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3 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Yes indeed. Its looking increasingly likely that next weeks drier spell will be shortlived. Met Eireann are saying it will be 'brief'. I'm expecting a major downgrade from Exeter in the next day or two. As expected. 

This sounds very familiar, all of last winter springs to mind!!!! The upgrades and downgrades that never got upgraded or downgraded!!!! I can't believe some of the negative spin some folks put on things! We can't even get to enjoy a few days of fine weather before some talk about the end of it and how bad things will become afterwards..... 🙄

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Just checked the mods, next week, or most of it still looks great, don't understand all the negativity although actually I do, some just like to be negative just to get a reaction!!

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

Someone bought a beer, from a bottom-up bar, and promptly fiddled with the valve?🍺

Frankly I don't care what the models are showing today..cos spurs are in the champions league final!😜

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54 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I'm quite surprised to see a call being made for the entirety of summer based on some poorer overnight runs! It's not really professional is it! There is no heatwave in store just yet, but surely doesn't spell the end of summer before it's started. To me next week looks disappointing in NE/E areas due to a chilling wind from the NE, areas of cloud pegging temps back to low teens even. But for central and western areas I would imagine it would be quite respectable! Lengthy sunny spells at this time of year would push temps towards 20c no problems! But a word of caution, I wouldn't think for a minute that the current set up in May is any major indicator of the summer to come! Come June we could be in a completely different weather type.... Who knows.... 👍

Very often May is a 'teaser' for the summer months weather. May 2012, 2015, 2018 were all teasers..  I really can't see 20C being achieved this month under current GFS output and this prolonged N wind. Really disappointing for this time of year. Could be a record breaker if May doesn't hit 20 this year, and if this month is a 'teaser' then a cool summer should be considered.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Very often May is a 'teaser' for the summer months weather. May 2012, 2015, 2018 were all teasers..  I really can't see 20C being achieved this month under current GFS output and this prolonged N wind. Really disappointing for this time of year. Could be a record breaker if May doesn't hit 20 this year, and if this month is a 'teaser' then a cool summer should be considered.

Yes it should be considered but it also should be taken at face value. There is an old weather lore saying in the U.k about no 2 days being the same, and that certainly rings true of every 2 months! Because last summer started in May and continued til end of July, does not mean this should be the same this year. Our summer may indeed start on the 21st June, when some folk belive it should start! Either way there is plenty of opportunities to get very warm settled conditions in, regardless of the current set up. Yes GFS not painting the best of pictures currently.... But let's face it, it may be painting a van goff come the end of the weekend! 

Edited by Mattwolves

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18 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Very often May is a 'teaser' for the summer months weather. May 2012, 2015, 2018 were all teasers..  I really can't see 20C being achieved this month under current GFS output and this prolonged N wind. Really disappointing for this time of year. Could be a record breaker if May doesn't hit 20 this year, and if this month is a 'teaser' then a cool summer should be considered.

Except when it isn't  'a teaser'? May 1975, May 1983, May 1995 and May 1996, were all garbage; the summers that followed, however, were okay to great...?:oldgrin:

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Except when it isn't  'a teaser'? May 1975, May 1983, May 1995 and May 1996, were all garbage; the summers that followed, however, were okay to great...?:oldgrin:

Agreed, whatever happens in May has no bearing on the summer..anyway, just checked the Ecm 00z and it looks peachy for most of the run!👍

Edited by Frosty.

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Surprise, surprise: the FV3 has us in a no-man's-land. Again!:shok:

image.thumb.png.80f7c12a6cee30f42548667c0c6de04a.pngimage.thumb.png.fa829015f52c43ffe6e1a86472e34ea8.png 

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14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Surprise, surprise: the FV3 has us in a no-man's-land. Again!:shok:

image.thumb.png.80f7c12a6cee30f42548667c0c6de04a.pngimage.thumb.png.fa829015f52c43ffe6e1a86472e34ea8.png 

Its better than having us in Jon o groats I suppose... 😉 Perhaps to many GFS runs are giving us fatigue! 8 a day! I expect the evening runs to upgrade, and probably downgrade again by morning. Either way I still have plenty of hope for summer 2019,this one may start a bit latter... 👍

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Surprise, surprise: the FV3 has us in a no-man's-land. Again!:shok:

image.thumb.png.80f7c12a6cee30f42548667c0c6de04a.pngimage.thumb.png.fa829015f52c43ffe6e1a86472e34ea8.png 

To me, the FV3 is a crap model  unless it's showing warm / hot anticyclonic weather in late spring!👍

Edited by Frosty.

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52 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Except when it isn't  'a teaser'? May 1975, May 1983, May 1995 and May 1996, were all garbage; the summers that followed, however, were okay to great...?:oldgrin:

Indeed - 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2013 certainly didn’t bring any teasers of the summers to come either lol.

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23 minutes ago, Team Jo said:

Last time I looked at a calendar, there were 22 days left in this month...

Then you clearly haven't been paying attention!🤣

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All this doom and gloom talk of downgrades and yet the Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks just as good as yesterday as far as the first half of next week is concerned!..enjoy whatever summery weather we get this month, it's a bonus after all!👍

EDM1-72.GIF

EDM1-96.gif

EDM1-120.GIF

EDM1-144.GIF

EDM0-168.GIF

EDM1-192.GIF

EDM0-192.GIF

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I can't see much wrong with the GEFS 6z mean between sunday and next midweek, even beyond that a lack of atlantic dross is nice to see!!👍

GFSAVGEU06_84_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_108_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_132_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_156_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_180_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_348_2.png

GFSAVGEU06_372_2.png

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The only thing that has been downgraded are the temperatures for next week, the weather is still going to be very settled. The earlier notably warm runs caught the hot air to the South perfectly to bring in the warm uppers. The high has shifted a little bit to the North and West leaving more average temperatures for next week.

I've seen a lot worse and as Ed says May has absolutely no bearing on the Summer to come whatsoever. I suspect temperatures in the south may be a bit lacklustre at times whilst to the North and west there could still be some high maxima.

image.thumb.png.f6385ce122c2462fbcc64ce741741dd8.png

The cooler air across Europe hasn't really shifted so we don't see the warm uppers but the the continent can warm rapidly at this time of the year making it easier to eventually catch the warm uppers. The other issue is that the ECM is still pretty warm and who is to say that is wrong?

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An interesting read Tamara, thanks!

It does seem like to me that next week, in general, still looks mostly dry according to the models with a good deal of High Pressure around. True not really warm, but could still be (quite) pleasant in sunny spells. Particularly as you and others mention, the further North-West you are. And more so where winds are slack. It is possible that High Pressure could certainly get sucked up further North and/or North-West allowing a more broader, cooler, cyclonic flow between the North-East or North, (reinforcing a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern), especially for Southern and Eastern areas. Though it seems the GFS is the most aggressive with this. I think it can probably be a bit easy to have very high expectations in May and Summer and expect those months to constantly be very warm or hot with bright sunshine all the time. Which I think is kinda unrealistic really. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Team Jo said:

Last time I looked at a calendar, there were 22 days left in this month. I think anyone writing off the next three weeks on the basis that we have had a poor start to this month and then deducing the entire summer is a write off, probably needs to take a step back and consider their expectations.

2018 was extreme if you look at historical years with both the heat and the cold. We are not duplicating that this year so far for sure, but by the same token this also doesn't mean that we can confidently say that the next three months are going to be a copy of the last three days.

 

 

 

Fantastic post here by team Jo, and its almost canny, as I was thinking earlier before this post, that how I wished a member of the team would come on and make this kind of statement!! Nothing else to say on the subject has the above post really hits the nail on the head and then drives it in with a sledge hammer... Superb.. 👍

And just to add another excellent post and summary from Tamara. Puts things very much into perspective, and also serves as a  valuable learning tool for those, me included who no little about all the background signals 👍

Edited by Mattwolves

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The general area of lo pressure will continue to move slowly north east through this evening and tonight taking the bits and bobs of fronts and troughs with it. But the trailing occlusion will still lie across N Ireland < N Wales > the Midlands and East Anglia

PPVA89.thumb.gif.da9ec06b7303ebf1da9517884f691f2a.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.c114aec0ebd4c773645dde8a62dabc15.gif

Thus, although much of the rain and heavy showers currency effecting a large swathe of the country

14.thumb.gif.7dac12a4da6960cc3a5e2825ba67d247.gif

will ease or dissipate later , cloud and rain/showery activity will remain in the vicinity of the front,  This will be especially applicable to to N/ Ireland and parts of western Scotland. Because of the variability of cloud amounts frost and fog will not be widespread.and rather patchy

min.thumb.png.886c2317ae1773b03857ae5879916c24.pngp18.thumb.png.4e60a5a6183821d438c2a69579575dcf.pngp21.thumb.png.66d1d59bcb14700c2bfde7b6725376c5.pngp00.thumb.png.de5f4836c828536192e489bea32d27ab.pngp03.thumb.png.094b04b080c1404d600f8d7ef8a2f01b.pngp08.thumb.png.8de3c5af54aeb53ba08845645cf99a7d.png

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Tamara said:

. Signals after all lead models, models do not lead signals

T

 

As my old friend Sammy Rachevsky use to say, "The self-evident is obscure to most people". But not in a weather forum I would hope. as the whole raison d'etre of models is to pick up changes in the atmosphere.

Edited by knocker

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Posted (edited)

Looking at the CFS there's some potentially very warm / hot anticyclonic weather in July with plumes too, notice why I skipped to july?..June looks meh!👍😜

Edited by Frosty.

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This really grabbed my attention!!!👍😜

cfs-0-5784.png

cfs-2-5796.png

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Well, this would be alright; summer 2019 mightn't be over, after all?:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.11793f777964cf502c5e6e9602e868a3.pngimage.thumb.png.18942c074b52b2d9e569c2d20a24d4ae.png 

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If this is 'cool and showery', I'll take it: the lack of searing heat would be more than compensated-for by plenty of convection...?

image.thumb.png.a28303f8a4ce0f0d9129725472626cea.pngimage.thumb.png.079127adf90e971cfe97424e0233c653.png  👍

 

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