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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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Posted (edited)

There is some semblance of continuity in the EPS evolution of the past three day if one uses a little poetic license The general evolution that has hardened up this evening is for the subtropical high ridging north over the UK to come under pressure from the NW and the NE from the energy flows which eventually results in two main developments. One; the migration  of positive anomalies north west and a ridge into eastern Greenland and two; a trough in the Bay of Biscay area and negative anomalies over western Europe  All of which results in a pretty inert central and eastern Atlantic with probably a light easterly drift over the UK with temps varying around the average And not a lot of rain around.

10-15.thumb.png.ae9dcf6ea6a013dff88e1207270a2fb9.png7-12.thumb.png.3f5913394c13d2c2693abfe068203b79.png4-9.thumb.png.15b2384c1c4e818aeea1d1402f297aef.png

NOAA is in the same ball park. but just to reiterate the obvious that the detail awaits sorting by the det output

814day_03.thumb.gif.54a4ea76d03325e81f17ffb7937315a4.gif

Edited by knocker

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12 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Not sure why we are hypothesising about Summer and saying it could be miserable based off some northern blocking from early May.

I suspect it's descending into trolling now. How can anyone know that summer will be miserable when we can't be sure of what is happening after T120? People in this forum should know better. What you want to see may not be what will occur, I think last winter taught a lot people that.

May 2013 was miserable and look at how that summer turned out. Northern blocking can also lead to heat with the Atlantic air cut off.... and northern blocking isn't even that unusual during May. Easterlies can be just as common as westerlies.

You're right.

The weather in May doesn't dictate the summer pattern- however in some years it can dictate the early summer pattern as it did last year.

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12 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Not sure why we are hypothesising about Summer and saying it could be miserable based off some northern blocking from early May.

I suspect it's descending into trolling now. How can anyone know that summer will be miserable when we can't be sure of what is happening after T120? People in this forum should know better. What you want to see may not be what will occur, I think last winter taught a lot people that.

May 2013 was miserable and look at how that summer turned out. Northern blocking can also lead to heat with the Atlantic air cut off.... and northern blocking isn't even that unusual during May. Easterlies can be just as common as westerlies.

I'm sure I read a post, just the other day, suggesting positive signs, for next winter? Then again, I might have been in the Twilight Zone!🤪

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There has been alot of doom and gloom in here today regarding a dire May and possibly summer to come, was beginning to feel a little depressed over it... But hey ho every cloud and all that!!! So I will finish off this evening with a snap shot of mid June, but don't forget, this is a projection... Mattwolves will not be responsible for any failures of this forecast, all rights are strictly prohibited etc, etc. 👍😉

cfs-0-942.png

cfs-2-942.png

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3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

There has been alot of doom and gloom in here today regarding a dire May and possibly summer to come, was beginning to feel a little depressed over it... But hey ho every cloud and all that!!! So I will finish off this evening with a snap shot of mid June, but don't forget, this is a projection... Mattwolves will not be responsible for any failures of this forecast, all rights are strictly prohibited etc, etc. 👍😉

cfs-0-942.png

cfs-2-942.png

Predicting June is well above my pay grade but I can confidently predict a large blocking anticyclone next week!👍🌞😜

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

You're right.

The weather in May doesn't dictate the summer pattern- however in some years it can dictate the early summer pattern as it did last year.

If it was November I would be raising eyebrows but the atmospheric circulation patterns in May are much less clearly defined...

Looking at the latest anomaly charts you can see we still have this dreaded cold blob in the North Atlantic in spite of northern blocking.

image.thumb.png.e7d378896bd3cf3b4bca8b3f9877b350.png

There is a signal for warmer then average temperatures over central Europe with that anomaly pattern and perhaps indications of a more westerly flow (e.g. 2015) but other years with a similar pattern have produced very different summers.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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Posted (edited)

Spring once again serving synoptics that deviate from the general norm (i.e. atlantic in quiet mode, slow moving patterns, with airstreams more prone to attack from the north and east) - alas have to say it, but for cold and snow lovers, the synoptics of the last month or so and as shown for the near future - would be a dream at any stage from late Nov to late March).. Anyhow its not, its May and quite normal really in this respect.

Models are showing the ridge set to build in over the weekend quickly migrating north as we move through next week, becoming a very strong northern block and allowing cool air from the east to invade - the source coming from NE Russia/Scandi rather than central europe. Western parts will fayre best, with respectable temps and sunshine and dry weather, east coast as often happens in late spring will suffer the most, with low cloud and the classic sea fret/haar combo with low temps and possible drizzle, southern and central parts could quickly become plagued with cloud and poor temps.

I was feeling quite positive yesterday for longer term prospects through mid-May, much less so today..

Edited by damianslaw

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The 18z GFS has a -NAO that intense that it's keeping the jet so far S that LP barely affects the N at all. That's one big Greeny HP

image.thumb.png.bc6f6d7bddb14d9a03899d68050fe8c4.png

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Posted (edited)

The NH 500mb profile (the upper low near Newfoundland is one of the key players in the upcoming evolution) and the North Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UTC UK chart

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7446400.thumb.png.0f476e97e43200dcb4abc32c4c8c0f87.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.7cb6e3edca3b360ba334c5e6f1d15bf3.gif03.thumb.gif.479290a7b2571060dbcb2ab55d88a8bd.gif

The old occlusion is still producing some persistent rain across central England at the moment but this will quite quickly cease only to give way to frequent showers popping up over Wales and central/southern England through the day, some of which could be heavy with hail and thunder in the mix. There will also be a more concentrated area of showers over N. Ireland and Scotland courtesy of a trough.And by mid afternoon an occlusion has sneaked into the Channel and rain from this may well effect southern Cornwall and Devon

PPVE89.thumb.gif.4c847f542343142ffbff0d883b2aebb9.gif2035226412_maxfrid.thumb.png.aa36be75bef57ec73b80dcb878b24684.pngp07.thumb.png.c13e31b723f8b47e017527c73f1b05f5.pngp12.thumb.png.5b515d498b333cf12e72c15ac3726597.pngp15.thumb.png.395e3e9d2775e2148168eebec4da1cde.pngp18.thumb.png.127567a1501cec3017a4154fbf299cf8.png

The showers will slowly dissipate through this evening, perhaps a few lingering around some eastern regions, and most of the rain from the occlusion will remain in the Channel before clearing by morning. Some patchy mist/fog and frost as per this morning.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.e42dbd40fe0fd6d381f04797f2e737ea.gif

By tomorrow the transition is underway as high pressure builds so dry and sunny day for most but still showers around associated with troughs to the north west and eastern regions.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7576000.thumb.png.981b71c0557f90bf5b6a0d343b63ecb0.pngPPVI89.thumb.gif.cb8c10ee42f9fc36b4bf458732caedd1.gif

183040085_maxsat.thumb.png.b0f4e8aaecb507b02715c233417bb687.pngr13.thumb.png.7411b70e325b86cad9d674890aa0f3d6.png

Over Saturday night and through Sunday the high cell continues to build and is centered just off Skeggy at midday So a sunny and dry day with temps around average, perhaps a tad above, but a bit chillier in the north and along the east coast.

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.1376411e970c29f969fc1d81339c05f8.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.4b8806622474a4577286ead4dc9d6dac.gif1918163672_maxsun.thumb.png.5ee9876abf31e3752fb5552c1b114854.png

But over Sunday further amplification of the high pressure zones has occurred which has facilitated the upper trough developing in the eastern Mediterranean and also the Atlantic trough has received further injections from Canada. These developments continue over Monday and Tuesday which do not have an immediate impact on the weather over the UK as the high cell remains in situ over the North Sea  So another couple of dry and mainly sunny days and quite warm although there may well be some regional variations and in particular along some coastal areas

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7748800.thumb.png.f9e213a967873a0d76103eefaed76ae7.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7835200.thumb.png.165a680450bd40e38cbfdceacab43e96.png

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Edited by knocker

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Posted (edited)

So to continue with the role of the two troughs and by Thursday the ridge has been disrupted and the surface high cell forced north. Thus a more easterly component to the wind, albeit very light, so perhaps not a massive impact on eastern coastal regions with temps generally still a little above average.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8008000.thumb.png.8b7794a212b51b276495578718f93abe.pngindex.thumb.png.aabac9e3432f11c916c06360033f33cc.png1827572260_maxthu.thumb.png.32c657e99977c0f627dc783e767f7512.png

But by Friday the troughs have taken closer order and a low has arrived off the coast of Cornwall with some rain and strengthening winds effecting the country. This is of course according to the gfs and subject to adjustment

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8094400.thumb.png.2c084f1a917b4e2139229ab05150ce61.png1846656459_rainfr.thumb.png.02b96e10a648274a941472828170d811.png

Edited by knocker

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Ens for the convection this PM

ps_reflec_d02_21.thumb.png.b984ecdceb7c8b5c63f058ccd69f6e17.png

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Just a slight adjustment of position of the high cell

t144.thumb.png.66c886cbb38396783e5a585a4a88d5ed.pngwed.thumb.png.b73cae0068ee9bedaaf5e9a6c7d00f53.pngthurs.thumb.png.56b4ca2ddf7de05b3462d15ca5244dc9.png

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One things that's apparentish, from the 00Z, is that the PV remnant seems to be becoming increasingly diluted. Not that that necessarily makes the pattern any less of a mess::unknw:

image.thumb.png.f421ea4f77750c66bb6a41a3cfe146b1.png image.thumb.png.bf81c4f8d0c17108e417f96305148eab.png

The FV3 however, is not looking quite so spiffing. Rubbish model!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.df833e19aae32ab61509dd56965b3d50.pngimage.thumb.png.4c0b2ce661e22468438afb00e3b9720d.png 

The GEFS ensembles are (apart from their being rather meh, that is) not bad at all:

image.thumb.png.747d88d25232969f471d833944b5d923.pngimage.thumb.png.c5fafec34d38b9725f1551f5af9840cb.png 

Roll on the final appearance of a clear summer pattern?:oldgood:


 

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Hardly earth-shatteringly brilliant, but at least the threat of -5C 850hPa uppers is on the wane...:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.bb5af8aaa234b14a2a6613f9addb6454.pngimage.thumb.png.dfa48390fea7c0ffe2ce71f8765e087f.png 

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Posted (edited)

But this would be a belter of a plume-thundery breakdown scenario: it would even rival all those 'superblizzards' that never materialise, through the winter months!:shok:

image.thumb.png.e40c7d01ca9c8368ac51996ad618309a.pngimage.thumb.png.22d992e14e5a40f038cdb1de36a0e41e.png 

image.thumb.png.003d1932c79d26b44f521bfe7d31f9cc.png:oldgrin:

Edited by Ed Stone

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In the past 48 hours, the clusters have become pretty consistent:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019051000_192.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019051000_300.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019051000_360.

So by D7, high pressure slipping north and a fairly strong Euro trough. More of a threat of rain for the south than the north, better weather west rather than east. North-western areas could continue to do fairly well.

Between D11 and D15, heights continue to look best to the north, ridging is generally still absent from Europe, and if a trough develops in the Atlantic it'll probably stay a long way west. This means we'll probably continue to look east for our weather.

With rigding likely to continue to be too far north to put the UK under a block, and euro troughing likely to prevent a concerted push of heat from southern areas, there is no realistic prospect of a heatwave in the next 15 days.

Much will depend on the behaviour of the euro trough and whether further troughing can push south from arctic regions. If the latter happens once more, then the May CET will probably end up substantially below average. On the other hand, if euro troughing can become fairly shallow and stay south of us, it will be decent enough for most away from the east coast, and above average conditions for western areas may continue. 

A best early guess for the period 17th-25th May, then: In the west, could be for mostly fine with many sunny days, in the east cold/dreary, with occasional inclement spells in the far south which even more occasionally might push north for a time. A good time to holiday in Wales, Lancashire, Cumbria, Northern Ireland or west of the Highlands!

 

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Rather like Katie Price in search of a bag of cement, the 06Z FV3 isn't exactly a thing-of-beauty::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.a98d7b61207fcb939f91405000355b30.pngimage.thumb.png.2da4a3aab3d914c3c5538acb3209891f.png 

 

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I've seen the future and it's bright, not orange, but certainly yellow... Perhaps finally we start to warm things up later this month! 

gfs-1-324.png

gfs-0-324 (1).png

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The GEFS ensembles speaks volumes: War & Peace in plebeian Latin, read by Jacob Rees-Mogg? :shok:

image.thumb.png.2b429c6399ad1f494be7dbf357a7ac2a.pngimage.thumb.png.2641af97bef78639da38e2e5de4e9998.png  🤪

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JMA and 500 hPa forecasts looking much better after yesterday’s stinkers. Average to below average precipitation and warmer than average temperatures. Deep breath needed I think after seeing this as it restores a bit of hope from my own perspective. Signs that the weather may not all be that bad going into early June then 🤞

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Only just had a peek at the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, not checked any other models yet but if that's anything to go by the Atlantic is dead in the water as far as the uk is concerned, it looks very blocked indeed!!👍

The next week looks nice I think. All change come next Friday on these said models but fingers crossed HP can hold on for a while as I don’t want my winter coat out in the Summer it’ll get worn out and I’m skint 😂

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Posted (edited)

In a nutshell the GEFS 6z mean looks blocked throughout with heights to the north, a very slack / flabby looking pattern with nothing as such from the Atlantic sector.

Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)

Already a better run than the 6z, With High Pressure more West over the UK by the start of the week bringing slightly warmer uppers. 

396495199_viewimage-2019-05-10T165956_035.thumb.png.fa27a948141ba7ae17bbad79fd6e28c2.png1205651556_viewimage-2019-05-10T170014_593.thumb.png.943ae683549eead3a449fd13176dbb26.png

Edited by Polar Maritime

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The ukmo 12h shows high pressure firmly in control for most of next week with plenty of fine, sunny and pleasantly warm weather on the menu.🌞👍

UW72-21.gif

UW96-21.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

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