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Just now, SizzlingHeat said:

It will be nice to see the sun again, however it's concerning to show northern blocking trying to re-establish itself again later on. Would much prefer it if low pressure would replace the HLB as that could become very dodgy later on towards the end of May.

But 15-20c nationwide for 3 or 4 days would be pleasant enough for the time being.

I'm not concerned by N blocking reasserting at all. 1) I like cool summers and 2) it would potentially signify a base flip from the past few years which have been seemingly dominated by +NAO- may bode well for the upcoming winter.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm not concerned by N blocking reasserting at all. 1) I like cool summers and 2) it would potentially signify a base flip from the past few years which have been seemingly dominated by +NAO- may bode well for the upcoming winter.

Oh no, please crew, let's not get our hopes up for this coming winter yet... Even though there may be some promising background signals emerging.... 😉

Edited by Mattwolves

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Evening! Mid latitude blocking Followed by Northern Blocking once again!...Really don't see any change in the days ahead. No Heat wave from the models as predicted from last night which I said would Not happen....To many Computer phonies on here , Oh yes rain for all , Thunderstorms etc, The Echoes of 2012 look very realistic! Bring on Tomorows  models...🤣

MALVERNS.png

MALVERNSX.png

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7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm not concerned by N blocking reasserting at all. 1) I like cool summers and 2) it would potentially signify a base flip from the past few years which have been seemingly dominated by +NAO- may bode well for the upcoming winter.

In fairness crew even though I overly hype hot weather, I'm much more at ease with temps in low 20s, 30+ degrees is fine if you have air conditioning, but let's face it, not many of us have in the uk, so as long has we see plenty of settled Conditions I'm relatively happy. 

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3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening! Mid latitude blocking Followed by Northern Blocking once again!...Really don't see any change in the days ahead. No Heat wave from the models as predicted from last night which I said would Not happen....To many Computer phonies on here , Oh yes rain for all , Thunderstorms etc, The Echoes of 2012 look very realistic! Bring on Tomorows  models...🤣

MALVERNS.png

MALVERNSX.png

Love him or hate him, you have got to like his style. Fantastic stuff anyweather, your Truelly a bonus to this forum, I actually now look forward to your evening posts 👍😉

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Posted (edited)

But there's a big difference (including current model-predictions) between April-May 2012 and what we've had, this year: if I remember rightly both April and May 2012 were cold, wet and windy...?:oldgood:

Edited by Ed Stone
That's better!

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But there's a big difference (including current model-predictions) between April-May 2019 and what we've had, this year: if I remember rightly both April and May 2019 were cold, wet and windy...?:oldgood:

I hope not Pete, May as only just started... 😉

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h850t850eu.png ecmt850.144.png

You know what, I think GFS has a shortfall when it comes to day-on-day heat build while days are longer than nights. For the same sequence of events ECM has higher 850s and I've noticed this a lot in recent years.

Anyway - the battle between HLB tendencies and the Nino base state trying to take over goes on. Given the magnitude of the current WWB right by the dateline, I'm sceptical of any modelling that focuses high pressure at a longitude west of the UK. I believe the issue is going to be how much of a northerly component there is to the flow from the east; there seems to be a lot of resilience to the troughs SE of the UK these days. If only that would relax, then we'd see the cool air sent tumbling down across SE Europe instead of being drawn across the UK.

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

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The NH 500mb profile and the North Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UTC UK chart

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7273600.thumb.png.fe19a2b433fb86207bf187e5bbf206e0.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.9e05512fdb1cc6e99403722a0e0c4882.gif03.thumb.gif.bfcdde3ccd75b36f7d8586da34042b75.gif

The large area of low pressure will dominate proceedings today and overnight as it moves slowly north east. The band(s) of rain associated with the fronts will do likewise and the heaviest, associated with the last occlusion, is currently over south Wales/ > Dorset and by 1800 will be straddled across the north east into the North Sea. Frequent heavy showers, with hail and thunder in the mix, will develop in the clearance behind this whilst northern Scotland will avoid the mayhem. A day of very contrasting temps as can be seen

PPVE89.thumb.gif.80ecfffb78a48ab5439f7be76985346f.gif1695581515_maxwed.thumb.png.2d997c8760fac94927258be6906ebea8.pnglapse.thumb.png.3c6066b3840c12151651a530313351f6.png

p10.thumb.png.238c28b1ce16a0e4c55106414d146311.pngp14.thumb.png.99ddbbf5e7182e1b780c8590c95c81f4.pngp18.thumb.png.9e8de40dfabfa5f1225feadbc50f4bf9.png

 By midnight the fronts are still trailing back over the north east so the rain will linger here and for a while the heavy showers will persist in the south associated with the trough but should slowly dissipate through the night. Quite a widespread frost in scotland by morning.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.95b1debe45078d686b30e380edd89bcc.gif904812683_minth.thumb.png.a0e00a0c37887f99b8468cb681260685.pngp01.thumb.png.9808849785894983df380d9bdd048341.png

By tomorrow the main center will be over Denmark but the fronts are still trailing back so still some rain in eastern areas and frequent showers will develop in the south west quadrant of the circulation mainly effecting Wales and central southern England. These could coalesce into longer periods of rain on any troughs embedded in the circulation. Generally another chilly day but warmer in the far south.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.fad5d9fe9238f69afd037921040ca383.gif1022330441_maxth.thumb.png.2defae81b52336f2a15fa6aca30f370a.pngr15.thumb.png.3830a87b18cdd7f12ddeee4bc2169099.png

Over Thursday night and through Friday the main trough realigns over Scandinavia with the UK in a very slack gradient with a couple of troughs within this so basically another chilly day with temps a tad below normal and quite a few showers around.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7489600.thumb.png.d4b0ae8b82ffb3f39a4c6ffb998d0661.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.e731022581edb818e4ece0e573033776.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.b36e2e08cb8231c5437eff177e5264eb.gif

gfs-eur-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-7500400.thumb.png.f46641b462aac27420016f24b22c73c0.png1697570130_maxfr.thumb.png.297fc30f6d3ecddd3d6f02ac0aa79916.png

By Saturday changes are afoot that have previously been discussed and the subtropical high is ridging just to the west of the UK. So dry and sunny in western areas but still quite wet in northern and eastern areas courtesy of a trough that has drifted in from the north Sea.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7586800.thumb.png.5e49b806cfbc588c4f2c8d6f9ad31d66.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.ff4618c3f07c2c83b579b55a5e7d94e9.gif

gfs-eur-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-7597600.thumb.png.258a527e4dcc16aa2aa3e6738decb13a.png939647433_maxsat.thumb.png.83dae2e76fee970f9a4a62e584ab3881.png

By Sunday things have developed quite nicely with the surface high cell over the UK so after a frosty start in some places a mainly sunny day with temps creeping up to around normal.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7673200.thumb.png.6b82059c6aa4ddaab7043250d35e16f1.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.21e6e51c265ffb5801b32f931fce37e8.gif664805574_maxsun.thumb.png.33b2e50f1e75d9c7e4430270f91a9227.png

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Posted (edited)

Through Monday > Weds the high pressure remains in situ over the UK but changes are slowly occurring as the ridge tries to migrate NW into Greenland and more roughs develop in mid Atlantic so by 1800 Weds we have this position

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7943200.thumb.png.6cdc7accfb6f8859d05fe2e93d060fe1.png

And by Friday we are here . Nothing drastic but perhaps some shower rain creeping in from the west? Anyway that's a long way off.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8094400.thumb.png.048f9ac776a54caeb0fac233e57c04b7.pnggfs-eur-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-8094400.thumb.png.09508738e33e00991e12551bccf1f6ba.png

So quick summation for next week courtesy of the gfs.

Dry, mainly sunny and temps a tad above average, particularly in the north

gfs-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-8116000.thumb.png.9826685075b156c9902e2993675e68ca.png

Edited by knocker

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I'm not in anyway suggesting this is going to verify but it's an excellent illustration of the importance of the precise orientation of the high cell as the energy flows force it to the NW

t204.thumb.png.d13709268333b4bf163c671fc4b5b789.pngindex.thumb.png.2d6f4412bee2c8b4560c2d2c2e5ec9eb.png

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This morning's 00Z is a bit of a Nice One Cyril: once the cold uppers have been displaced, they don't come back?:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.7622d07180a3cbb1e7ad2c4333e4b728.png image.thumb.png.a54f4b28d5bdb622f330371893970178.png 

And even the FV3 isn't that scary:

image.thumb.png.f6838f7e72817434852b7af72f29bbef.pngimage.thumb.png.067d0c7ac9c54b1f257e756618566595.png 

The average temp ensemble is not bad if nowt special; rainfall starts off okay, but suffers an infarction on May 11th.

image.thumb.png.6cb3db6adb9c285052ac3a0d28d43abb.png image.thumb.png.21826454dbfb5fb14fb768d9497b7966.png

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Horrible morning here but by early next week most models surface or anomaly charts at 500 mb are looking more promising. Upper and surface ridging will become dominant rather than troughing. Crucial just where this takes place but  more sun for most and a rise in temperatures for most as well.

The anomaly charts have been less than consistent over the past couple of weeks, something that happens as the northern hemisphere goes into its change from winter to summer mode in most years.. However they, all 3, now show ridging as being the main feature and with contour heights atlast climbing then the resultant surface temperatures will also do this. Not dramatic but around or a bit above normal, at least for a few days from early next week.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

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Posted (edited)

Chance of a Kent clipper / Thames streamer?..oops wrong season..my bad!😁:oops:

216_thickuk.png

216_mslp850.png

giphy (2).gif

Edited by Frosty.

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12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Chance of a Kent clipper / Thames streamer?..oops wrong season..my bad!😁:oops:

216_thickuk.png

216_mslp850.png

giphy (2).gif

Those two don't bother me much, Karl...It's the threat of either a Pembrokeshire dangler or, even worse, Arkansas Knob that's more worrying!:shok:

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Posted (edited)

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks anticyclonic and increasingly warmer for much of next week.🌞

EDM1-120.GIF

EDM1-144.GIF

EDM1-168.GIF

EDM1-192.GIF

EDM0-192.GIF

EDM1-216.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.

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Nice one Frosty! Here's hoping for a scorching late Spring.

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13 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening! Mid latitude blocking Followed by Northern Blocking once again!...Really don't see any change in the days ahead. No Heat wave from the models as predicted from last night which I said would Not happen....To many Computer phonies on here , Oh yes rain for all , Thunderstorms etc, The Echoes of 2012 look very realistic! Bring on Tomorows  models...🤣

MALVERNS.png

MALVERNSX.png

Ah another misleading post from ANYWEATHER.... high pressure looks like taking over from the weekend with a warm up looking very likely. Here is next Wednesday on the GFS and ECM for example. 

image.thumb.png.b204fb02dd5440459239210af0805c52.pngimage.thumb.png.cd354df0b6bfa22d4e84f20fc0928916.png

Uppers well above average, no sign of thunderstorms... high pressure in control. Where is the rain here? Guess the computer phonies have got it right again. Further into the middle time range and high pressure is still in control!

image.thumb.png.4fd95b91dbafa89ba9198fb628f85f7f.pngimage.thumb.png.7d75720c7e129e870c3ed5353db5e303.png

Some cooler air on the ECM but no thunderstorms. Still warm on the GFS! Not a heatwave but that was just one rogue GFS run. I see no thunderstorms next week nor do I see northern blocking establishing itself again. So what you are saying is fake news.

What do you suggest we use to forecast the weather? Seaweed? Next thing you will be telling us to ignore all the geologists because the Earth is flat... Lets face it the models know better then what any of us do simply because they process all the observations available to us to give a forecast. Ignoring the models because you think you know better is just crazy talk.

Any warm up looks a bit sluggish but the weather looks very settled, especially further North and West!

image.thumb.png.1a2ff718b37aff7b4f3c8a7386360bd4.png

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Out to T+96 and the GFS has the change to more settled conditions continuing as expected:

image.thumb.png.feeef505db15b63272e6a6b88484f2ae.pngimage.thumb.png.12a6004a42fb005924fb386339dee5ea.png 

Just like 2012!🤣

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Thanks for that encouraging post QS, Has one of the posters I always follow with interest, it's good to see you make the call of you not seeing HLB setting up again. It's been mentioned quite a few time on here recently, so it's good to see you making that call. Hopefully things will be settling down and warming up without to many dramas! Like I said last night low 20s will do me just fine. 👍

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Hardly brief, at least 10 days going on the 6z! Things looking very peachy, maybe not an heatwave or something to get overly excited by... But I've just been watching with some serious interest... 

gfs-0-120.png

gfs-0-144.png

gfs-0-168 (2).png

gfs-0-192 (3).png

gfs-1-168.png

VastOccasionalGadwall-size_restricted.gif

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All is still okay, come the end of the 06Z.👍

image.thumb.png.e862485875a8f8f23518da9ab8fc59ae.pngimage.thumb.png.0f5040cb1e715dbd728287450c907a5f.pngimage.png.ac1250357d69e27f0984312bfc8c2b72.png 

 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Yes, certainly looking that way according to the experts. 

Eh, where do you get that from? Anyone who claims there know exactly what the output will be after the end of next week in this little part of the world clearly isn't aware of the long range uncertainties of the model output.

7 days of settled weather at least looks like a good estimate at the moment and that isn't a "brief dryer spell"

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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