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18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

 I spock too soon!!..this is the  reason I don't usually comment on a run until it's completed!!!😜

 

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Can you remind me - with the 850 charts in summer do you just add on 10oC?

Only I remember seeing something where you add on anything between 10oC and 13oC depending on which month it was between May and September?

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Sadly (from a forecasting perspective) it's not that simple @CanadianCoops; at this time of year for example, I've seen temps climb into the 20s with 850s only a few above zero when there's light winds and lots of sunshine, but if it's windy it tends to struggle to get past the mid-teens, and if it's cloudy it can be stuck in the low teens tops even if winds are light.


Back to the model output and - as usual for the longer range - it looks like we've yet to see any resolution on whether or not the very amplified ridge will make another run for the high latitudes in 9 or 10 days time.

Encouragingly for those seeking predominantly warm temperatures in the 2nd half of May (as opposed to a run of only a few days early-mid next week), most of the ensembles that do this have it a fleeting affair, with a return to the mid-latitudes within a few days after, and mostly over or a bit east or northeast of the UK.

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Posted (edited)

Pretty good Ecm 00z ensemble mean, pretty, pretty, pretty good!!👍😜

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Edited by Frosty.

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Things looking quite peachy for next week so far, how warm could we go next week is the big question! Could be time to get the old sun lounger and shades ready, for how long, who knows... But make the most of it when it arrives I say! 

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Posted (edited)

The 6z FV3 is looking pretty good, pretty, pretty, pretty good if you like high pressure and warm temperatures!😉 

GFSPARAEU06_132_1.png

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Edited by Frosty.

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Massive downgrade in the gfs next week on the 6z regarding temperature.  Mid to High Teens not Mid to High twenties like yesterday.... ⛅

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Posted (edited)

It's an amazing forum ain't it folks.. We have Karl above stating, high pressure and warm temps, and above we have a massive downgrade post! High teens... Perhaps low 20s...not a massive downgrade is it! Really depends on the orientation of the high pressure, I don't think in that respects it's a done deal yet.. 

Edited by Mattwolves

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2 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Massive downgrade in the gfs next week on the 6z regarding temperature.  Mid to High Teens not Mid to High twenties like yesterday.... ⛅

 

 

 

Who cares, there's plenty of time for heatwaves in the next 5 months!!..it's looking a lot better next week whether it's a heatwave or just pleasant!🌞

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Pretty hefty downgrade on the meto extended updated just now.

Suggestive of high lat blocking and wet across the south especially.

 

 

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Meto extended sounds awful 😞

That depends how you look at it NWS. it states very low confidence, yes it states periods of unsettled conditions, but it also states very warm spells in the settled conditions. And not to forget at this range, perhaps we should take it with a huge dose of salt, especially after the failed winter attempts!! 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Meto extended sounds awful 😞

Hmmm they've never been wrong before have they..cough..cough😁

I think it would be better just to take it step by step, the improvement starts at the weekend or more precisely sunday and next week looks a big improvement compared to the next few days.

Edited by Frosty.

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2 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I think I enjoy front-loaded summers because May-June is when maximum daylight is achieved, first half of July too. By the end of July I've already got half an eye on Autumn.

 

Also, Autumn started in Mid July last year and it's been 10 months now so i'm exhausted from the grotty weather.

We have already had 2 periods of very warm settled conditions this year though! Next week will be the 3rd,and its only early May. On top of the fact we had no winter, bar a 2day snowfall in places! I still feel to many folk are still in cloud cuckoo land because of last years remarkable summer! And the fact it started early. This summer may start early, it may start late, hell, it may not start at all!! But come on, let's at least give it a chance!! And judging by the amount of mays I've put in this post.... It may start in May! 👍😉

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Hmmm they've never been wrong before have they..cough..cough😁

I think it would be better just take it step by step, the improvement starts at the weekend or more precisely sunday and next week looks a big improvement compared to the next few days.

Yes agree with all that Karl 🙂🙂

Next week looks nice but just like winter i want more, im far too greedy most likely..

 

Edited by northwestsnow

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6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

That depends how you look at it NWS. it states very low confidence, yes it states periods of unsettled conditions, but it also states very warm spells in the settled conditions. And not to forget at this range, perhaps we should take it with a huge dose of salt, especially after the failed winter attempts!! 

I was just comparing it to yesterdays and its defo a step back from that update.

00EC looked primed to drop a big green hole over us with blocking highs to our north at day 10 ..

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

I am so looking forward to 5 months of sleepless nights and lack of sleep due to hours and hours of late nights reading and analysing model discussion threads only for zilch to happen

That's a bit negative putting it mildly, if we take next week with a blend of the models so far today, I think high pressure bringing fine conditions with sunny spells & high teens to low twenties celsius is very good for late spring..even by next week the start of the meteorological summer is still two weeks away!!

Edited by Frosty.

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10 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Well if your not sleeping due to analizing models all night you may need some treatment, I prescribe a week of just reading Karl, Frostys posts, that should at least elevate your mood.... Cause let's face it, they are always super enthusiastic... 😉

Thanks, these powerful meds i 'm taking for all my conditions sure help, don't know what my model analysis would look like if I didn't take it..a right miserable negative git probably!😜

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53 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

We have already had 2 periods of very warm settled conditions this year though! Next week will be the 3rd,and its only early May. On top of the fact we had no winter, bar a 2day snowfall in places! I still feel to many folk are still in cloud cuckoo land because of last years remarkable summer! And the fact it started early. This summer may start early, it may start late, hell, it may not start at all!! But come on, let's at least give it a chance!! And judging by the amount of mays I've put in this post.... It may start in May! 👍😉

I wish I could share your enthusiasm, I really do and I'm glad posters like yourself and Frosty consistently contribute to the forum by posting charts and trying to find the positives whatever the weather.

The 2 spells we've had so far have been short-lived, punctuated by weeks upon weeks of dross.

I hate Winter, everyone on here knows I'm not a coldie at all (though the prospect of snow pre-Xmas does excite me somewhat) but I genuinely feel sorry for coldies who only get to enjoy very short-lived, snowy cold-snaps because our climate is predominantly garbage and some kind of endless Autumnal purgatory.

As I said on another thread, people often say our climate is varied and interesting, but I actually feel the opposite. It's dull.

Back to the models - I really hope we do get some warmth soon because I'm tired of wearing my heavy winter coat every day.

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This is the model discussion thread, not the moans or general chat about Spring or Summer thread. Please stay on topic or more posts will disappear. Thanks.

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Posted (edited)

The GEFS 6z mean looks rather spiffing from sunday and much of next week with high pressure and warm sunshine, thereafter there is some indication that pressure will fall somewhat and become more unstable with a risk of heavy showers / thunderstorms but still some pleasantly warm sunshine and then later perhaps pressure rises enough to reduce the showers risk or potentially settled / anticyclonic again like next week.

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Edited by Frosty.

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5 hours ago, knocker said:

The first thing to remember is that estimating the surface temp from the 850mb is very rough and ready and is very often likely to be miles out.

I don't know what you have read but it will be based on the lapse rate between the surface and 850mb. Air cools adiabatically as it rises, and the converse, and in the case of dry air that will be 9,8C/km and saturated around 5.0C/km. The environmental lapse rate is in between around 6.8C/Km

So it is quite easy to calculate the surface temp, given the 850mb temp, if you assume the 850mb height as 1500m and a dry lapse rate. In the height of summer you can add two or three degrees for surface heating. But that assumes (a) dry air and (b) nothing interferes with the temperature structure between the surface and 850mb such as cloud, CAA and even subsidence and you could even include orographic features for any particular location .In practice this is very unlikely So the moral is... be wary

This needs to be pinned somewhere

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Trends on the clusters: last two runs for May 17th

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019050700_240.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019050612_264.

General thoughts:

- heights being squeezed from both west and east on many members

- heights generally above average to our north and also to the south-west

- generally slightly below average heights to the east - but!!! - at this time of year, that does not necessarily mean a deep trough, could be just weaker heights (a couple of clusters do suggest a deeper trough to the east but most don't including the largest clusters)

This leaves us with a very tricky forecast, as on the face of it the UK may remain under the influence of a ridge more than a trough, but it's a close call between a warm source or a colder source - and there's the sod's law chance the UK could end eventually end up piggy-in-the-middle with fine weather all around but less settled weather stuck over our islands.

Wouldn't like to call it beyond D8 at the moment.

 

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A quick update for this evening and overnight

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As can be seen the complex area of low pressure, and associated fronts, track north east through the period.  So, and not discounting a continuation of showery activity from the old occlusion/trough duo. in the north east, bands of rain, some of them heavy, will do likewise covering all of England and Wales by tomorrow morning, with clearer weather reaching the south west. And by morning the wind will have freshened in many areas.

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Posted (edited)

Interesting to see how the jetstream profile changes between tomorrow and early next week, very unsettled tomorrow but then much more settled / anticyclonic from sun / mon!👍

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Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)

Interestingly, this is what the GFS was showing for Wednesday evening (tomorrow) on 30th April:

587012AE-29DF-4E7A-B331-5F7F08B90E19.thumb.png.5693a0f3ae53cde624d9f9230cac8374.png

And this is what the GFS today is showing for tomorrow evening (using the 06Z run as an idea):

0A59AC7A-297D-42CA-B8BE-EB881C24CC93.thumb.png.2f642d9c3f2dd13fd6fdfe25ec7441d8.png

Despite the first chart showing two Low centres, there is quite remarkable similarities to the general shape and placement of the Low Pressure system over the U.K. Both charts showing the Low looking like a banana! 🍌

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Attached charts in wrong order

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