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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

looks like cooler temps and sea fret here

ECM1-168.GIF?09-0ECM1-192.GIF?09-0

I'm not going to fret about it, that's in an unreliable timeframe!👍😜:help:

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Seems like we’re gonna have to wait until mid June for it to start to settle down completely. I could see a 2013 summer set out, with warm but unstable air, if there’s thunderstorms I hope they’re at night. However back to May and I’m looking forward to this spell of upcoming settled weather indicated by all the models, may be a little bit cooler (high teens rather than low 20’s) but at least it’s settled. How long it lasts is still quite unknown however it’ll be refreshing compared to what we’ve had. GFS models tend to have it dying off on Thursday or Friday, ahead ECMWF has hints of it continuing to the end of the month. There’s extreme conflict in the models beyond that so to people making up long range predictions based on the 11th of May ECMWF model at 9:30pm at night (including me lol), let’s wait for a trend first! 😂

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21 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

ECM. Yum, yuk and yuk. Apart from 3 or so days of sun and chilly temps, the outlook is total sh!!e 

Northern blocking and a pattern that would never show in winter, but then shows relentlessly approaching summer.

Absolutely disgusting. I'm out. 

Those kind of charts aren't as bad as they look in May, unless you get stuck under a front (or live in Great Yarmouth). 

Hey, anyone seen the Atlantic by D10? Completely gone! 

 

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4 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

I will come back again in June, hopefully when this crap is over and some warmth materialises. Until then

CHOW

I would leave it until July, the CFS looks crap for June!😉

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Just now, Frosty. said:

I would leave it until July, the CFS looks crap for June!😉

No it doesn't, Karl, see my post earlier.  High pressure in variable places, but it looks to dominate close to the UK in most if not all runs, I think June could be very interesting, either hot with thundery interludes, or less warm with mix of settled and unsettled.  

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

No it doesn't, Karl, see my post earlier.  High pressure in variable places, but it looks to dominate close to the UK in most if not all runs, I think June could be very interesting, either hot with thundery interludes, or less warm with mix of settled and unsettled.  

I looked at the CFS charts from a recent run and it shows low pressure domination?..January 2020 also shows an easterly!!👍

Edited by Frosty.

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Just now, Frosty. said:

I looked at the CFS charts from a recent run and it shows low pressure domination?

Beijing Climate Centre showed this too, northern blocking and low pressures. CFS does look awful in general for both June and July in the models I’ve seen, but I’m happy to be corrected of course

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Posted (edited)

Interesting comment from man with a beard, the Atlantic seems to have gone, perhaps to the Bermuda triangle!! OK its relatively weak in May anyway, then you have Northern blocking restricting it.... And for me, and a big possibility... Very low solar minimum.... If this jet remains weak throughout the summer, then things will become, eventually very rosey! 

Edited by Mattwolves

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Just now, Frosty. said:

I looked at the CFS charts from a recent run and it shows low pressure domination?

Yes, but that is exactly the point - a recent run - every time I post CFS charts I add the caveat that it must be interpreted as an average of a number of runs given the timescale it is forecasting re June 3-7 weeks away, one run on it's own can be very misleading. 

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4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I looked at the CFS charts from a recent run and it shows low pressure domination?..January 2020 also shows an easterly!!

That was probably the operational Karl, and not the many various runs Mike is summarising from. 

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27 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Those kind of charts aren't as bad as they look in May, unless you get stuck under a front (or live in Great Yarmouth). 

Hey, anyone seen the Atlantic by D10? Completely gone! 

 

I’d much rather have Atlantic weather than easterlies in May....at least temps would be on the decent side rather than 4-5c below average like they have been, plus the leaden skies would be no more. Damn North Sea.

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In winter, coldies would be swooning over a mean like this..but in may, they may be doing something else!!👍😁

EDM1-216.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

ECM. Yum, yuk and yuk. Apart from 3 or so days of sun and chilly temps, the outlook is total sh!!e 

Northern blocking and a pattern that would never show in winter, but then shows relentlessly approaching summer.

Absolutely disgusting. I'm out. 

Well 2007 seemed to be the 'step change' summer that preceded that run of cold winters around the turn of the decade so maybe a N blocking summer might not be bad news going forward. The thing is recent years had us locked into a predominantly +NAO pattern...summer and winter.

Edited by CreweCold

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20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, but that is exactly the point - a recent run - every time I post CFS charts I add the caveat that it must be interpreted as an average of a number of runs given the timescale it is forecasting re June 3-7 weeks away, one run on it's own can be very misleading. 

I tend to stick CFS forecasts (along with MetO and teleconnections stuff) into my box called 'background signals', Mike. If I didn't, I think I'd go ever-so-slightly mad!🤪

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I personally don't think ECM is the write of some seem to be making out... Yes, it doesn't smack of Mediterranean conditions, but its still relatively benign, just look how slack the pressure is over and around us! No tight isobars either, it could certainly be worse.. 

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-240.gif

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23 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

No it doesn't, Karl, see my post earlier.  High pressure in variable places, but it looks to dominate close to the UK in most if not all runs, I think June could be very interesting, either hot with thundery interludes, or less warm with mix of settled and unsettled.  

Mike no offence mate as I enjoy reading ones posts but...you just basically said June will be either hot with thundery interludes, or less warm with mix of settled or unsettled. (Basically described every possible outcome for a typical June month - you are going to be spot on with regards to that month - whatever the outcome! 😉)

In the meantime a glorious few days ahead (Monday onwards) for the West of Scotland and the usual hotspots. (Kinloss for example)

6E81C0BC-D75A-4DB4-B464-0301EC2D3065.thumb.png.ffa325e5ecbd797624c1323e6d631f12.png

0A79DBE1-4744-401B-984D-BCC1DA26E9E0.thumb.png.5aa8529f71d76d5da540e9adfc2e8573.png

8274C70E-65CB-4E17-8990-C7E90ECA17B4.thumb.png.d7c5ca680d51de75aa814eadf31fbcf5.png

We usually get our best weather at this time of year although I will be hoping for a June like last year. (30 degrees in Glasgow for example) 

Roll on some warm and sunny weather - hopefully a taster of things to come in Summer! 

Bring me sunshine...☀️

 

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

I tend to stick CFS forecasts (along with MetO and teleconnections stuff) into my box called 'background signals', Mike. If I didn't, I think I'd go ever-so-slightly mad!🤪

I agree, Pete, wholeheartedly, but it is with that box of background signals (long range models, ENSO, GSDM, stratosphere, MO long rangers etc. etc. i.e. the whole box of frogs) in mind that I view the operational day to day model runs.  It's enough, yes, to make you go bonkers, sometimes! 

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9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well 2007 seemed to be the 'step change' summer that preceded that run of cold winters around the turn of the decade so maybe a N blocking summer might not be bad news going forward. The thing is recent years had us locked into a predominantly +NAO pattern...summer and winter.

Yes crew good points, even though I love the warm summery weather at this stage of the year, I would happily give it all up right now to see a pattern like this emerging come December. 👍

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Evening All!  Fine weather to come after this weekend  for a time ,then models show we are back to square one this time next week 

h850t850eu-10.png

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I agree, Pete, wholeheartedly, but it is with that box of background signals (long range models, ENSO, GSDM, stratosphere, MO long rangers etc. etc. i.e. the whole box of frogs) in mind that I view the operational day to day model runs.  It's enough, yes, to make you go bonkers, sometimes! 

I think the subconscious mind works things out, in the background, even though we may not be aware of it?

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3 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Mike no offence mate as I enjoy reading ones posts but...you just basically said June will be either hot with thundery interludes, or less warm with mix of settled or unsettled. (Basically described every possible outcome for a typical June month - you are going to be spot on with regards to that month - whatever the outcome! 😉)

In the meantime a glorious few days ahead (Monday onwards) for the West of Scotland and the usual hotspots. (Kinloss for example)

6E81C0BC-D75A-4DB4-B464-0301EC2D3065.thumb.png.ffa325e5ecbd797624c1323e6d631f12.png

0A79DBE1-4744-401B-984D-BCC1DA26E9E0.thumb.png.5aa8529f71d76d5da540e9adfc2e8573.png

8274C70E-65CB-4E17-8990-C7E90ECA17B4.thumb.png.d7c5ca680d51de75aa814eadf31fbcf5.png

We usually get our best weather at this time of year although I will be hoping for a June like last year. (30 degrees in Glasgow for example) 

Roll on some warm and sunny weather - hopefully a taster of things to come in Summer! 

Bring me sunshine...☀️

 

Yep, good call!  That was a bit inconsistent, what I didn't say was a possibility of wall to wall unsettled weather in June which I think there is no signal whatsoever for.  To clarify, the model runs I was quoting suggest settled rather than unsettled in the main, but with variability of the position of high pressure, the prevailing temperature during June looks quite uncertain, and that will in turn impact on the potential for thundery outbreaks during the less settled spells.  

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I think the subconscious mind works things out, in the background, even though we may not be aware of it?

Sounds like something from the twilight zone Ed😁

Anyway, blocking high incoming, let's enjoy what fine and warm weather we get from it!!👍🌞 

Edited by Frosty.

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2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening All!  Fine weather to come after this weekend  for a time ,then models show we are back to square one this time next week 

h850t850eu-10.png

Good to see you are a convert to the model watching cause now, anyway!  I always thought it beats haruspicy for predicting the weather! 😎

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Not sure why we are hypothesising about Summer and saying it could be miserable based off some northern blocking from early May.

I suspect it's descending into trolling now. How can anyone know that summer will be miserable when we can't be sure of what is happening after T120? People in this forum should know better. What you want to see may not be what will occur, I think last winter taught a lot people that.

May 2013 was miserable and look at how that summer turned out. Northern blocking can also lead to heat with the Atlantic air cut off.... and northern blocking isn't even that unusual during May. Easterlies can be just as common as westerlies.

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