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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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So, the GFS at T+384 (the overall pattern is what matters, not the details?) has the last(?) of the PV remnants pinned near the Arctic, allowing warmer continental air to exert a greater influence:

image.thumb.png.26c6c7be4985f765b4a695133ea1ff8e.pngimage.thumb.png.725e133826a70fc84ff6284f87aeeff7.png 

The FV3 appears to reach a similar (if less convincing) position; so, once this week's cack has finally become an unwanted memory, things ought to start looking up, more generally...?


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The ensembles paint their usual confused picture, with little indication of any major warm-up and a wee drop of rain:

image.thumb.png.8beb49a6cb8305b3957524307d079b22.pngimage.thumb.png.958bf8f0453d17d125f7dde1ef42c199.png :cc_confused:

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Extracts posted last week on closed thread:   The other part of the equation is the seasonal transition within the stratosphere from its winter default vortex position to its summer state. T

Greetings to you all! ? A glistening new thread for the month of May and early Summer! As we head deeper into Spring and into Summer (though I guess for some, May could be classed as a Summer

There are no apologies for self quoting a significant extract of the post the other day because its central focus becomes more primary to how NWP evolves in the remainder of this month and into the st

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Whoa the Ecm 00z ensemble mean sure is looking peachy from T+168 hours!?

EDM1-168.GIF

EDM1-192.GIF

EDM1-216.GIF

EDM0-216.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

Indeed Frosty; the GFS also looks good for next Monday -- my only caveat being that it look eerily similar for how this last weekend was supposed to evolve...?:shok:

image.thumb.png.19d422122bb498206d29b4cfa4515f3c.pngimage.thumb.png.04a6c5a0c482f6bdc256ed48535e79b7.png 

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Good to see that the 'cold air containment bulkhead' has sprung a leak down the western Atlantic - rather there than here!?

image.thumb.png.c9873e6bcd5230805ad8f1e62da7e520.pngimage.thumb.png.78a01b3703749cb594bdb119a6860845.png 

 

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                                image.thumb.png.39b6d2e0691058d51e9de2e4f08b7d5b.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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24 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Collective *sigh of relief* can be heard all around this morning.   Much better GFS 06z

Tentative steps in the right direction compared to a few days ago. The ECM mean is indicating temperatures should be back up to average,maybe above by day 9 and 10 once we cut off the northerly flow.

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Well, the FV3 does take a more circuitous route, in getting there...But we could find ourselves on the 'cusp of something special'. Again!?

image.thumb.png.73cbebe72dd03c458763fdef5d6223f4.png image.thumb.png.b7ed5223f7867af2806638f785043c1e.png                                                                                image.thumb.png.4ec329318aeabab0480a3c74663e7432.png 

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6z much better come the end of the weekend, and things improve next week. Beyond that, perhaps an extensive scandy high with winds coming from a warm SE continent! Things currently looking much more rosey folks! There ain't no limit to how good things could become... 

gfs-0-168.png

gfs-0-192.png

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gfs-0-360.png

All_these_people_saying_how_communism_doesnt_work_and_im__6148ad0560c062e1d1eb3b51e30477cb.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Whoa the Ecm 00z ensemble mean sure is looking peachy from T+168 hours!?

EDM1-168.GIF

EDM1-192.GIF

EDM1-216.GIF

EDM0-216.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

At this time scale it needs to be very similar to the 12z Yesterday to give any grounds for it being close to what we may have.

My old hobby horse of compare like with like down to about 144h.

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The GEFS 6z mean really has lift off ???from around Sunday onwards, becoming warmer and anticyclonic nationwide  for quite a while!!?

GFSAVGEU06_156_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_180_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_204_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_204_2.png

GFSAVGEU06_228_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_252_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_372_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_372_2.png

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This is the pattern from the closer North Atlantic viewpoint which is a bit elusive when it comes to a possible  surface analysis on lthis morning's and last nights Anomaly. Perhaps some elucidation this evening

index.thumb.png.8d8db5d026b40b170f1afd0522c9f5e8.png

Edited by knocker
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If this is to be the eventual outcome then it is some turnaround. Quite remarkable how we've gone from chilly northeasterlies to a plume in the space of 24-48 hours.

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