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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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Massive heat upgrade compared to last evening's Ecm 12z which had the uk in -3 uppers at day's 9 and 10!!:shok:comparing like for like!!?

Edited by Frosty.
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Extracts posted last week on closed thread:   The other part of the equation is the seasonal transition within the stratosphere from its winter default vortex position to its summer state. T

Greetings to you all! ? A glistening new thread for the month of May and early Summer! As we head deeper into Spring and into Summer (though I guess for some, May could be classed as a Summer

There are no apologies for self quoting a significant extract of the post the other day because its central focus becomes more primary to how NWP evolves in the remainder of this month and into the st

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Imagine what it'll be like (in here) should the incoming plume verify!:shok:

Chaos!  Personally, plumey weather is my favourite.  That hot, humid air takes me back to holidays to the Caribbean when I was younger.

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38 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Imagine what it'll be like (in here) should the incoming plume verify!:shok:

I expect it would be dead Pete, people out in the sunshine, posting in the regionals, maybe, in the storms thread if it goes that way.   But model thread, quiet I think.  This is the peak for this thread - the anticipation - which reminds me of something I once said in another context, but has relevance here, 'the anticipation is so much better than the not getting it'! ?

Edited by Mike Poole
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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

I expect it would be dead Pete, people out in the sunshine, posting in the regionals, maybe, in the storms thread if it goes that way.   But model thread, quiet I think.  This is the peak for this thread - the anticipation - which I once said in another context, 'the anticipation is so much better than the not getting it'!

It's like I always say, get the cold in first and the heatwave will follow!!!!.. Ecm must have read my comments last night because now it's found the heatwave it misplaced yesterday!!!!!!???

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ECM mean rock solid on the high, and moreover the location of the high, at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.973e2430498583b8e23d49540b6c9855.jpg

And at T240:

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I like this. Azores extension to UK, as a mean chart suggests to me a reloading anticyclonic pattern.  We will see.  

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Evening ! Still sticking by my guns with echos of 2012 summer. The ops models showing some warmth later in the 10 day range but that is only one run, Even summer 2012 had warm dry spells..tomorows ops will be quite different.....:gathering:

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Looking forward to summer itself, here's a look at June courtesy of CFS - as always CFS has to viewed probabilistically across a number of runs, rather than cherry picking one run. Last 7 runs:

image.thumb.jpg.ae0ba6da19d72294aa1e0a19591a69df.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.b92f7ab56e44f5c056c2cac66331171b.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.f467326ef7f1187afa5c19e8db1e12c6.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.112b5672cb1d9d7c80f14d290df6966e.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.85ab6b4b3bb402d51f10830ea07e2737.jpg

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Similar to last time I posted these, higher than average pressure looks very likely, but where it sits is quite uncertain, so while I'm confident on a warm or hot summer, I think the big question mark is over the extent to which thundery breakdowns will feature as part of the overall summer picture.  I think more so than last year, but that is not saying much.

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Edited by Mike Poole
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Great hour or three of model discussion, I will be back tomorrow for the 12z, but I've really enjoyed reading everyone's thoughts as spring turns to summer, the most vibrant discussion on this thread since winter, models trickle on though here's the ICON 18z at T120:

image.thumb.jpg.abae688c0a90a48a163ecb8261cf2a75.jpg

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Evening all, not posted in here for a while but still watching the charts! In the very short term, it's looking a pretty ugly week coming up - in the mid term, looking increasingly likely to have a spell of settled weather which at this time of year should mean warm weather but I'm still nervous about a reappearing Greenland ridge sucking up heights quickly in that direction. When the Greenland High gets established once... it so often comes back again and again at this time of year, doesn't it?! 

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16 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Evening all, not posted in here for a while but still watching the charts! In the very short term, it's looking a pretty ugly week coming up - in the mid term, looking increasingly likely to have a spell of settled weather which at this time of year should mean warm weather but I'm still nervous about a reappearing Greenland ridge sucking up heights quickly in that direction. When the Greenland High gets established once... it so often comes back again and again at this time of year, doesn't it?! 

Yes.

Improvements today seem linked to a 'spoiler' low which moves across the top of the HP trying to ridge N through the UK...This can be seen here-

image.thumb.png.323ea4fb1ad7a8136dc2194fa661fdde.png

Essentially the models have worked out that there will be more energy in the N arm of the jet than they first thought (where have we heard that before??)

What we don't know at present is whether this will be a temporary hold up to heights establishing once more at a more N'ly latitude.

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According to the gfs over Sun > Tues the ridge moves east over the UK with the centre of the high cell in the North Sea, So a few dry days with the temps creeping above average, particularly in the north

gfs-eur-vort500_z500-7835200.thumb.png.2f4798f12b4d500f0e3543686451ce59.pnggfs-eur-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-7835200.thumb.png.0f15546747df2a95b80ebb75a37b561c.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c_anom-7846000.thumb.png.6bd53c293fee5bf87d12521cb3fb778c.png

From here it starts to get tricky with a fair bit of energy running south of the trough south east of Greenland so best left for the time being

gfs-nhemi-z500_speed-7997200.thumb.png.69622192e1502a23e55ebcf0eb2c427b.png

Edited by knocker
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Next Wednesday, and things are still on-track::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.feaa6b3eeeee5174a75908f5cc4f74a7.pngimage.thumb.png.b740e2d8101a5be5e02152b6ccdc028d.png  

And the back-end looks ready for an HP reload:

image.thumb.png.68cbbbf14ee523ea97b2addfda045380.pngimage.thumb.png.84438bc76b28214cc45260b56b7629f4.png 

FV3 for next Wednesday:

image.thumb.png.7922a2d02a9e7e942b96b464ee4af57f.pngimage.thumb.png.2dae17f6fbc231c9e17033486ee0a12e.png 

And the very end also looks set for a continuation, as a new HP moves in:


image.thumb.png.d3869b4e0eb8e26b805fa30d1bef8dd2.pngimage.thumb.png.9466cc377cdbeaa81493c3e3ac5cea70.png

Ensembles not bad for warmth, but not-so-good for rainfall:

image.thumb.png.4557bf958b7275503ff6db2326a73a3f.png image.thumb.png.c908221eb72b711a6b8e613543987203.png

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The Gfs 00z operational is a cracker beyond this week with high pressure domination and even a chance of plumes..much more like summer before summer even starts..the GEFS 00z mean looks really good too!!?

Edited by Frosty.
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Although it could prove to be foolish to try and second guess what a model run is going to do next, the Ecm 0z from T+120 could turn into a beauty..I have a good feeling about this!!??

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Edited by Frosty.
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 I spock too soon!!..this is the  reason I don't usually comment on a run until it's completed!!!?

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Edited by Frosty.
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The ecm also has a pleasant Monday > Weds with the high cell centred around the low countries before starting to weaken and migrate north as the energy flows from the NW and E start confusing the picture Temps rising from high teens to low 20s

t156.thumb.png.a216db96e5f60427ae5b62bec031dc86.pngt180.thumb.png.e1880ab439bf909357fa2b0ffaaa5ee8.pngt204.thumb.png.4f1c4793893f98075261613ebeff4d20.png

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