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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, SizzlingHeat said:

It will be nice to see the sun again, however it's concerning to show northern blocking trying to re-establish itself again later on. Would much prefer it if low pressure would replace the HLB as that could become very dodgy later on towards the end of May.

But 15-20c nationwide for 3 or 4 days would be pleasant enough for the time being.

I'm not concerned by N blocking reasserting at all. 1) I like cool summers and 2) it would potentially signify a base flip from the past few years which have been seemingly dominated by +NAO- may bode well for the upcoming winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm not concerned by N blocking reasserting at all. 1) I like cool summers and 2) it would potentially signify a base flip from the past few years which have been seemingly dominated by +NAO- may bode well for the upcoming winter.

Oh no, please crew, let's not get our hopes up for this coming winter yet... Even though there may be some promising background signals emerging....

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening! Mid latitude blocking Followed by Northern Blocking once again!...Really don't see any change in the days ahead. No Heat wave from the models as predicted from last night which I said would Not happen....To many Computer phonies on here , Oh yes rain for all , Thunderstorms etc, The Echoes of 2012 look very realistic! Bring on Tomorows  models...

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm not concerned by N blocking reasserting at all. 1) I like cool summers and 2) it would potentially signify a base flip from the past few years which have been seemingly dominated by +NAO- may bode well for the upcoming winter.

In fairness crew even though I overly hype hot weather, I'm much more at ease with temps in low 20s, 30+ degrees is fine if you have air conditioning, but let's face it, not many of us have in the uk, so as long has we see plenty of settled Conditions I'm relatively happy. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening! Mid latitude blocking Followed by Northern Blocking once again!...Really don't see any change in the days ahead. No Heat wave from the models as predicted from last night which I said would Not happen....To many Computer phonies on here , Oh yes rain for all , Thunderstorms etc, The Echoes of 2012 look very realistic! Bring on Tomorows  models...

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Love him or hate him, you have got to like his style. Fantastic stuff anyweather, your Truelly a bonus to this forum, I actually now look forward to your evening posts

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

But there's a big difference (including current model-predictions) between April-May 2012 and what we've had, this year: if I remember rightly both April and May 2012 were cold, wet and windy...?:oldgood:

Edited by Ed Stone
That's better!
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But there's a big difference (including current model-predictions) between April-May 2019 and what we've had, this year: if I remember rightly both April and May 2019 were cold, wet and windy...?:oldgood:

I hope not Pete, May as only just started...

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

h850t850eu.png ecmt850.144.png

You know what, I think GFS has a shortfall when it comes to day-on-day heat build while days are longer than nights. For the same sequence of events ECM has higher 850s and I've noticed this a lot in recent years.

Anyway - the battle between HLB tendencies and the Nino base state trying to take over goes on. Given the magnitude of the current WWB right by the dateline, I'm sceptical of any modelling that focuses high pressure at a longitude west of the UK. I believe the issue is going to be how much of a northerly component there is to the flow from the east; there seems to be a lot of resilience to the troughs SE of the UK these days. If only that would relax, then we'd see the cool air sent tumbling down across SE Europe instead of being drawn across the UK.

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

So far so good from the 18s...

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Through Monday > Weds the high pressure remains in situ over the UK but changes are slowly occurring as the ridge tries to migrate NW into Greenland and more roughs develop in mid Atlantic so by 1800 Weds we have this position

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7943200.thumb.png.6cdc7accfb6f8859d05fe2e93d060fe1.png

And by Friday we are here . Nothing drastic but perhaps some shower rain creeping in from the west? Anyway that's a long way off.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8094400.thumb.png.048f9ac776a54caeb0fac233e57c04b7.pnggfs-eur-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-8094400.thumb.png.09508738e33e00991e12551bccf1f6ba.png

So quick summation for next week courtesy of the gfs.

Dry, mainly sunny and temps a tad above average, particularly in the north

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I'm not in anyway suggesting this is going to verify but it's an excellent illustration of the importance of the precise orientation of the high cell as the energy flows force it to the NW

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

This morning's 00Z is a bit of a Nice One Cyril: once the cold uppers have been displaced, they don't come back?:oldgood:

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And even the FV3 isn't that scary:

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The average temp ensemble is not bad if nowt special; rainfall starts off okay, but suffers an infarction on May 11th.

image.thumb.png.6cb3db6adb9c285052ac3a0d28d43abb.png image.thumb.png.21826454dbfb5fb14fb768d9497b7966.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Chance of a Kent clipper / Thames streamer?..oops wrong season..my bad!:oops:

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Chance of a Kent clipper / Thames streamer?..oops wrong season..my bad!:oops:

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Those two don't bother me much, Karl...It's the threat of either a Pembrokeshire dangler or, even worse, Arkansas Knob that's more worrying!:shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks anticyclonic and increasingly warmer for much of next week.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Out to T+96 and the GFS has the change to more settled conditions continuing as expected:

image.thumb.png.feeef505db15b63272e6a6b88484f2ae.pngimage.thumb.png.12a6004a42fb005924fb386339dee5ea.png 

Just like 2012!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Thanks for that encouraging post QS, Has one of the posters I always follow with interest, it's good to see you make the call of you not seeing HLB setting up again. It's been mentioned quite a few time on here recently, so it's good to see you making that call. Hopefully things will be settling down and warming up without to many dramas! Like I said last night low 20s will do me just fine.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Hardly brief, at least 10 days going on the 6z! Things looking very peachy, maybe not an heatwave or something to get overly excited by... But I've just been watching with some serious interest... 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

All is still okay, come the end of the 06Z.

image.thumb.png.e862485875a8f8f23518da9ab8fc59ae.pngimage.thumb.png.0f5040cb1e715dbd728287450c907a5f.pngimage.png.ac1250357d69e27f0984312bfc8c2b72.png 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
7 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Yes, certainly looking that way according to the experts. 

Eh, where do you get that from? Anyone who claims there know exactly what the output will be after the end of next week in this little part of the world clearly isn't aware of the long range uncertainties of the model output.

7 days of settled weather at least looks like a good estimate at the moment and that isn't a "brief dryer spell"

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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