and Thursday and the high cell is relegated north of Scotland. This results in a quite strong easterly component to the wind, particularly over the southern half of the country, and this is reflected in the regional temp variation. Some cloud might start creeping into the south with the odd shower on Thursday

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Edited by knocker

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So by midday Friday, according to the gfs, the high cell is north of the UK with low pressure over Europe with a conduit running north west to the Labrador Strait region.

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Over the weekend the high pressure migrates west as trough developments occur in the conduit which leads to quite a complex surface analysis with low pressure ingressing the country from the west and south.  Thus quite a bit of showery activity in the fresh E/SE wind although the temps should be around average generally

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Posted (edited)

The ecm is similar vis the general pattern by the weekend, varying a tad on how much traction to give the subtropical high in the Atlantic. So low pressure becoming influential with sunny intervals and showers, with some longer periods of rain. The nature of the analysis lends itself to a very varied regional temp spread over Friday > Monday and the detail best left a while. Suffice it to say at the moment a pretty cold day south of the border on Friday and tending to reverse over the next couple of days.

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Edited by knocker

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A quick look at how the 00Z ends, suggests that the signal, for any substantive Greenland blocking, is receding::oldgood:

image.thumb.png.2da7398bb194fa412c84fb42607a5b3d.pngimage.thumb.png.752f6b75913404ec00da4f38fcd73000.png 

But the FV3, on the other hand, may give some limited solace to the Friends of The Greenland Anticyclone (or the 2012 Committee?):

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The ensembles (op especially) suggest a good, long sleep might be as good an option as any, towards month's end...But the rain will be most welcome!:

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The 500 mb anomaly charts are a bit of a mish mash, see below, so no real solid guidance from them at the moment

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Certainly the fairly solid signal all 3 gave for ridging being the main player are much less so

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Certainly looks like we've a glorious week in store, and the promise of welcome rain looks good for arable farmers. Let's hope that east and northeast Scotland benefits too, at some point?:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.43a4185c5be2cd60bcf45b725b7e0cd3.pngimage.thumb.png.cbdeac57aa9581e41c10fca13680a9fb.png 

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