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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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Here are the 00Z GEFS temp and precip ensembles:

image.thumb.png.8c2d7ff97aeb82d68a7d20650bb9599c.pngimage.thumb.png.18c1051ae0038653d8f719cf3ed65e58.png 

'Cool and changeable' might do it?

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The Ecm 00z ensemble mean day 10 shows light at the end of the chilly unsettled tunnel for warmer and more settled weather eventually to push up from the south!👍

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.

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Saturday look chilly but bright...the search for positives goes on!:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.bf0732036d7beedd2c690600b92429a7.pngimage.thumb.png.d7f82a1f970a7387003179f25273833b.png 

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Some sun and some very big thundery showers, and not too cold:

image.thumb.png.c172230fdae07b9430db1cbcb9b9e25a.pngimage.thumb.png.f7d673bfd85b99cf577b4dcbd918aabf.png 

But the search for the plume goes on...

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In the ext period this morning the EPS mean anomaly has the amplification over Europe subsiding, particularly the trough, which is much less intense and has slipped south. This facilitates the subtropical high to ridge north east adjacent to the UK and back the upper flow portending a quieter spell of weather with the surface temp nudging a tad above average..

9-14.thumb.png.c39c5b10bf0c9c1de8e9424a2591046a.png

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Really very unsettled and cool 6z operational but eventually things start to improve from 17th May 👍😉

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Just now, Frosty. said:

Really very unsettled and cool 6z operational but eventually things start to improve from 17th May 👍😉

Aye Karl, it's a long way off, but perhaps the GFS is, at long last, starting to converge with what the background signals are suggesting?

image.thumb.png.1941cc3552de2180ddf836e04aac4a5c.pngimage.thumb.png.c71c6e1d59f120be9ae30026f0efd8c3.png :yahoo:

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Looking a bit shabby guys for the next 10 day's, bar a drier spell up until the Bank Holiday. Low pressure seems to take over during next week with a fair bit of rain and showers in the mix, on a positive, temps do recover a tad!! But it won't be feeling to warm in any wind and rain. Just having a glance at the 6z operational, and tbh, it kind of ties in with some forecasters thoughts of an improvement by mid month, and hopefully beyond. High pressure building in from the SW! So here is hoping for a much better 2nd half of the month! 

gfs-0-276.png

gfs-0-300.png

gfs-0-324.png

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I agree with the comments this morning regarding approx mid may onwards, the portends are good for a switch from trough domination to something more ridge / high pressure influenced, ergo, warmer.🌞

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Longer term the portends are good or at least better from the GEFS 6z with an increasing chance of high pressure becoming established from around mid may, possibly a little earlier or later, ergo, becoming warmer eventually...of course this is only based on the 6z data.

GFSAVGEU06_276_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_348_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_372_1.png

GFSP01EU06_372_1.png

GFSP04EU06_372_1.png

GFSP07EU06_372_1.png

GFSP15EU06_372_2.png

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56 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Really very unsettled and cool 6z operational but eventually things start to improve from 17th May 👍😉

You couldn't find a chart that brings it forward to the 13th could you? Arrive at Centreparcs Longleat on the 13th and leave on the 17th.

The last 3  years we've had non stop drizzle, or grey skies and nippy and last year came back from Elveden on the glorious Friday 4th May (after a naff few days there) that had office workers leaving early for the bank holiday and took me 4 hours to get home rather than less than 2. Most miffed.

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1 minute ago, tadpole said:

You couldn't find a chart that brings it forward to the 13th could you?

I would be delighted to if the models allow it, actually the 6z mean suggests that could be possible but there's plenty of chilly unsettled weather to get through before then.👍

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9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Longer term the portends are good or at least better from the GEFS 6z with an increasing chance of high pressure becoming established from around mid may, possibly a little earlier or later, ergo, becoming warmer eventually...of course this is only based on the 6z data.

GFSAVGEU06_276_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_348_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_372_1.png

GFSP01EU06_372_1.png

GFSP04EU06_372_1.png

GFSP07EU06_372_1.png

GFSP15EU06_372_2.png

Apologies, I'm a novice where charts are concerned. What do they mean for Southern Spain/Balearic Islands?

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5 minutes ago, Neil Harris said:

Apologies, I'm a novice where charts are concerned. What do they mean for Southern Spain/Balearic Islands?

It means young man..... Feeling hot, hot, hot!!! 

giphy-3.gif

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10 minutes ago, Neil Harris said:

Apologies, I'm a novice where charts are concerned. What do they mean for Southern Spain/Balearic Islands?

Matt answered it perfectly.👍🔥🏖️😎🍦..feeling hot, hot, hot

Edited by Frosty.

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It's not often you see the London snow row hitting 10 in May 

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.37b06ead1b9e6a721223700a19ab93c8.png

It's generally below average to average at best for the next few weeks in the south

A similar picture for Scotland with snow looking quite likely over the next few days

gefsens850Edinburgh0.thumb.png.4f5aa4e6c22927f1bb26585d841825f2.png

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5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

It's not often you see the London snow row hitting 10 in May 

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.37b06ead1b9e6a721223700a19ab93c8.png

It's generally below average to average at best for the next few weeks in the south

A similar picture for Scotland with snow looking quite likely over the next few days

gefsens850Edinburgh0.thumb.png.4f5aa4e6c22927f1bb26585d841825f2.png

Next few weeks!!! Come on, ensembles can't be giving a pattern for a few weeks.... 10 day's at best! 

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2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Next few weeks!!! Come on, ensembles can't be giving a pattern for a few weeks.... 10 day's at best! 

I personally can't see a big change until the 2nd half of the month we've got plenty of heat building over southern Europe so a warm up could be quite rapid if things fell into place. We're just going to have to see out this spell of unusually cold temps first 

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6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

I personally can't see a big change until the 2nd half of the month we've got plenty of heat building over southern Europe so a warm up could be quite rapid if things fell into place. We're just going to have to see out this spell of unusually cold temps first 

Thanks for clarification on that SS, I agree 100%. Was a bit worried when you said a few weeks, would have been taking us into june... Yeh, the 2nd half of the month is a good call 👍

Edited by Mattwolves

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39 minutes ago, tadpole said:

You couldn't find a chart that brings it forward to the 13th could you? Arrive at Centreparcs Longleat on the 13th and leave on the 17th.

The last 3  years we've had non stop drizzle, or grey skies and nippy and last year came back from Elveden on the glorious Friday 4th May (after a naff few days there) that had office workers leaving early for the bank holiday and took me 4 hours to get home rather than less than 2. Most miffed.

Not really relevant to this thread but living local to there I do know it has a microclimate. Always cooler/ mistier there than in Warminster when conditions are unsettled.

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Only just seen the Gem 0z and it doesn't end badly at all..high pressure gradually building in!👍

gem-0-240.png

Edited by Frosty.

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2 hours ago, tadpole said:

You couldn't find a chart that brings it forward to the 13th could you? Arrive at Centreparcs Longleat on the 13th and leave on the 17th.

The last 3  years we've had non stop drizzle, or grey skies and nippy and last year came back from Elveden on the glorious Friday 4th May (after a naff few days there) that had office workers leaving early for the bank holiday and took me 4 hours to get home rather than less than 2. Most miffed.

That's alright we're going to Tenby from Mon - Fri next week and apart from Mon & Tues morning it's looking wet & miserable 🙈 was really hoping for some decent weather as we're doing lots of walking and going on boat trips! 

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Lerwick in the Am air below 10, 000 ft at midday ( surface temp 4.5C ) behind the multiple cold fronts but a different airmass above

PPVA89.thumb.gif.ca2533872f02529778d99bab6bd850de.gif2019050212.03005.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.30baa1b061af70f0844b2df343cf4fe4.gif

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