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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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Just now, Milhouse said:

If this is to be the eventual outcome then it is some turnaround. Quite remarkable how we've gone from chilly northeasterlies to a plume in the space of 24-48 hours.

Remember early June 1975? image.thumb.png.40828c2ff967d9d65a558168ffe6fe18.png ?

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Extracts posted last week on closed thread:   The other part of the equation is the seasonal transition within the stratosphere from its winter default vortex position to its summer state. T

Greetings to you all! ? A glistening new thread for the month of May and early Summer! As we head deeper into Spring and into Summer (though I guess for some, May could be classed as a Summer

There are no apologies for self quoting a significant extract of the post the other day because its central focus becomes more primary to how NWP evolves in the remainder of this month and into the st

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Merely an observation but apart from the trough in mid Atlantic another key player in this evening's output from the gfs is the development of the upper trough over the eastern Mediterranean.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7846000.thumb.png.be884a35de3d14777e19b4e47b7562e7.pnggfs-eur-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-7846000.thumb.png.78c71bf8385b5042eac77a489dd8f86b.pnggfs-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-8008000.thumb.png.fcb6151d2e14d5f559bbf68cfbf643ef.png

 

Edited by knocker
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The 12z is looking almost identical to early summer of last year. Continuous continental feed of warmth, with high instability incursions clipping the South and Southwest and a scandi/Euro blocking high. 

Fantastic weather it would be with crystal clear blue skies and low-ish humidity except the SW

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2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Hey Pete, steady ya horses.... Let's get the heat in first ??

Well we got the cold in so surely the heat will follow:oldgood:

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1 hour ago, Milhouse said:

If this is to be the eventual outcome then it is some turnaround. Quite remarkable how we've gone from chilly northeasterlies to a plume in the space of 24-48 hours.

Yup and it makes them comparisons to 2012 very premature! With heat building over Spain it only takes a very small change in positioning of high pressure to tap in that warmth. Given we are getting closer to the reliable timeframe some warmth is looking likely but how prolonged and just how warm / hot is still up for question given the contrasts between ECM and GFS.

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The energy route around the amplifying ridge(s) to the east Med trough. Now what;s the trough south of Greenland going to do?

gfs-nhemi-z500_speed-7792000.thumb.png.6c6dabfee49f4cf30d9b40a5db9490e0.png

ah yes...now that looks familiar

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8008000.thumb.png.836314967c1b2b5b19127f933cfeab08.png

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And here endeth the lesson according to the FV3:

image.thumb.png.1b8de673fd373fe4dfe41cd7f94660cc.pngimage.thumb.png.85813b56b76fde9efaa0e4fbe59d5d62.png 

Once the cold air has been properly displaced, it's hard (though not impossible!) for it to reestablish itself...? Like @markyo, I'm conscious of a growing problem with water supplies, should dry weather predominate for too long...every silver-lining has a cloud??

 

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6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And here endeth the lesson according to the FV3:

image.thumb.png.1b8de673fd373fe4dfe41cd7f94660cc.pngimage.thumb.png.85813b56b76fde9efaa0e4fbe59d5d62.png 

Once the cold air has been properly displaced, it's hard (though not impossible!) for it to reestablish itself...? Like @markyo, I'm conscious of a growing problem with water supplies, should dry weather predominate for too long...every silver-lining has a cloud??

 

The FV3 is a joke model, it's got cold bias built into it..having said that, so do I!!??

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Some of these charts are looking stunning lads and lasses ?.  My weather station recorded 0.2C last night, which is colder than expected for December, let alone May!  Someone give the weather gods a reminder winter ended 2 months ago yeah? ?

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ECM steady at T 144, similar to UKMO 

image.thumb.jpg.84220c11cdd2bcf100a96a13e2388172.jpg

As we wait to see how this one pans out, how about this bad boy, P4 of the GEM ensembles at T 204:

image.thumb.jpg.35887d46cca462a986aa43d87788b7d9.jpg

Edit, that P4 from the GEM appears to be from 0z run, sorry, still pretty impressive though.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Hope everyone has had a good (as possible) Monday.  These ensembles for my area (Cardiff) are looking very promising.  I think I speak for the majority that the prospect of warmer weather is welcomed with open arms.

Cardiff May.png

Edited by Earthshine
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ECM T192:

image.thumb.jpg.8b25f3ea9cbf4ec38181df7d49d174d7.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3d97dca2c755e37d0f99e4c850837ac2.jpg

Liking the angle of attack here, with the warmer air further west it should ensure it hits the UK even with a bit of drift from west to east.

I thought it was only in winter we commented on every frame of the ECM,  but this does look to me like the switch from spring to summer this year, hence the interest.

Edited by Mike Poole
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I said all along that I was doubtful about the solution that the op runs kept showing with the cut off low moving into the near continent. The only thing that seems to have been certain over the past few days is the high pressure build next weekend- there was always every chance that the high would build in a more favourable position for warmth than many believed would happen.

It's by no means decided yet but things are certainly moving in the right direction- highly promising runs tonight from all the major models. A lot of serious heat looks like building over Spain in around a week's time which could put us in prime plume territory.

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ECM T240:

image.thumb.jpg.996658a500f5fca4c3737039fb82e3ff.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ef6e18dc68384ae9caeb5e70f298466a.jpg

OK so the heat is muted (850 chart) but the plot that looks like one of those bathtub ducks is perhaps more relevant here, possible high pressure reload on the back of this, the holy grail for heat is the self reloading high, you only have to look back to last year.  interesting run, and interesting suite of runs, the 12s, as a whole.  Welcome to summer. ?

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4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Awesome stuff folks... Place is buzzing a bit like winter time... Everyone pulling together like one big happy family.. I give you all a round of applause for your exciting and enthusiastic posts... Oh it will be interesting to see if anyweather has anything to say on the subject this evening.... ??

Imagine what it'll be like (in here) should the incoming plume verify!:shok:

Edited by Ed Stone
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