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Posted (edited)

Scotland/North looking like the warmest by Tuesday, With 21c possible for the end of the Great Glen..

 

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Edited by Polar Maritime

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Here is the icon take on things, plenty of settled Conditions and rather warm at times, especially in more Northern and Western areas. Becoming more unsettled by the end of next week and weekend, but I wouldn't by any means consider it a write off... Also worth noting some more positive signs as regards to widely more settled and warmer conditions later in the month, from some of the more senior forecasters!!! Hopefully we are close to major improvements.... Patience folks, all good things come to those that wait... So I'm told.. 

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Meanwhile, back in the Bat Cave (aka T+153) the cold cack oop norf seems to be weakening? That could of course be an artefact of the 12Z?


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I would certainly take the 12Z; it's a vast improvement on what came earlier!

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Beats being hit with a wet fish! 

 

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Posted (edited)

I'm always  banging on about what a great model the Gfs FV3 / Parallel is and this from the 12z is the living proof of why I always say that..to boldly go where no model has gone before!!!😜👽

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Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)

It's the GFS, Jim, but not as we know it! image.png.848225bfa82d959397e67c6be5215b99.png

                                                                image.thumb.png.b714c59f5a89a24e00281243d73e6d39.png              It does end on a very positive note:        image.thumb.png.793cb528adb515bd0db8fd560a842409.png:yahoo: 

Edited by Ed Stone

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For the most part, the GEFS 12z mean is..well, you can see for yourselves👍:oldgood:

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Holy moly Batman, the ensembles are.........okay, I suppose.:unknw:

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Some cracking weather coming up next week and some really respectable temps, especially up North.... Scotland I officially give you the week off, hit the deckchairs or the beach.... You deserve it... 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

 Scotland I officially give you the week off, hit the deckchairs or the beach.... You deserve it... 

Indeed, Scotland normally gets the poo end of the stick, certainly in summer but the models are looking a lot better for the week ahead, actually, for most of next week, that's the case for the rest of the uk too!👍🌞 

Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)

By Thursday and Friday the troughs have taken their toll albeit no sign of rain with the ecm

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Edited by knocker

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4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, Scotland normally gets the poo end of the stick, certainly in summer but the models are looking a lot better for the week ahead, actually, for most of next week, that's the case for the rest of the uk too!👍🌞 

But some models/forecasts are better than others? image.thumb.png.e4193cecb17f15aa56f0a1cf1a400d77.png

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17 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Some longer term musings from me tonight.  My position coming into spring (my 'prior' in Bayesian speak)

Interesting post Mike... Cheers.. Is this Bayesien a new language or something, has I haven't been able to look it up... 😉😂

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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Interesting post Mike... Cheers.. Is this Bayesien a new language or something, has I haven't been able to look it up... 😉😂

I prefer this approach myself, Matt...But, can you read more than three lines, before your mind goes all fuzzy?🤪

https://searchenterpriseai.techtarget.com/definition/fuzzy-logic

Edited by Ed Stone
That's better!

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Posted (edited)

Really pleasant spell just around the corner as a blocking high takes over!!..signs we could tap into a warming continental flow longer term, warming up during the coming days too!!👍

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Edited by Frosty.

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Not too bad from the ECM tonight, it seems we might see some warm temperatures in the west around midweek after all. Although it looks like temperatures could fall back again towards the end of the week in what is quite an odd setup. 

The good news is that the longer the easterly setup persists, the warmer it should become over time at this time of year. The supply of cool air will simply run out with a warming of the near continent inevitable from mid-May onwards.

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1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Some cracking weather coming up next week and some really respectable temps, especially up North.... Scotland I officially give you the week off, hit the deckchairs or the beach.... You deserve it... 

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It's looking a really good week next week away from the east coast, just a bit chilly early and late. I'm going to predict a high of 24C somewhere in the west 🙂

Am I permitted a slightly off topic comment just for once - I just don't where else to post it - Are people watching "Hurricane Man" on Dave Channel? Amazing show, shot by people chasing the eye walls of last year's big hurricanes. A must watch for weather fans. 

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Latest from ICON 18z here T96:

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And T120 (end of run)

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All good for next week settled weather,but what follows is the question?

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2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Some longer term musings from me tonight.  My position coming into spring (my 'prior' in Bayesian speak) was that summer would be decent and hot one, but less settled overall than last year (see previous posts I think around early April), with more thundery breakdowns.

How are things looking now?  On no account can it be argued that the latter half of Spring is similar to last year!  I think some of that can be put down to the late and exceptionally strong final warming in the stratosphere, which has resulted in the kind of high latitude blocking that those of a cold persuasion crave in the winter, this year without result. 

But that should dissipate, and if it does where does it leave us?  Long range model output over the last few months has favoured high pressure domination in the region of the UK, although as far as I can see with more variability as to precise location re the UK (see my post yesterday on latest CFS runs).  Sea surface temperatures are interesting, the current ones conducive to N Europe high pressure:

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Compare mid April last year and mid June last year:

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Clearly in April SST subdued near the UK after the Beast From the East, by June that's all gone after the hot second half of Spring last year.  We haven't had that this year, so we could end up in a similar place by mid June, close to UK, but we need to watch the heat from Azores to UK, very strong last year, a signal there this year but weaker at the moment.  The cold water south of Greenland is present in all plots though - some continuity there.

So there may be some similarities with model output, SSTs going into summer, also atmospheric  angular momentum (AAM) generally above average looks likely (see recent post by @Tamara ). 

Todays models, here GFS, FV3, GEM and ECM on NH view at T240:

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Whilst the blocking is to the north, the models are not suggesting a rampant Greenland high.  Remember last year, in May the driest warmest weather was in the NW, only translating to the heatwave further south in mid June.  

Different so far, but is the journey into summer 2019 about to join a similar track to 2018, but a month or a bit more down the line.  Will be interesting to see! 

Very brilliantly fantastically amazing analysis as always 👏. Are you saying you think this summer could be a backloaded one then? With our June being rather like our May of last year (warm spells with unsettled) and then July and August being hot?

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Posted (edited)

The evolution of last evening's EPS anomalies arrives at a conclusion that has been indicated recently. Upstream an Aleutian low with quite strong ridging in north west North America into the Arctic. supplemented by twin vortex lobes Northern Russia and Canada, the latter associated with a trough in the NW Atlantic which during the evolution creates a weak negatively tilted trough all the way across the atlantic to low pressure over Europe

The creation of the trough in Europe disrupted the ridging of the subtropical high over the UK but with the aid of amplification of the European subtropical zone this rapidly became strong ridging north west into eastern Greenland via Iceland which of course neatly accommodates the aforementioned trough

All of this leads to pretty inert Atlantic with a very slack gradient over the UK with the tricky surface analysis something the det. runs will need to sort but there doesn't appear to be the likelihood of anything untoward popping up, and probably the south most at risk of any systems creeping in from the north west. Surface temps do look set to perhaps become a tad above average

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Last evening's NOAA pretty much in the same ball park

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Edited by knocker

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